Originally Posted by The_Pup
Here's a situation I occasionally find myself in that I never feel quite sure about and would value any comments. Dealt AA mid position we raise and get one caller in late position. The flop comes KQQ so we c-bet and get called; the flop is another Q, we bet and get raised all-in. Call or fold? In general I am calling here as the villain is pushing with most pairs or a king. Obviously there are all the usual caveats about tourney or cash, what we know of villain and so on, but this seems a situation where we are either a mile ahead or complete toast and there is no way of telling which.
Thats not true.
We have some extra infomation.
There are now 3 Q's accounted for and only 1 K therefore your opponent is far more likely to have a K than a Q.
Our opponent has shoved the turn. This indicates that he likely dosent have a Q because if he did, he would hold the absolute nuts and therfore be less likely to try and push you off your hand. (even if he holds a K and you shove he is unlikely to fold, but if he holds the Q he isnt so much slowplaying you by calling as he is extracting value, unless the stacks are really really shallow or deep and shoving just makes more sense)
Our opponent called the flop, but shoved the turn. A hand like KJ had 2 pair on the flop so called but made a FH on the turn. What he fears is calling and an ace rolling off on the river.
The reason he has to raise the turn is a combination of Zebo's therum and the fact that players seldom bluff large pots. A PP less than K will call any river bet and he beats those, but A rag cannot call the river shove.
A rag will most likely fold to this shove but there is some chance it will call.
So he has nothing to gain by calling (and letting you see a free card), you will only call the river with A rag if you hit. However you may call his turn raise and therfore get your money in with little equity, plus Zebos therum says that noone folds a FH, ever, so his shove dosent fold out any made hands. So he isn't at all worried about what weaker hands will call, all weaker FH's will call, but he dosent want your A Rag holdings to get a free card because you really couldnt fire a third bluff on the river having been called down on that board.
BTW this is not a Way ahead/ Way behind situation.