Variance v just being rubbish :-)

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TopFuel

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Hi

I have been playing poker for about 10 years now and had some success live and online but have never been a consistent winner.
I am having yet another go at grinding out cash games and building a bankroll but I can never be sure if my results are telling me I should pack it in or if they are just part of normal cash game variance. As an example I have started playing Fast Forward on PP at 2/4 cents always buying in for $5 initially. So far I have played for 25 days 58 sessions and 13000 hands. I am currently down $29 with a PTBB of -5.55. Around the 2500 hand mark I was in profit with a PTBB of 10 but since then it has been a gradual downhill slide.
I cannot be sure if this is to be expected or if it is telling me my game needs a lot of work or both.
Would welcome constructive advice / opinions but please if you feel compelled to hurl abuse see a therapist instead
Thanks all

Mike :)
 
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Goathair

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You could be running a bit poorly, but you may have some leaks in your game as well. I wouldn't get too down about your results just yet, but just make sure you are playing solid, and put in some more hands.
I recommend checking out Leakbuster. It helped me clean up alot of areas where i was bleeding money, and some things that i really didn't know were leaks. It has some great training content that correspond with the leaks you are displaying. And a lot of filters you can run to see things like hands where you are missing value, etc.

Good luck!
 
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TopFuel

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Hi Goathair

Thank you very much for getting my very first post of to a good start. I know I need to use these forums but have always been put off in the past by people just using them as a stage to air their obvious personality difficulties. Your advice has given me some solace too and I will check out the site you mention. I find it so frustrating that after some 4000 hours of playing this bloody game and reading countless books and having a very high IQ I am still not a winning player and yet it seems so many barely out of nappies are making a fortune.
Thanks again
 
JCgrind

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o_O

IMO change your attitude. You're not even doing that badly being down a couple buy ins over 13k hands. To give you an idea of how swingy this game is, I literally have 5 buy in swings every 2000 hands. You also can't complain that a lot of guys who are "barely out of nappies" are making millions while you're losing. The two are not comparable, even simply in regards to volume. I myself for example have only been playing for 2 years, but due to the insanely high amount of hands I put in per week, I've probably had more experience playing poker than youve had in 10 years

How many tables do you play at once? I'm guessing only one? You will never get anywhere with online poker simply playing one table. Unless your EV tells you something dramatically different over the sample, we can pretty safely assume that your have some big leaks- probably to do with sizing, extracting value and your range, since these games are relatively easy to beat that you should come out ahead by the end of the month pretty much regardless of how badly you run.
 
Reptar7

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So your down not quite 6 BI's over 13,000 hands? That isn't too bad and could just be variance. I mean I once lost with aces all in preflop 22 out of 26 times I got it over like a month period. 6 BI swings and worse happen, sometimes within 1000 hands.

What matters is getting it in ahead and playing correctly. I would really recommend using a HUD and checking EV (which isn't the end all amazing stat, but it tells you something).
 
JCgrind

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I mean I once lost with aces all in preflop 22 out of 26 times I got it over like a month period.

:O omfg lol that's so raw. I had a 20BI downswing today, bu that's nothing in comparison. You poor poor bastard!
 
MediaBLITZ

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Hey Top Fuel,

If you are not of the attitude that your game should always be worked on then you should indeed pack it in. While profit is the most important stat it is not a stat you can directly address - it is just a symptom of other things. Same as a pro sports team that has a losing record. Yeah, that's the bottom line but it's all the other things that contribute to that. Need to look at how well you are doing all those things that make up a winning record and that is something that is an ongoing process. If you are not willing to do that you will probably get run over.

Now I have probably painted myself into a corner of listing those things but sorry, no time right now - at work.
 
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Personally, when I have a big downswing it starts with variance and ends with bad play. The best way to check is to review your key hands to see if they were misplayed. Good luck.
 
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TopFuel

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Thanks for the comments so far. Sounds like I might be just experiencing variance although I undoubtedly still have a lot to learn/tighten up on. Also I guess Fast Forward (Zoom on poker stars) is probably not the best place to play cash games. I will probably return to standard games.
 
honeycrush

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Hi Mike

Exactly the same thing happened to me on PP Fast Forward. Did very well at first and then lost several buy ins. I think you're right when you say the variance is greater on these tables.

I'm just a newbie to poker but I think it's probably best to play on 2 (or more if you can handle it) tables rather then speed tables unless you are extremely confident in your game.

Good luck at the tables!
 
Arjonius

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It's not always as simple as attributing losses to variance. For example, a barely breakeven player who runs bad will lose. Just to use sample numbers, say someone with a long-term win rate of 1BB/100 runs 3BB below for a while. Obviously, that's -2BB/100 during that stretch.

Now take someone who's 5 or 10BB/100 long-term. And have him run 3BB below for the same number of hands. He still wins, just less.

Part of what I'm getting at here is that blaming variance when you lose doesn't really help you, even when it's accurate to do so. It happens to everyone, but the better you are, the less likely it is to result in actually losing money. At NL4, it's certainly possible to have enough advantage to at least breakeven except during your very worst streaks of running badly.

Also, when you see statements like "I have 10 buyin downswings all the time", you want to consider the context, which unfortunately, isn't always available. For instance, let's say someone 10-tables for 10 sessions and loses 10 buyins. That's 10% of the money he put into play. Then compare to someone who loses the same 10 buyins in the same 10 sessions but 2-tabling. That's 50%.

These two downswings are the same amount, but are rather different situations when you look not just at magnitude but also at the broader context.
 
JCgrind

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It's not always as simple as attributing losses to variance. For example, a barely breakeven player who runs bad will lose. Just to use sample numbers, say someone with a long-term win rate of 1BB/100 runs 3BB below for a while. Obviously, that's -2BB/100 during that stretch.

Now take someone who's 5 or 10BB/100 long-term. And have him run 3BB below for the same number of hands. He still wins, just less.

Part of what I'm getting at here is that blaming variance when you lose doesn't really help you, even when it's accurate to do so. It happens to everyone, but the better you are, the less likely it is to result in actually losing money. At NL4, it's certainly possible to have enough advantage to at least breakeven except during your very worst streaks of running badly.

Also, when you see statements like "I have 10 buyin downswings all the time", you want to consider the context, which unfortunately, isn't always available. For instance, let's say someone 10-tables for 10 sessions and loses 10 buyins. That's 10% of the money he put into play. Then compare to someone who loses the same 10 buyins in the same 10 sessions but 2-tabling. That's 50%.

These two downswings are the same amount, but are rather different situations when you look not just at magnitude but also at the broader context.

+1
 
acky100

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What Arj said, i think i could teach a monkey to never have a losing month at nl4, variance can definitely affect your results over small samples like (10k hands) but you should be able to have a good idea of how youre doing over a month and if you're down a decent bit you probably have big leaks. Infact anyone who plays nl4 has big leaks, just keep working on your game gl.
 
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