re: Poker & Thought experiment
Originally Posted by dj11
'splain that please?
I understand that could be confusing - all I mean is he is playing anonymously, he has no reputation.
I agree he would not be interested, but being a thought experiment we can get around that by assuming it would matter to him - say he gets paid $1k for every dollar he makes or whatever.
My point in posing this idea is asking whether his (presumed) skill advantage is enough to win at this level online. I ask this because I find whether I win or lose often comes down to one crucial hand (it may not be the hand that knocks me or someone else out, but alters the course of the game). And that crucial hand almost invariably comes down to a coin toss.
Here's an example from a MTT last night. About 30 minutes into the game I had been playing fairly tight but had picked up a few small pots. In the SB I get dealt KK and the button (who had played a similar game) raises 3BB, I reraise to 8BB and button calls. The flop is AK8, I check, the button bets 1/2 pot, my trap having worked I raise all in and the button calls. The button has AA.
I have lied, this didn't happen - in fact I was the button holding AA and am 90% favourite. The turn and river both come hearts to complete the SB's flush and I am out.
A while later at a SnG we are down to five players and I have a biggish stack (perhaps 2nd) and without going crazy I am putting pressure on the smaller stacks. Dealt AQo I raise 3BB and the SB calls half their stack - on the flop (Q8T) the SB puts the rest in, I call and am beaten by trip eights. I'm not out, but my stack has taken quite a knock, a few hands later I make a good fold to a raise from big stack and am down to 3BB.
In case you think this is just sour grapes, I have equally been in the other position and gone on to get paid. And it is always these types of hands that make or break a tournament.
So, what would Ivey do that's different without live reads or reputation? We all see extraordinary things at the table (in the same SnG a short stack went all in with K7 on a K74 flop, got called by A8 and the turn and river came A8). These 'extraordinary' hands seem to be the defining ones - and whether you are on the good or bad end of them is just a coin flip.