re: Poker & Variance at crushing levels
Originally Posted by IClickButtons
I would say variance is more prevalent when you move up stakes. You'd assume the players are better and making less mistakes, not to mention the games will be more aggressive overall.
Indeed. And while aggressive games entail a lot more variance by nature, this is actually mitigated to an extent by being aggressive yourself. Most players, including many who are very good and play quite high, don't fully understand that.
For anyone who just takes a look at their graph for a moment, your red line should for the most part trend fairly consistently in one particular direction without nearly as many spikes and large swings as your blue line and your aiev line as well. It won't have the variance your showdown winnings does ofc because when other players fold, the only possible outcome is that the pot gets pushed in your direction. It's guaranteed money. If you're an 8bb/100 winner where most of that comes from non showdown winnings, your variance and thus your std dev is lower than an 8bb/100 winner with a red line looking like the right half of Everest.
This is counter intuitive for some because of the notion that TAG players enjoy lower variance than LAGs (even though good LAGs potentially enjoy higher win rates). That notion is more or less correct but being loose doesn't necessarily mean being more aggressive. There are also a lot of players who consider themselves tight/aggressive but are really just weak/tight players.