Variance

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marcusthorton259

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How long can variance run for? I've been playing no limit hold em at the casinos on the 1/3 no limit tables and haven't been able to had a winning day in a while now. Probably down around $2300 due to the recent losses I've had in the last 1-2 months.

I play a very tight strategy pre flop and I also play very much based on position and only raise with good hands pre flop and play extremely aggressively once I do hit. I have had some ridiculous things beat me such as flopping a straight against a pair and the guy goes on to turn/river for a full house and other ridiculous beats. What's your advice?
 
Ducky7

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Keep at it mate, Poker can be a cruel mistress, during May i went through basically all of it running terribly and getting hit hard by some variance and thought it was never going to end. You got to keep playing your best poker and telling yourself it will change, and believe that as well. As to how long it can go on for God knows it could go on for another hour or a week you just don't know, as long as you keep confident and don't let it effect your game you should be ok in the end :)
 
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cheaptrix

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i just started focusing on live cash games late last year. so far it seems like live games have much less variance than online. over my last 400 hours i had two 3 buy-in downswings. from reading about other live players most have not suffered more than 7 buy-in downswings although i have heard of worse.

it's hard to say if it's just variance without more info... one thing i do that might help you. when i log my hours, i will rehash the big pots. this way i can look back and see if i was just unlucky or if i have been getting it in bad too often.
 
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marcusthorton259

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Well let me ask you guys this then....for $1/$3 no limit hold em, what is the most successful strategy you guys use (pre flop) that garners your success?
 
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sactokid544

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How long can variance run for? I've been playing no limit hold em at the casinos on the 1/3 no limit tables and haven't been able to had a winning day in a while now. Probably down around $2300 due to the recent losses I've had in the last 1-2 months.

I play a very tight strategy pre flop and I also play very much based on position and only raise with good hands pre flop and play extremely aggressively once I do hit. I have had some ridiculous things beat me such as flopping a straight against a pair and the guy goes on to turn/river for a full house and other ridiculous beats. What's your advice?
In theory, it can run forever, albeit, unlikely.

I think for you, the biggest thing you can change is your psychological approach. Because you are posting a thread like this, you are obviously frustrated.

As you state, you say you "only" raise with good hands (in my opinion, I think this is a leak in your game but that's for a different thread). The problem might be that when you raise with AA, you are "expecting" to win. And you do.. precisely 4/5 times. But because you are "expecting" to win (aka win 100%) that 20% failure rate is going to suck that much more.

Change your view on things. Play the same style but expect your opponent to win. Might make losing easier. And make your future decisions better.
 
Ducky7

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Change your view on things. Play the same style but expect your opponent to win. Might make losing easier. And make your future decisions better.

You should never expect your opponent to win, because A. it will effect your decision making and B. Thinking you are going to lose is never a good position to be in poker. You should be expecting to hit your cards, in tourneys expecting to win flips. Negative thoughts are bad.
 
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You should never expect your opponent to win, because A. it will effect your decision making and B. Thinking you are going to lose is never a good position to be in poker. You should be expecting to hit your cards, in tourneys expecting to win flips. Negative thoughts are bad.
lol.

No. I'm not saying you have to be negative. It was an example to eliminate the mindset of "expecting" to win every occurance. I think that 'expecting' to win is even worse because the tilt-factor you experience during a bad run can cause you to lose more money.

My point is that the OP should find a way (whichever way he chooses is best) to eliminate frustration when losing while going in with the best hand. You can't win them all. And when you 'know you are going to lose x amount of times', it makes it easier to cope. "Knowing you are going to lose" is what I mean by 'expecting to lose'.

It might be better put that you should "root for your opponent". That might help being frustrated. Plus it makes you look friendly at the table. :) There is no luck in poker. Mathematically you will win the majority and lose the minority of the time.
 
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You should never expect your opponent to win, because A. it will effect your decision making and B. Thinking you are going to lose is never a good position to be in poker. You should be expecting to hit your cards, in tourneys expecting to win flips. Negative thoughts are bad.

Perhaps a better philosophy is, be prepared to accept the worst outcome from the cards.

If I was OP, I would take a break from poker.Try sports betting or another outlet for your gambling buzz.

I poker coach might identify for you what is going wrong and return your confidence for when you come back to the tables.
 
Ducky7

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lol.

No. I'm not saying you have to be negative. It was an example to eliminate the mindset of "expecting" to win every occurance. I think that 'expecting' to win is even worse because the tilt-factor you experience during a bad run can cause you to lose more money.

My point is that the OP should find a way (whichever way he chooses is best) to eliminate frustration when losing while going in with the best hand. You can't win them all. And when you 'know you are going to lose x amount of times', it makes it easier to cope. "Knowing you are going to lose" is what I mean by 'expecting to lose'.

It might be better put that you should "root for your opponent". That might help being frustrated. Plus it makes you look friendly at the table. :) There is no luck in poker. Mathematically you will win the majority and lose the minority of the time.

O, ok i misunderstood what you meant fair enough, i agree with this and something i employ ha!
 
