Two Questions - Set Mining & Fold Equity

With small pocket pairs, normally I've been open raising in early and middle positions. Would I be better off just calling initially, with the option of calling subsequent raises? Specifically, reasons are to mask my hand and maybe more calls to put those extra few bbs into the pot.

When it comes to Micro stakes cash games, quite often you run into players with a very high VPIP. My read is that with these players you basically have very little fold equity with these. It's a situation where I never feel I'm getting the proper value out of them when I do win. Any thoughts, comments or suggested reads? I've also learned to never try to bluff them.

It sounds like you have 2 dissimilar ends in mind.

1: you want to get some extra bbs in the pot, so you might fold people out if you bet.

2: you don't want to bet because you don't have any fold equity.

Both of these things can't be true. If people won't fold you get more bb's in by betting than by calling. If people fold too much, then you have fold equity so betting should net you some $$ when people fold.

In either situation, betting is probably the best course of action.

It should work like this. If you get several callers then you should only lead on the flop when you hit your set or something like that. You have already gotten some good money and you may even get a call from a fish.

If you only get 1 caller then you can cbet most flops because the other guy should miss 70% of the time and you likely have the best hand.

Don't cbet when you missed into several people - someone probably hit.

If you stick to that, you should be fine.

Ubercroz said:

It sounds like you have 2 dissimilar ends in mind.

1: you want to get some extra bbs in the pot, so you might fold people out if you bet.

2: you don't want to bet because you don't have any fold equity.

Both of these things can't be true. If people won't fold you get more bb's in by betting than by calling. If people fold too much, then you have fold equity so betting should net you some $$ when people fold.

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Actually, I was asking under 2 completely different situations. Maybe these questions shouldn't have been in the same post.

In either situation, betting is probably the best course of action.

It should work like this. If you get several callers then you should only lead on the flop when you hit your set or something like that. You have already gotten some good money and you may even get a call from a fish.

If you only get 1 caller then you can cbet most flops because the other guy should miss 70% of the time and you likely have the best hand.

Don't cbet when you missed into several people - someone probably hit.

If you stick to that, you should be fine.

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Normally my limit is c-betting with 2 callers, sometimes only 1 depending on players and the board.

Depends on your opponents. If you're playing against a bunch of solid regs, I'd rather fold PP's in early/MP than limp. You'll never get value from them unless it's some sort of cooler situation because your range will be severely capped.

On the other hand, if you're playing with a table full of casual rec fish, limping is perfectly fine and perhaps even preferred.

SeaRun said:

Actually, I was asking under 2 completely different situations. Maybe these questions shouldn't have been in the same post.

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That makes sense, sorry I misunderstood.

I think betting in both situations is still fine. You just treat your post flop differently. If you are playing at a very loose (like 1/2 live full ring kind of loose) game then I guess you could limp... but I think you actually have more fold equity than you think you do.

Either way, its more a post flop, rather than pre-flop adjustment.

Mr Sandbag said:

Depends on your opponents. If you're playing against a bunch of solid regs, I'd rather fold PP's in early/MP than limp. You'll never get value from them unless it's some sort of cooler situation because your range will be severely capped.

On the other hand, if you're playing with a table full of casual rec fish, limping is perfectly fine and perhaps even preferred.

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Ubercroz said:

That makes sense, sorry I misunderstood.

I think betting in both situations is still fine. You just treat your post flop differently. If you are playing at a very loose (like 1/2 live full ring kind of loose) game then I guess you could limp... but I think you actually have more fold equity than you think you do.

Either way, its more a post flop, rather than pre-flop adjustment.

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Thanks guys, appreciate it.

Uber, no issues with the confusion, I caused that by putting to (intended) unrelated questions in the same post.

Still not sure about the fold equity part though. Example:

I have QQ, raise and have 1 caller going to the flop. If I am against a nitty or tight player, I am comfortable C-Betting with an A or K on the flop. I know if he hit, I'll know it. However, if the villain has a VP of 30 or many times higher, MUCH higher, I'm lost 'cause I know so many times he's calling with air, a lower pair or a draw. And we all know every card he sees I have a better chance of losing.

SeaRun said:

I have QQ, raise and have 1 caller going to the flop. If I am against a nitty or tight player, I am comfortable C-Betting with an A or K on the flop. I know if he hit, I'll know it. However, if the villain has a VP of 30 or many times higher, MUCH higher, I'm lost 'cause I know so many times he's calling with air, a lower pair or a draw. And we all know every card he sees I have a better chance of losing.

