Terrible 6 max swings

A couple of general questions.

I play 5NL 6max and although I am a relative cash game beginner I have been playing poker for some time (SNG and MTT) and understand all the basic concepts of cash game play.

The swings I experience are dreadful!! For example since starting the trial of PT3 I have had a 10 BI downswing, which I recovered from only to immediately go into another 12 BI downswing. I recovered from this as well and went just about into profit again. Now I have had a 20 BI downswing, which I am at the bottom of so I don't know how far it will continue .

Do other people experience these kind of swings? It seems like once it starts I can't stop it no matter how well I try and play and how much I try to ignore the tilt. I think part of the problem is tilt but it also seems like once the downswing starts I also get bad beats again and again.

The 20 BI downswing makes me think I need a much bigger BR than 20 BI for 6-max. Luckily mine was 44 at the start of it so I still have 24. What do the 6-max regs think a safe BR is?

Also does anyone have any tips on what I should do to avoid these downswings? Things I have considered are dropping down to 2NL when I lose a more than 3BI on any day. Or switching to full ring and just playing 2 table (I normally play 4) for a bit to have a little break from the 6 max.

Thanks

EV question

And a question about EV in PT3...does this graph just mean I was ridiculously unlucky today??

micromachine said:

And a question about EV in PT3...does this graph just mean I was ridiculously unlucky today??

Click to expand...

it probably means that you lost a couple coinflips that you were slightly ahead in; as far as i can see, there were 3 or 4 hands where the 2 lines diverge majorly, so you were somewhat unlucky, but nothing too much out of the ordinary.

EV graphs, though - they are only there to tilt you. you either run hot and are a luckbox, or everyone else just hits their cards all the time. at your stakes, i would suggest not looking at the EV line too much, and focusing on your game instead. good luck!

Thanks

Over my entire PT3 history (around 25K hands now) the EV line is quite a bit higher than the winnings line. It started off below it but for 20K hands now it has been above the winnings line. Does that mean I have been quite unlucky in general? Or can it indicate symptoms of bad play too?

I did notice you said you were a tourney player, and switched to cash games. they are very different. In a tourney, you have to take shots and go with moderate holding all the way. no so in cash games. unless the villain is a notoriously loose maniac, I'm not too keen on pushing TPTK all the way, or even an over pair. picking your spots, bluffing less, more value bets when you are ahead, these are key in micro-stakes cash games.
GL and dona go on tilt!

Arcelas said:

I did notice you said you were a tourney player, and switched to cash games. they are very different. In a tourney, you have to take shots and go with moderate holding all the way. no so in cash games. unless the villain is a notoriously loose maniac, I'm not too keen on pushing TPTK all the way, or even an over pair. picking your spots, bluffing less, more value bets when you are ahead, these are key in micro-stakes cash games.
GL and dona go on tilt!

Click to expand...

Thanks I do try not to tilt but its difficult not to tilt a little bit when on a massive downswing! I have read a lot on cash game strategy so know all the differences between cash and tourney now. PT3 trial has been really helpful in helping me identify losing hands and losing situations.

side question micromachine: Is PT3 free? and secondly perhaps you should go lower the number of tables at once to three tables instead of 5, it might help your focus out more.
Hope that helped
TTYL

bigphatmike said:

side question micromachine: Is PT3 free? and secondly perhaps you should go lower the number of tables at once to three tables instead of 5, it might help your focus out more.
Hope that helped
TTYL

Click to expand...

I'm using the trial version for now, so it's free for another 45 days
Think I'll buy the micro version when my trial is up.
Yeah, I think you are right about dropping the number of tables, I usually play 4 but I know I can't keep track of everything I would like to, so maybe 3 would be better until I improve

micromachine said:

I'm using the trial version for now, so it's free for another 45 days
Think I'll buy the micro version when my trial is up.
Yeah, I think you are right about dropping the number of tables, I usually play 4 but I know I can't keep track of everything I would like to, so maybe 3 would be better until I improve

Click to expand...

Yea im shure it will, I use Merge personally ( USA), but i know quite a few that micro table and they say that all the time if they are on titl they will cut tables in half. or just bad downwing

Meh swings happen. Dont look at the EV line because its pretty bullshit really and doesnt take into account everything, just all in hands before the river. Not genuine coolers and stuff like that. Just keep focusing on playing better and the swings wont seem as bad.

A 20 BIs downswing at 5nl 6 max is pretty ridic considering lots of players are trying to give you their money. Not saying for sure that you have a ton of leaks but even when running bad you shouldn't have that big of a swing. I know this because when I had them it was deff me doing something wrong.

Have you heard of the beluga theorem? http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/baluga/


This is a good one too, WA/WB http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/general/way-ahead-way-behind/


And of course never underestimate the advantage of having position.

Sounds like you have lots of leaks that need plugging

Yeh 20 would be very rare i'd say for the level you're playing and if i was a gambling man I'd say you don't understand all the basic concepts of cash game play.

