****kkkk just wrote out a long post and got logged out, ffs
Originally Posted by jbbb
The only person you have to worry about is UTG but only like 5% of the time will he have it, so in long term +EV.
I agree with the rest of your post but have to correct you here since this is very misleading and inaccurate.
Ignoring the %5, let's assume villain stacks a typical QQ+/AK range. That's the top %2.6 of hands.
Assuming he opens something like %10 utg, that means 2.6/10 = %26 of the time he will be stacking pf.
Even then, this figure is useless without factoring in our equity and the continuing ranges of everyone in between.
That said this should be a squeeze %100 of the time. Given utg is probably folding somewhere around the %75 mark (%100 - his ~%25 stacking range), then we could actually do this with 68s and show a profit. That said, the fish are still calling a ton in between, so I'm depolarizing my range here, and AK does great.
Shoving is probably profitable given all the dead money and the likelihood of getting called by a fish with like AQ or whatever, but you're losing value by not squeezing smaller and getting a whole lot more calls from the fish. Yes, you want calls.