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This is a good example of Way Ahead/Way Behind.

Basically its this, on the flop you are either beating him and he has few outs against you, or he is beating you and you have few outs against him.

In the above example, the board is A high and you have QQ. If he has an A you are way behind. If he doesn't, you are likely way ahead.

In these kind of situations you want to get to showdown relatively cheaply. So you are going to check most of the time, and call 1 or 2 bets.

You don't want to just fold when you may be ahead, but if you bet and get raised you kind of have to fold. But you can call a single bet on the flop. Same thing on the turn.

If someone is really loose postflop, and they are likely to call MUCH wider than just TP, then you can probably bet for some thin value. I think checking is still fine though.

WA/WB usually comes up most of the time when the board is pretty dry, so like A59 rainbow would be a decent example. Thats not super dry, but dry enough that you can apply the concept. They should have few outs against you if you're ahead, and if they are ahead you have only 2 outs (at best).

SeaRun said:

Still not sure about the fold equity part though. Example:

I have QQ, raise and have 1 caller going to the flop. If I am against a nitty or tight player, I am comfortable C-Betting with an A or K on the flop. I know if he hit, I'll know it. However, if the villain has a VP of 30 or many times higher, MUCH higher, I'm lost 'cause I know so many times he's calling with air, a lower pair or a draw. And we all know every card he sees I have a better chance of losing.

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Well if it is a dry flop, it's unlikely villain will be calling with air unless he's an experienced reg. But it sounds like you are referring to fish. If it is a draw heavy board, their ranges will contain a lot of draws that will give you heaps of value. You kind of just have to weigh your opponent's skill level/style, your hand strength, your image, position, and board texture to come up with the best course of action.

This just happened, example of what I'm referring to. Villain here is 18/11 with ~ 400 hands.

If he calls my flop bet, I go into a shell knowing 95% of the time I'm beaten. If it's a fish, I have no idea.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG ($9.55)
MP1 ($5.77)
MP2 ($5.23)
CO ($5.96)
Button ($5.06)
SB ($3.65)
Hero (BB) ($10.94)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10 , 10
3 folds, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, SB calls $0.03, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, SB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.35) 9 , 2 , A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.17, 1 fold

Total pot: $0.35 | Rake: $0.01

Results below:

SeaRun said:

If he calls my flop bet, I go into a shell knowing 95% of the time I'm beaten. If it's a fish, I have no idea.

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That's not true though. Fish are bad players, so most of them won't be calling with King high or something. If you bet and get called, your opponent has most likely connected in some way. And if the flop is really dry like that, the ways a hand can connect are very limited.

Here's an example of a high VPIP player I'm talking about. This guy has been playing some real crap cards and just making out.

59 hands, 52/30 and up 271 bbs



Check out this shyte, this guy won this hand. I've posted about this kind of player so many times here, and I'm absolutely lost whe it comes to someone like this.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

SB ($5.60)
BB ($9.31)
UTG ($4)
UTG+1 ($5.71)
MP1 ($7.10)
Hero (MP2) ($8.65)
MP3 ($7.76)
CO ($4.70)
Button ($5.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4 , J
5 folds, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.20, 1 fold, CO calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.45) 10 , 2 , 7 (2 players)
SB bets $0.21, CO calls $0.21

Turn: ($0.87) J (2 players)
SB bets $0.41, CO calls $0.41

River: ($1.69) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $1.62, CO raises to $3.88 (All-In), SB calls $2.26

Total pot: $9.45 | Rake: $0.39

Results below:

SeaRun said:

Here's an example of a high VPIP player I'm talking about. This guy has been playing some real crap cards and just making out.

59 hands, 52/30 and up 271 bbs

Check out this shyte, this guy won this hand. I've posted about this kind of player so many times here, and I'm absolutely lost whe it comes to someone like this.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

SB ($5.60)
BB ($9.31)
UTG ($4)
UTG+1 ($5.71)
MP1 ($7.10)
Hero (MP2) ($8.65)
MP3 ($7.76)
CO ($4.70)
Button ($5.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4

, J

5 folds, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.20, 1 fold, CO calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.45) 10

, 2

, 7

(2 players)
SB bets $0.21, CO calls $0.21

Turn: ($0.87) J

(2 players)
SB bets $0.41, CO calls $0.41

River: ($1.69) 6

(2 players)
SB bets $1.62, CO raises to $3.88 (All-In), SB calls $2.26

Total pot: $9.45 | Rake: $0.39

Results below:

Spoiler

SB had A

, A

(one pair, Aces).
CO had 6

, 2

(two pair, sixes and twos).
Outcome: CO won $9.06

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You can't profit off someone that calls to the river with a pair of deuces? Don't even bother cbetting these guys very often, just plays hands and value bet when you hit.