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sactokid544

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O, ok i misunderstood what you meant fair enough, i agree with this and something i employ ha!
Good. We are on the same page.

I think the root of OP's problem is based on psychology.

I also feel he has some other leaks. So I think OP should also maybe post hands in hand analysis as well.
 
Ducky7

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Ye i think you've hit the nail on the head
 
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I see OP is relatively new here so gotta ask-- have you been able to win consistently prior to this bad month? Live 1/3 tables are fairly soft so if youlve been up and down..and now on a major downswing..probably a lot more to it than variance.

Do you find yourself winning smallpots but then being behind/losing the big ones?

TAG is the way to go on those stakes..but there's more to it than just playing when u hit. Do you continuation bet when you miss? If so, how often?

All that aside, variance could last forever...but id say if you lose more than 5 to 10 buyins on a table that soft, ya have a lot to learn. As long as you're striving to improve and not just shrugging and blaming variance, it'll come around. (Wayy too many people do the latter...when reallly they should be focusing on their play)
 
Ducky7

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All that aside, variance could last forever...but id say if you lose more than 5 to 10 buyins on a table that soft, ya have a lot to learn. As long as you're striving to improve and not just shrugging and blaming variance, it'll come around. (Wayy too many people do the latter...when reallly they should be focusing on their play)

+ 1 this, sometimes people don't realise the difference and it takes someone else spotting it and telling them, and then that person actually listening. I've seen fish limp UTG with A4 call a raise from a nit (live game) then stack off on an A high board and be like omg i run so bad when the nit shows AK ha. Then they are like wtf, and like what is going on, and being told, yo, you play bad and then they kick off ha.

So be willing to be told you play bad or have leaks (not saying you do but people on here aren't saying it for no reason)
 
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marcusthorton259

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Well I mean the beats I've taken have consistently been to worse hands somehow lucking me. I play the tight-aggressive pre flop strategy that most books recommend for small stakes no limit hold em and that is basically what I have been playing. I play from position and essentially just play the good hands and raise them and bet and play when I hit. I rarely ever bluff.....is there a specific strategy I'm missing?
 
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cheaptrix

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I play from position and essentially just play the good hands and raise them and bet and play when I hit. I rarely ever bluff.....is there a specific strategy I'm missing?

so you play "fit or fold"?... you might be missing some value in the small pots. most are willing to c/f if they miss and they will miss often. you'd be surprised how much extra you can add to your winrate just by picking up 1 extra tiny pot per hour.
you should c-bet all dry boards. basically you want to c-bet with your monsters and your air (on dry flops) and get to showdown cheap with your marginal hands.

most live players play too passive and a few play too aggressive. we need to find the frequency somewhere in the middle.
 
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Ducky7

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Fair enough, try remembering some hands and some spots you get into the next time you play and post them in the Cash hand Analysis column. But if you are sticking by that then you probably are going through a rough patch
 
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Post hand histories when you get a chance, of big spots where you lost.

Betting good hands and being aggressive are good starts, but there are a ton of mistakes u could be making...any one of which could be a big part of a downswing.

If you only bet when you have good cards and hit a good flop, that's a huge one. Very easy to take advantage of.

If you're betting too much or too little when you do hit.both could be big problems.

If you're not paying enough attention to your opponents..(can you tell the nits from the regs from the loose players? Are u adjusting accordingly or are ujust playing ur cards the same way, regardless)

These are just common errs I see...there are a bunch more..and they will all hurt your bankroll. Posting specific hands with what u did on each street will give us a much better idea of where you're at.

Going allin preflop with aa...and he hits a lucky card..that's 100% variance, that u have to justdeal with. Most issues aren't just that, tho
 
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marcusthorton259

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so you play "fit or fold"?... you might be missing some value in the small pots. most are willing to c/f if they miss and they will miss often. you'd be surprised how much extra you can add to your winrate just by picking up 1 extra tiny pot per hour.
you should c-bet all dry boards. basically you want to c-bet with your monsters and your air (on dry flops) and get to showdown cheap with your marginal hands.

most live players play too passive and a few play too aggressive. we need to find the frequency somewhere in the middle.

Not sure if your saying to bluff for more pots or whether I should try to call more hands for just the big blind pre flop, which one are you talking about?
 
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Not sure if your saying to bluff for more pots or whether I should try to call more hands for just the big blind pre flop, which one are you talking about?

when you said you only play when you hit the flop and that you never bluff, i was wondering if you ever c-bet a missed flop?
you don't need to triple barrel bluff to beat these stakes but you should c-bet all dry flops unless you have a reason to check it back. against a station, i'd c-bet less often.

i don't know much about your game so it's difficult to give accurate advice... once you determine that this downswing is more than just the cards then you should do some more home work. ;)
 
Arjonius

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What's your advice?
Before taking the easy route of blaming variance for your losing streak, closely examine the possibility that you haven't been playing your A game.

Another possibility when you've been playing in a small opponent pool, is that some have learned to exploit certain aspects of your game. It doesn't take very many of them, so it's not always easy to see this if you're mainly looking at overall table dynamics and not watching the individual players closely enough.
 
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