The links brank posted are golden.

what kind of stats are you running may explain the variance

I would look at your VPIP, PFR, 3b, steal, fold to steal, and another interesting thing to evaluate would be your positional statistics
are you opening to much in early position? are you raising enuf in late position?
at your stakes maybe you are bluffing to much? lots of calling stations at the lower limits
are you betting for value on the river?
gl at the tables,
t

Hi,

Thanks for the replies and useful links, I had a better day yesterday - 2BI up and hopefully the end of the 20BI downswing. I recovered from a 12 BI downswing before, so why not a 20?

Lucky I am still on my first deposit bonus and also about to get $100 in rewards, which will get the old bankroll back up to 40+ BI for 5NL.

I agree that there are still plenty of leaks in my game, tilt being one of them. Here are some others I have identified with PT3 and have been working on:

-Be MUCH more cautious with TPTK type hands...AKo is my biggest losing hand!
-Call less 3-bets...this was a really bad one
-Tighten up when facing a preflop raise
-Only play gapped suited connectors T8 and above

I am also playing a tighter starting hand range which should give me a VPIP of around 17-19 instead of 22-25. I read that it is better to play tighter as beginner at 6-max.

Onwards and upwards (hopefully )

Thanks for the replies and useful links, I had a better day yesterday - 2BI up and hopefully the end of the 20BI downswing. I recovered from a 12 BI downswing before, so why not a 20?

Click to expand...

Maybe you're just a loosing play on a 12BI heater? Don't like to say it but facing reality is the first way to become a better player.

Your posts are good on CC. Well explained, good questions, good layout etc which is pretty rare for people with 22 posts. So i'm sure you'll become a winning player at 5NL pretty soon if you stick around and take advice of people.

micromachine said:

Hi,


Lucky I am still on my first deposit bonus and also about to get $100 in rewards, which will get the old bankroll back up to 40+ BI for 5NL.

I agree that there are still plenty of leaks in my game, tilt being one of them. Here are some others I have identified with PT3 and have been working on:

-Be MUCH more cautious with TPTK type hands...AKo is my biggest losing hand!
-Call less 3-bets...this was a really bad one
-Tighten up when facing a preflop raise
-Only play gapped suited connectors T8 and above

I am also playing a tighter starting hand range which should give me a VPIP of around 17-19 instead of 22-25. I read that it is better to play tighter as beginner at 6-max.

Onwards and upwards (hopefully )

Click to expand...

How about posting a video of your play so we can see any basic errors you're making i'm sure a lot of people will be willing to watch it and give some advice.

massively under EV

Thanks jbbb, not sure how I would make a video of myself playing actually what software would you use to do that?

I am really wondering whether this 20BI downswing isn't half tilt + poor play and half variance. Look at this graph of my 30K hands at 5NL...before the downswing I was about $10 below EV (reasonable) and at the end of it I am about $60 below EV (horrible). I know you guys said I shouldn't worry about that line too much but doesn't it show that I have been beaten badly with the bad beat stick recently?

Goes back to a question I asked earlier in the thread but no-one answered yet: does bad play have any effect on being below EV or is it really just bad luck?

Thanks

Seriously you don't need to look at AIEV line. It doesn't really tell you anything.
Here's a thread if you really wanna read about it, but it's wayyyyyyyy tl;dr.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/7...-all-ev-horrible-measure-overall-luck-823386/
Basically a better way of seeing how your running is how often you hit sets, how often you get KK vs. AA, how often you get set over set or when you flop a flush someone else has a higher flush etc.
As you can tell all the above won't make a massive difference in the All-In EV line (because you're way behind), but you would say 'ahh im running so bad' if any of that stuff did happen.

For the video I use Camtasia but I can't post how to download publicly coz it's kinda illegal.

It gives you a free trial

Download free trail, download keygen, profit $$$$$$$

micromachine said:

Thanks jbbb, not sure how I would make a video of myself playing actually what software would you use to do that?

I am really wondering whether this 20BI downswing isn't half tilt + poor play and half variance. Look at this graph of my 30K hands at 5NL...before the downswing I was about $10 below EV (reasonable) and at the end of it I am about $60 below EV (horrible). I know you guys said I shouldn't worry about that line too much but doesn't it show that I have been beaten badly with the bad beat stick recently?

Goes back to a question I asked earlier in the thread but no-one answered yet: does bad play have any effect on being below EV or is it really just bad luck?

Thanks

Click to expand...

The ev line is how much you would make if you won exactly how much you were "expected" to win. So it's entirely luck. But another thing is not to give into the gambler's fallacy. If you are running 20 BIs under on the EV line, your expected EV line will be at 20 BIs under now. Why?

It's exactly the same reason that if you flip a 50 times and get 50 heads, you don't say "Well, I guess I expect to get 50 tails now". That's the gambler's fallacy. If you flip the coin another 50 times, you expect to get 25 heads and 25 tails. So your expection is then to be at 75 heads and 25 tails, but that is still expected.

Sorry if that got confusing.

brank said:

A 20 BIs downswing at 5nl 6 max is pretty ridic considering lots of players are trying to give you their money. Not saying for sure that you have a ton of leaks but even when running bad you shouldn't have that big of a swing. I know this because when I had them it was deff me doing something wrong.

Have you heard of the beluga theorem? http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/baluga/


This is a good one too, WA/WB http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/general/way-ahead-way-behind/


And of course never underestimate the advantage of having position.

Click to expand...

thanks for links brank