Also, SB played his hand horribly bet flop and turn bigger, especially against a guy that calls like this. I would be more in favor of betting 2/3rds+ pot on flop and turn and betting small/checking river if he calls to this point.

There isn't really anything "to do" there. Bet bigger, and roll your eyes and fold when he raises. It sucks. But these players show up all the time at the micros. They make bad calls all day long and then people pay off their reverse implied odds by making the call when they finally connect and shove.

You have to be able to make folds here. Yeah, he could be bluffing - but he won't be. He WILL call down with a pair of 2's though.

If you can make the smart folds, then he will be getting crushed, because he will not get paid off on his long shot hands. He will still get crushed even when does get paid off, but it will take longer.

Have faith, play tight, fold smart, bet for value.

That TT hand is a pretty standard xb on the flop vs fish and regs imo.

Also where did you get the 95% number?

IPlay said:

You can't profit off someone that calls to the river with a pair of deuces? Don't even bother cbetting these guys very often, just plays hands and value bet when you hit.>>>>SNIP

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You see IPlay, this is where I have issues. I have to believe that what everyone says is true; "These guys lose in the long run", and that's fine. Lets's look at buddy's hand with the As, he didn't hit the flop, so you're saying he should not C-Bet? And then when the fishy-smelling Donkey bets his monster pocket deuces we should fold? Cripes, it's hard enough to get good cards as it is without waiting for the flop to improve your hand so you can bet against some mental midget who calls pre-flop raises with 6-2 SOOOOOOOOOOTED (isn't that Russian Nutz?) I felt really bad for that guy losing on his As 'cause it's happened to me so many times with monster hands, but in a perverse way it made me feel good that I'm not alone.

Ubercroz said:

There isn't really anything "to do" there. Bet bigger, and roll your eyes and fold when he raises. It sucks. But these players show up all the time at the micros. They make bad calls all day long and then people pay off their reverse implied odds by making the call when they finally connect and shove.

You have to be able to make folds here. Yeah, he could be bluffing - but he won't be. He WILL call down with a pair of 2's though.

If you can make the smart folds, then he will be getting crushed, because he will not get paid off on his long shot hands. He will still get crushed even when does get paid off, but it will take longer.

Have faith, play tight, fold smart, bet for value.

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I have caught people bluffing with BS cards. Not as often as I've gotten burned, but it has happened.

Yes, he will call down with a pair of 2s, but in the case above, he hit another pair on the River. How do you bet for value there?

redwards92 said:

That TT hand is a pretty standard xb on the flop vs fish and regs imo.

Also where did you get the 95% number?

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Sorry, but what's xb?

The 95% is just a guesstimate from my own experience with players .............. let's say VPIP 15% and below with a high PFR. For the most part, if they call me, they have something worth calling with. Maybe I'm wrong, I dunno. I'm not saying it's a smart or profitable way to play, just saying it's what I see very often.

sorry, xb = checkback. I'm lazy lol.

Basically we don't fold out better(+ have little equity vs a calling range ) and everything that folds we probably are way ahead of anyway as someone mentioned earlier in this thread the way ahead/ way behind concept.

QQ/JJ is unlikely when he limp/calls from the sb.

Sometimes we can call a street or two depending on opponent if they bet vs our "weakness" or whatever( which will often be villain dependant) but checking is by far our best option on that flop.

SeaRun said:

I have caught people bluffing with BS cards. Not as often as I've gotten burned, but it has happened.

Yes, he will call down with a pair of 2s, but in the case above, he hit another pair on the River. How do you bet for value there?

Sorry, but what's xb?

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They will sometimes bluff with BS cards, but unless you have a solid read on it, you will lose more than you win calling there.

You bet for value on the river then you fold when he shoves. THAT is what
I mean by a smart fold. Either something changed or he is spewing. Its pretty polarizing in what he could have. However, with weak players it is weighed more heavily towards a value shove when the idiot hits.

