Very large variance swings

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Two20Two21

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I’m experiencing what I believe is unusually large variance, again and again, and I would like some other opinions. I play 25NL to 100NL both regular 6-max and 6-max zone on Bovada. I’ve put in a lot of work reading, analyzing hands via HM2 and Leakbuster. I feel like I know poker pretty well but my results don’t back that up.

If you look at my HM2 graph, I have some large positive and negative runs over 450,000 hands. After a small upswing I ran into the following in order:

1) A 3000 bb down swing.
2) A 5000 bb up swing.
3) A 4000 bb down swing.
4) A 3500 bb up swing.
5) A 5000 bb down swing.
6) A 4500 bb up swing.

My variance in HM2 is 7.34 which translates to 73.4/100 hands. When I plug this in to a variance simulator, I get the attached simulation graph. In the graph (and I’ve run it many times) generally the largest swings are about 2000 bb. Worst case simulations over 450,000 hands can be worse than what I’m seeing.

Finally, if you look at my Leakbuster analysis over the last 100,000 hands, an A seems pretty good. I keep telling myself that I just need to tough it out and I’ll break through. After 450,000 hands its getting hard to do that.
Am I the typical poker player who is not nearly as good as he thinks he is or am I the hard luck kid?
 

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ConDeck

ConDeck

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You say you play 25-100NL, are all 3 represented by this graph? Can you isolate for each stake (25,50,100)?
 
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Two20Two21

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25NL Zone and 100NL Zone

Here are the graphs for 100NL zone and 25 NL zone.
 

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John A

John A

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Poker can be brutal sometimes. You can play near perfect and just be in a groove where you're holding the 2nd nuts far too often, or not getting paid when you do hit hands. I'm sure you know that, so it's really hard to quantify how much bad variance someone is adsorbing.

That being said, you have leaks. If you're playing optimally, you can absorb a decent amount of variance. Keep in mind, on a site like Bovada where people will gamble more, you're susceptible to more swings since people will get their money in more often, but they still have equity. And when you hit pockets when that equity is being realized more than it should it can cause some serious frustration.

A couple of suggestions:

1) Shorten your sessions. Don't play really long sessions, especially at zone.
2) Don't play zone. :) Focus on other games for awhile where you can get reads.
3) Continue to work on your game and focus on a couple of your biggest leaks and really dedicate yourself to banging them out.
4) Work on tilt, and subtle tilt. Make sure you're checking in w/ yourself and being a good quitter when sessions don't go your way.
5) Consider getting a coach. If you play another 300k hands w/o really knowing what you're doing wrong, vs hiring someone who can likely make good adjustments, and you play that 300k hands better, the coaching will pay for itself many times over.

Based on your graphs you're probably absorbing some, but not that much. It's just play that needs to be corrected.

You're welcome to join our free study group as well. Talking and sweating other players is a great way to re-think your approach and learn:
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214//index109.html

Good luck.
 
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theevildub

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Poker swings are inevitable. Ive had times when i won 5000 in 2 months, then lost 3000 in the next 3 months playing EXACTLY the same way i did when i won the 5000. Sometimes you are REALLY lucky and getting good cards, hitting your draws, etc. and other times you keep running into straights, flushes, and better hands than you are holding. Its a beast of a game !!

but yes, even daniel negreanu and phil ivey have big downswings as well. its just poker.
 
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Toomin

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Variance is a bitch. Saying that, she can be your friend too.

I think at the amount you play, you need to get a coach or someone to look at your play to help you.

(im a live game player, i know online is different, but its the same)
 
detroitjunkie

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I agree with staying away from Zone until you get a better grasp on the game. Zone is ALL about getting good hands, and that just doesnt happen very often. Play it for a bit, but not long periods, and not as your only game.
 
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MinhANguyen

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Zone is very wacky, and I have large swings from them too. People are way too aggro and are much better players than the cash game players. They also have a tendency to want to outplay you a lot. 3-betting light, floating with garbage (even multi-way, which is super annoying), stabbing at flops with air, calling a 3-bet IP with trash hands to outplay you postflop, 4-betting light, double barreling with air, etc. This is much less frequent in the cash games at 100NL Bovada. I'd get the hell out of Zone in a heartbeat if Bovada would let us multi-table more than 4 tables....
 
bitowl

bitowl

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Most likely you hit the normal 15-20 BI downswing that happens once or twice per 100k hands but you tilt and play like shit making it twice as bad.
 
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Two20Two21

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Zone is very wacky, and I have large swings from them too. People are way too aggro and are much better players than the cash game players. They also have a tendency to want to outplay you a lot. 3-betting light, floating with garbage (even multi-way, which is super annoying), stabbing at flops with air, calling a 3-bet IP with trash hands to outplay you postflop, 4-betting light, double barreling with air, etc. This is much less frequent in the cash games at 100NL Bovada. I'd get the hell out of Zone in a heartbeat if Bovada would let us multi-table more than 4 tables....

That matches my observations as well. What I find incredible is in November I was dominating. Then one day it changed. It was as if there was suddenly a new player pool that I couldn't beat.
 
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Two20Two21

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Most likely you hit the normal 15-20 BI downswing that happens once or twice per 100k hands but you tilt and play like shit making it twice as bad.

I have no doubt that you are at least partially right. I'm definitely tilted on the down swings.
 
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