This is a discussion on Is there any EV or mathematical advantage of running it twice? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; Like lets say I'm a 60/40 favorite with two cards to come. I'm one of the guys who never run it twice. Is there any 


Similar Threads for: Is there any EV or mathematical advantage of running it twice?  
Thread  Replies  Last Post  Forum  Thread Starter 
Medium stacks avoid big stacks it's EV?  11  12th March 2015 1:50 AM  Tournament Poker  sunirico 
EV ( My C allin Adjusted)  3  19th February 2015 7:57 PM  Poker Software & Tools  loquillowin 
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re: Poker & Is there any EV or mathematical advantage of running it twice?
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#12




re: Poker & Is there any EV or mathematical advantage of running it twice?
Usually if all the money goes in and the underdog has tonnes of equity then the underdog is on a draw.
So the underdog then becomes a favourite to win it once. (more cards = more equity for a draw .. think about what happens to a FD equity between the flop and the turn). 
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It turns the draw from an underdog overall closer to a coinflip. For one thing the second card to be dealt (assuming the first didnt hit the draw) is now dealt from a deck that contains one less nonflush card than before. Its going to alter the probabilities slightly and if you are behind its altering them slightly in your favour. So the guy on the draw is fractionally less likely to loose twice with a FD when running it twice than he would be to loose 2 allins with 2 FDs that were run once. Assuming the FD misses the first time the ratio of flush to non flush cards has increased slightly. 
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I was under the impression that the two runs were completely independent trials, each with the exact same probabilities. For example, if we're 60/40 favored to win a $1000 pot, our expected payout is 60% x $1000 = $600 (assuming no splits are possible here) without running it twice. Now if we run it twice, the probability of winning both trials is 60% x 60% = 36%, and the probability of losing both trials is 40% x 40% = 16%. This leaves 48% that we each win one trial and split the pot. Therefore, our expected payout is 36% x $1000 + 48% x $500 = $600 again. The only difference is that our variance is reduced, since almost half the time we don't lose any money, instead of the all or nothing nature of the standard deal. I'm too lazy to compute the variance, which is simply the square root of the sum of the squared deviations of the possible outcomes from the expected outcome. Or am I missing something, either subtle or obvious? 
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re: Poker & Is there any EV or mathematical advantage of running it twice?
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The effect probably isnt as great as I first thought (because the random example I though of was KK vs a7s on a 2tone board on the flop.. roughly 52:48 in favour of KK.. with 2 cards to come I estimated that the A7 could actually become a favourite on the second run.. assuming it missed the first because in this case there 12 outs and 2 nonouts have been removed prior to the second run.) I haven't seen it run twice on line (perhaps they do it differently) , but live... the leave the first run cards on the table whilst running the second.. so yes the second run would not include the cards from the first run. 
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EDIT: Actually, it's 13.5 times more of a suckout, but still, you get the idea 
Similar Threads for: Is there any EV or mathematical advantage of running it twice? > Texas Hold'em Poker  
Thread  Replies  Last Post  Forum  Thread Starter 
Medium stacks avoid big stacks it's EV?  11  12th March 2015 1:50 AM  Tournament Poker  sunirico 
EV ( My C allin Adjusted)  3  19th February 2015 7:57 PM  Poker Software & Tools  loquillowin 