Value bet, and fold to a raise.

xb means Check (x) Back (b). Like you might say x/r for check raise.

I don't think you need to xb that that river. I think you b/f.

Ubercroz said:

They will sometimes bluff with BS cards, but unless you have a solid read on it, you will lose more than you win calling there.

You bet for value on the river then you fold when he shoves. THAT is what
I mean by a smart fold. Either something changed or he is spewing. Its pretty polarizing in what he could have. However, with weak players it is weighed more heavily towards a value shove when the idiot hits.

Value bet, and fold to a raise.

xb means Check (x) Back (b). Like you might say x/r for check raise.

I don't think you need to xb that that river. I think you b/f.

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Listen to this guy. At the micros, bet/fold is your best friend with a strong one pair type on the river. It completely counters a fish tendency to call down anything and only ever reraise something that beats overpair because lol "AA?" Seriously look at their fishy chats. They love to either pin you on AA/KK or AK and play against you as such (ie. trying to draw to 2 pair or better because they have such good implied odds)

Don't give them that chance to get paid for their reverse odds.
Don't call their bluffs either with a good read, cause it's not going to happen often enough to be profitable. If they ever figure you think like that you might see them betting too often on the river (over adjust) , at that point maybe.


Hhmmmm something anecdotal... If you're IP and they suddenly lead bet 50-90 pct pot into you, it's more likely a bluff than if you were check raised by them. Most Fish often get scared of bluffing big so they are prolly less likely to attempt bluff check raising. This don't apply to Afro fish though. Disclaimer: they still won't be bluffing enough majority of the time, but it's a good start to learning to bluff catch these guys.

Oh, fishes are scared but hopeless optimists. They call down because you can have AK and are triple barreling a missed board so lol call.

SeaRun said:

You see IPlay, this is where I have issues. I have to believe that what everyone says is true; "These guys lose in the long run", and that's fine. Lets's look at buddy's hand with the As, he didn't hit the flop, so you're saying he should not C-Bet?

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Didn't hit the flop? AA is a made hand and does not need to hit the flop.

SeaRun said:

And then when the fishy-smelling Donkey bets his monster pocket deuces we should fold?

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I don't get where you got this but this is a great example of why you can value bet very thin against players like this, but know WHY you are betting. If you have 1010 on a k 9 3 rainbow flop and you cbet, you are cbetting for value against this guy and not a bluff because he will call so weak. When you cbet this flop against someone that folds anything but top pair, you are pretty much bluffing and not value betting since you are never getting called by worse.
\

IPlay said:

Didn't hit the flop? AA is a made hand and does not need to hit the flop.



I don't get where you got this but this is a great example of why you can value bet very thin against players like this, but know WHY you are betting. If you have 1010 on a k 9 3 rainbow flop and you cbet, you are cbetting for value against this guy and not a bluff because he will call so weak. When you cbet this flop against someone that folds anything but top pair, you are pretty much bluffing and not value betting since you are never getting called by worse.
\

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It's all about range. Yes you will get owned here sometimes but that shouldn't stop you from taking 9 and 3 to value town. Fish with a 9 is very liable to call 2 streets. So pot control the turn or river. Triple barreling for value is possible too thin in extreme cases and you are free not to take it if it makes you squirm.

Showing down your TT here with a fairly large pot may even induce some bad adjustments as well. Watch them overvalue TPWK later.

Disclaimer: the last post advice only applies to calling whales. Please don't apply this to SLPs with Vpip in the 30s or less.

Most of the time you have to give respect to fishes' raises. That guy played AA horribly, if he gets his bet sizing correct and villain doesn't hit a lucky 2 pair, he gets 3 streets of huge value from J4 offsuit... who is happier in the long run?

Generally don't cbet if you missed, fire out once if you know the fish folds if they completely whiffed the flop, as they'll miss 70% of the time. When you do hit, TPGK is going to be beating them on the flop, take them to value town and fold to any raises. Don't slow up if they snap call you down, or overcards come either, please fold to their raises, they won't be bluffing trust me.

All fish are not the same. This also applies to high vpips. So, there isn't a single optimal way to play them all.

Lots of great posts here folks, and thank you. To respond to just a few of them:

IPlay said:

Didn't hit the flop? AA is a made hand and does not need to hit the flop.

