Thoughts on this hand?

R

rw11687

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Playing in a .25/.50 6-handed cash game on Carbon. To this point I had been playing a lot of hands, and taking down quite a few pots uncontested. The table was quite tight so I was stealing blinds whenever I had the chance. Then this hand came up.

Dealt KK one off the button, the hand is folded to me. Make a standard pot raise to .85. The button re-raises to $2.90 and the blinds fold. I re-raise to $7 and he flat calls.

Flop comes TQ5 rainbow. 1st to act, I bet half the pot - $7.17. The guy moves all in, which is only an additional $10 to me. I called and the guy shows AA.

The turn however, brings me a K and I win the nice pot.

Now, my brief analysis -

Pre-flop - Pretty standard play for me. I had been running over the guys blinds, so I felt like he could be re-raising with a decent range of hands, trying to slow me down and pick up a few chips. He had position post-flop, so the made the hand range even more open.

Although if I am him in that situation, I move all-in over top. One of two things happen, I have a big hand and call, which most hands that call here will be dominated by AA. Or I fold, still giving him a nice sized pot.

In both situations its better for him. If I was trying to make a move with suited connectors or a small pair, I am not going to call the all in. But by letting me see a flop, I could hit a set or catch some sort of draw that I am willing to go the distance with, considering how much is already in the pot. Just my thoughts on his play.

Post-flop - Actually a very scary flop for me, but I was committed at this point. I wanted to be the aggressor and put him to a decision, not the other way around. Once he moved all in, I had way too much in the pot to fold. However, I will say I thought I was beat.

When he moved all in, I had 3 hands in mind - AA, QQ, AQ. Two hands dominate me, only 1 I can beat at this point. A few years ago when I was in my prime, I probably would have decided to fold and save the $10. Then again, my skills were much sharper then and I may have had an overwhelming sense I was beat. Here, I felt like I was, but decided to call. Call it doubting my read, hoping for the best case (AQ), or simply having a lack of discipline. Whatever the case, I clearly made the wrong decision.

One small defense to the call (which looking back on it seems like it was more and more of a poor play), was the fact that I had been very aggressive. He may have been taking a stand with a hand like AQ, JJ, or even KQ. Not likely, but I do remember thinking it was a possibility, given how I had been playing.

Obviously I got very lucky to win this hand. Once nice benefit outside of the $ is that I have a little more confidence in my feel right now. But if I don't actually pay attention to it, I guess it doesn't do any good :)

Looking forward to your thoughts!
 
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sam1chips

sam1chips

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If they were playing real tight as you said, and they make a 3 bet and then call a 4 bet pre-flop, they must have a monster, either aces or kings in my opinion. (and probably not kings since you're holding 2 of them)
The c-bet isn't a bad idea, and at that point you are committed. There's no reason you should fold to the $3 reraise all in with $20 already in the pot. Turns out you were behind and you got lucky, I would've had a hard time folding that hand though, even if you were thinking they had aces. Congrats, hopefully I can get some of that luck that you have :)
 
Arjonius

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The range you assumed of AA QQ AQ includes 6 possible combinations of AA, 3 of QQ and 12 of AQ. Against the first two, you basically have two outs twice (so you'll win about 8%), while when he's trailing, he has five twice (20%, so you'll win about 80%).

.08 x 9/21 = .034
.8 x 12/21 = .457

So overall, you win about 49% of the time which means that mathematically, folding would have been pretty poor. With $31 in the pot that you can win by putting in another $10, the pot odds math points to calling any time you're no worse than a 3:1 dog.
 
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rw11687

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Thanks for the response guys. I knew I was basically committed to the pot after c-betting, but I hadn't really looked at the math. Very interesting numbers Arjonius.
 
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stuedoopoker

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The day you fold KK on TQ5 irrespective of whats gone before is the day you should stop playing poker.
 
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LarryT503

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I have to agree with Stue, I just don't see myself folding KK pre-flop, and certainly in this case post-flop either. You were beat, but had know way of guessing it. Just bad luck for your opponent who played his hand well.
 
Arjonius

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Thanks for the response guys. I knew I was basically committed to the pot after c-betting, but I hadn't really looked at the math. Very interesting numbers Arjonius.
I wouldn't expect you to do the math at the table to arrive at the 49% figure. What's more important anyway is being able to assess (or guess) whether you have the pot odds to call.
 
John A

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Why 4-bet and allow him to play perfect poker against you?
 
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