variance

recently i have began to encounter a second string of ultimately shitty cards. the icing on the cake was my last hand today. i had just left a table because i wasnt catching anything so i sat down at a new table. 2 hands in i get pocket K's in the SB. guy in MP limps i raise and he calls. I bet all 3 streets on a 4538Q board, 4 suits, and he calls down. at showdown im thinking im good but then he turn over 53s and i lost it. I guess my question is how do you deal with variance? the last time i went on a losing streak i lost $35 in 3 days playing .25 .5 LHE 6max and i really dont want that to happen again. i came back from that lost pretty good and made almost $60 in about 1000 hands, but for the last week ive been staying pretty much even except for today, i lost $16 today in 99 hands. i was getting some good hands but they would lose to better hands or suck outs. i only won 8 hands today 1 of which was over $1 and i happened to get lucky on.

variance is a bitch... some days you run great, some days u run horrible.
thats why u have to have bankroll management to overcome the bad beats, variance, no hands at times for day on end it seems like.. also, look back at your hand historys and see where you might have leaks in your game and try to close those up.. rethink this hand for example. your bets on each street and did u bet enough to get him off his draw hand.

this is not variance. you are not dealing with variance, you are dealing with a game in which no starting card combo is fool proof. you can't and you wont win every hand, stop thinking that you should because that is ridiculous.
AA is 80% preflop vs all other 2 card combos, that means taht out of a thousand instances you will have to lose 200 times with it.
This isn't variance, Its supposed to work this way.

Thunder, I have been on my worst losing streak lately, and was doubting whether I could even play and all that. Well, after checking my games in a replayer, I saw that:
1. I was just having a bad run, making +ev moves and just having bad cards come
2. was also making a number of bad decisions that were triggered by me just being pissed off about the good plays not working.

These combined made for lost money, but I am now working on keeping my cool and accepting the suckouts and making sure my decision making is level, and taking a break when I get too mad.
Variance will come, dont get too worried, make sure you stick to good bankroll management, and play your best game, you will be ok soon enough. And always review your play, maybe you are playing different than you think. That happens to me more often than I like to admit.

Small consolation, but we ought to be happy that Villain was such an idiot as to call 3 streets of betting w a flopped 2 pair hand - he should've been raising, and you should've lost more money. Second small consolation - anybody bad enough to limp/call 53s in MP in LHE is someone you want at your table, we should be looking at that hand as an investment in keeping him around (unfortunate that the investment couldn't have come from a different player though ).

If you don't review your sessions, start doing so (fletch makes a great suggestion above). Make sure you're making +Ev plays, and try to tally those rather than your losses. Many people (myself included) start making -Ev plays when they feel that suckouts are sucking out their souls. But if you do find you're making correct plays, then take satisfaction in that.

Check Golden Archives, FP's long post on how to do session reviews, for some ideas.

Skaplun said:

this is not variance. you are not dealing with variance, you are dealing with a game in which no starting card combo is fool proof. you can't and you wont win every hand, stop thinking that you should because that is ridiculous.
AA is 80% preflop vs all other 2 card combos, that means taht out of a thousand instances you will have to lose 200 times with it.
This isn't variance, Its supposed to work this way.

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what you just described is exactly what variance is. i know im not going to win every hand but i was just mad because i lost to 53 of all hands. anyway thanks for the input guys

Yeah, that's exactly what variance is, and yeah, the laws of variance state that you're supposed to win and lose a certain amount of the time, which should tell you that the random aspect of poker( any two cards can win) is a fundamental cornerstone of the game, and must be respected. Therefore, you must adhere to strict bankroll management rules, so when the inevitable suckout or ridiculous preflop call pays off for your opponent, your roll won't be too badly affected. Bankroll management is one of the toughest concepts to stick to, because everyone wants to win as much money as possible, but everything any of us has ever learned about poker applies to the long run; the odds of success/failure over many tens of thousands of hands played or more. Your roll should reflect that by being able to withstand huge swings over long sessions. Two percent rule.

I dont mean to be a ***** and I apologize if I came off a bit harsh. the point is that when people say "oh, its variance" they feel to understand that this is what is supposed and should happen. they consider it bad luck or some other nuisance when actually it HAS to happen and its not like he outlucked you or something.
meh, I'm not good at explaining things.... i should just stick to my math.

thunder1276 said:

the last time i went on a losing streak i lost $35 in 3 days playing .25 .5 LHE 6max and i really dont want that to happen again.

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You lost $35 at $50NL 6max? That's nothing dude, expect way bigger swings than that.

Pascal LeFiscal said:

You lost $35 at $50NL 6max? That's nothing dude, expect way bigger swings than that.

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I play limit holdem LHE= Limit Hold Em. that is exactly why i dont play no limit

Skaplun said:

AA is 80% preflop vs all other 2 card combos,

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Um...no.

Not even close.

AA vs. a "random hand" is roughly 85%. Against a hand which it dominates (e.g. A6o), it is 92%+

You do realise that LHE has higher variance due mainly to the fact ppl just don't ever fold?

And if losing $35 is tilting you, then you are most definatley not rolled to play at the level your playing. The easiest way to deal with variance is to have a BR large enough to cope with the swongs.

docStats said:

Um...no.

Not even close.

AA vs. a "random hand" is roughly 85%. Against a hand which it dominates (e.g. A6o), it is 92%+

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That's not nice. It's not like you'll be willing to play the hand any differently because you're 86% against KQo and 92% against Ace crap. It doesn't matter what the exact percentages are anyway, because these figures come from pokerstove calculations, which are based on millions and millions of hands played. You're never saying to yourself, "I'm only an 86% favorite preflop to win, I sure wish I was a 91% fav." Lighten up a little.

flopmearoyal said:

That's not nice. It's not like you'll be willing to play the hand any differently because you're 86% against KQo and 92% against Ace crap. It doesn't matter what the exact percentages are anyway, because these figures come from pokerstove calculations, which are based on millions and millions of hands played. You're never saying to yourself, "I'm only an 86% favorite preflop to win, I sure wish I was a 91% fav." Lighten up a little.

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thank you flop, and for the record I apologize for my miscaluclation.

thunder1276 said:

I play limit holdem LHE= Limit Hold Em. that is exactly why i dont play no limit

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Jagsti said:

You do realise that LHE has higher variance due mainly to the fact ppl just don't ever fold?

And if losing $35 is tilting you, then you are most definatley not rolled to play at the level your playing. The easiest way to deal with variance is to have a BR large enough to cope with the swongs.

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This.

I deal with variance by expectation, I accept I may win overall x$ the same way I accept in the session I could lose x$, either way the swing is the swing, and my bankroll management allows me to deal with it.