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IPlay, maybe I have a talent of attracting extremely lucky players, but I see high PPs killed sooooooooooooooo often the same way buddy's As did, with 2 pair or someone having a garbage brother of a board pair for a set, etc. Many times you'll win with those pairs, but so often you wont against players like this. Remember one of the rules (and I know I don't need to tell you this, but just to make my point); the more cards your opponent sees, the better chance he has to beat you.

I don't get where you got this but this is a great example of why you can value bet very thin against players like this, but know WHY you are betting. If you have 1010 on a k 9 3 rainbow flop and you cbet, you are cbetting for value against this guy and not a bluff because he will call so weak. When you cbet this flop against someone that folds anything but top pair, you are pretty much bluffing and not value betting since you are never getting called by worse.
\

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On the 1010 example (the hand I played) you're 100% right. I'll normally C-Bet whether I hit the flop or not. If the player calls, I'll fall back, regroup and go to plan B. Plan B can change depending on whether the player is tight / nitty or if he's a high VPIP. However, where I got the bolded statement you're referring to above is with the AA hand I posted. Yes, maybe his bets were out of whack and he played it incorrectly, but still, we've all seen players who will chase bottom pair to the end, and those are the kind that drive us nuts.

akaRobbo said:

Most of the time you have to give respect to fishes' raises. That guy played AA horribly, if he gets his bet sizing correct and villain doesn't hit a lucky 2 pair, he gets 3 streets of huge value from J4 offsuit... who is happier in the long run?

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Your bolded statement is what throws the wrench into the gears. Look at it this way with the AA hand, he (the guy with As) has 2 cards to improve his hand, so after the flop his odds of improving are pretty piss poor. However, the idiot who is calling with a flopped bottom pair has 5 cards to improve his hand and he probably thinks this is great because he makes it once in a while and he thinks he's a friggin' pro. His odds are a little better, but still pretty pathetic. Yes, in the long run he's losing and you're winning, but when you combine these odds with the number of times you fold on the Turn or River because of a big bluff, it's getting pretty hard to take.

Generally don't cbet if you missed, fire out once if you know the fish folds if they completely whiffed the flop, as they'll miss 70% of the time. When you do hit, TPGK is going to be beating them on the flop, take them to value town and fold to any raises. Don't slow up if they snap call you down, or overcards come either, please fold to their raises, they won't be bluffing trust me.

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I'm at the point now where if the villain has a high VPIP or if I know he plays junk a lot, I cut back on C-Bets big time, both in frequency and size

As for they won't be bluffing, I have numerous instances that make me tend to disagree, one that just happened this afternoon is posted below.

Now, he min-raised pre which tells me he might have a low pocket pair, Ax, maybe suited connectors or 2 broadway cards. (Note I have 0 info on this player.) I took a stab at a C-Bet with 1 overcard and a possible FD on the board, he called. OK, maybe he has Qx, maybe suited diamonds, maybe a 7 or a 2. Turn gives me my set, but it's a diamond and shoves. He COULD have a flush, he might have made 2 pair. I called figuring my odds are OK (and maybe I'm right out to lunch there).

I'm willingly open to criticism here, but my thoughts were he has (I think) something like an 8% chance of having a flush there, and my set is made. There are 14 cards that would give me a full house or better on the River if he did make his flush, so I think my odds are worth the risk of calling him. Thoughts, comments or suggestions?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 137.2 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
UTG+1: 80 BB
MP: 119.8 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
CO: 106.6 BB (VPIP: 16.49, PFR: 11.70, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 577)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.71, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 25)
BB: 194.6 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 12.99, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 82)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG+1 posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has 8:club: 8:spade:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, MP calls 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (8.4 BB, 4 players) Q:diamond: 7:diamond: 2:club:
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP checks, Hero bets 8 BB, fold, UTG+1 calls 8 BB, fold

Turn: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
UTG+1 bets 70 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 70 BB

River: (164.4 BB, 2 players) 3:club:

UTG+1 shows 9:club: 7:club: (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 33%, Flop 24%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 8:club: 8:spade: (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 67%, Flop 76%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 157.6 BB

Arjonius said:

All fish are not the same. This also applies to high vpips. So, there isn't a single optimal way to play them all.

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Agreed there's no single RIGHT way to play all players. I remember reading somewhere many times one of the marks of a great poker player is the ability to adjust to different styles of play, and I really believe that.



I guess this thread has gotten a little off track, but it's a great discussion all the same.

Besides, it's my thread and I'll do what I want!!!!

Time for another Espresso!:icon_shak