Variance at crushing levels

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bull

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Is variance more prevalent when you move up the stakes or can it happen at the stakes you're "Crushing!"

I'm guessing it handled easier when you move up the stakes. You decide if it's just bad luck or you're not good enough for the stakes you're playing.

How do you handle it when you have 2 losing months at the stakes you were consistently beating for the last 6 or 8 months?
 
vinnie

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Variance happens all the time regardless of what stakes you play. Negative variance might be less noticeable when you're crushing a stake because you're picking so many +EV spots that they reduce the downswing.
 
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bull

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So how do you explain or handle variance?

let's say you're have 6 or 8 winning months, with a losing day here and there.

How do you reconcile that with 2 months of losing with a winning day here and there?

Better question maybe, how do you tactically prepare for and handle that situation?
 
Aces2w1n

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If you keep a good bankroll management it should be just the same no matter what level your at. It might become easier as you get higher because your experience may count for something.

I think if your losing for 2 months perhaps you need to recheck or rethink your strategy, perhaps the players your playing have woken up to you or the normal strat everyone gets is making your strat exploitable... time for a change?
 
JusSumguy

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How do you explain something with no rhyme or reason?

The best we can do is recognize it.

-
 
Aces2w1n

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I don't know atm my AK is getting crushed atm :) someone UTG is calling my preflop raises with A10off and pockets 10s and they are hitting hard against me ... where if things were going my way they'd have AJ or AQ and i'd crush them :)
 
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IClickButtons

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Is variance more prevalent when you move up the stakes or can it happen at the stakes you're "Crushing!"

I'm guessing it handled easier when you move up the stakes. You decide if it's just bad luck or you're not good enough for the stakes you're playing.

How do you handle it when you have 2 losing months at the stakes you were consistently beating for the last 6 or 8 months?

I would say variance is more prevalent when you move up stakes. You'd assume the players are better and making less mistakes, not to mention the games will be more aggressive overall.
 
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Variance is higher when you move up, because the gap in skill level is much thinner. When you have smaller winrate, it takes longer to come out of a downswing.
 
blueskies

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From personal experience, my worst days are when I am at a fishy table where no one folds and I am constantly outdrawn.

Yes, the regs will say fishes is what you want at your table blah blah blah. That is true only when luck isn't against you.

It is extremely difficult to win when you cannot bluff profitably and you always hit air on the board. It is not possible to win in this situation. So just chalk it up to variance and get them another day.

The other day I was at a table with this guy who was playing 70/36 but had quadrupled up. I saw him take out everything with BS hands. Yes he lost a few small pots but won way more than he lost.

He was calling 4 bets with stuff like J4os and winning with 4 card nut straights. One hand he cleaned me out when he called my 3bet with JTos and flopped another str. I had AK and everything went in the middle on the flop.

So how do you beat these guys? You can't. Not when they're running like gods.
 
aero87

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The variance is going to be higher (dollar wise) because of the higher stakes played. On a graph losing 5 buy ins at 5NL is not as noticeable as losing 5 buy ins at 10NL.

Also the higher stakes and better players will be less likely to get it all in with hands like top pair top kicker where as in the smaller stakes they will call you all day.
 
Cafeman

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Variance is higher when you move up, because the gap in skill level is much thinner.
Pretty much this isn't it? Variance is going to have a bigger effect when your WR is lower. Your WR is usually lower as you move up, hence the oft seen increase in variance as you move up. Increase your WR to reduce your variance.

Perhaps it might be helpful if we think of variance as something that swirls around your WR line. If your WR line is like a proud boner, then the variation is never going to be big enough to drag it down to a flacid disappointment. However, if you start all limp and ridicule worthy, variance is only likely going to make things worse. That in turn might affect your confidence and then what? Viagra I guess. Hold on, I think I just lost my train of thought...
 
honeycrush

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Pretty much this isn't it? Variance is going to have a bigger effect when your WR is lower. Your WR is usually lower as you move up, hence the oft seen increase in variance as you move up. Increase your WR to reduce your variance.
Perhaps it might be helpful if we think of variance as something that swirls around your WR line. If your WR line is like a proud boner, then the variation is never going to be big enough to drag it down to a flacid disappointment. However, if you start all limp and ridicule worthy, variance is only likely going to make things worse. That in turn might affect your confidence and then what? Viagra I guess. Hold on, I think I just lost my train of thought...

Ha ha! Love this analogy! :D
 
TakMits

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based on a book i have read there is an example about how variance effect

A 2 bb/100 winner (marginal)
A 5 bb/100 winner (solid)
A 8 bb/100 winner (crushing)

so Variance of an 8 bb/100 Winner:
largest statistically possible downswing is around 20
buy-ins. The frequencies are better though.
There is an 80% chance this player will experience a 4.5 buy-in downswing.
There is a 50% chance this player will experience a 6 buy-in downswing.
There is a 20% chance this player will experience an 8 buy-in downswing.

His largest possible break-even stretch is right around 39,000 hands. However, now there is a 50% chance that his longest break-even stretch will be a mere 7,500 hands.
 
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DunningKruger

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Those numbers depend on the number of hands. Over an indefinite number of hands, the odds that an 8bb/100 winner goes on an 8 buy in downswing is 100%. Something to keep in mind.
 
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DunningKruger

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I would say variance is more prevalent when you move up stakes. You'd assume the players are better and making less mistakes, not to mention the games will be more aggressive overall.

Indeed. And while aggressive games entail a lot more variance by nature, this is actually mitigated to an extent by being aggressive yourself. Most players, including many who are very good and play quite high, don't fully understand that.

For anyone who just takes a look at their graph for a moment, your red line should for the most part trend fairly consistently in one particular direction without nearly as many spikes and large swings as your blue line and your aiev line as well. It won't have the variance your showdown winnings does ofc because when other players fold, the only possible outcome is that the pot gets pushed in your direction. It's guaranteed money. If you're an 8bb/100 winner where most of that comes from non showdown winnings, your variance and thus your std dev is lower than an 8bb/100 winner with a red line looking like the right half of Everest.

This is counter intuitive for some because of the notion that TAG players enjoy lower variance than LAGs (even though good LAGs potentially enjoy higher win rates). That notion is more or less correct but being loose doesn't necessarily mean being more aggressive. There are also a lot of players who consider themselves tight/aggressive but are really just weak/tight players.
 
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Just believe the rule of probability and consistently play A game
 
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