Originally Posted by micromachine
Thanks jbbb, not sure how I would make a video of myself playing actually what software would you use to do that?
I am really wondering whether this 20BI downswing isn't half tilt + poor play and half variance. Look at this graph of my 30K hands at 5NL...before the downswing I was about $10 below EV (reasonable) and at the end of it I am about $60 below EV (horrible). I know you guys said I shouldn't worry about that line too much but doesn't it show that I have been beaten badly with the bad beat stick recently?
Goes back to a question I asked earlier in the thread but no-one answered yet: does bad play have any effect on being below EV or is it really just bad luck?
The ev line is how much you would make if you won exactly how much you were "expected" to win. So it's entirely luck. But another thing is not to give into the gambler's fallacy. If you are running 20 BIs under on the EV line, your expected EV line will be at 20 BIs under now. Why?
It's exactly the same reason that if you flip a 50 times and get 50 heads, you don't say "Well, I guess I expect to get 50 tails now". That's the gambler's fallacy. If you flip the coin another 50 times, you expect to get 25 heads and 25 tails. So your expection is then to be at 75 heads and 25 tails, but that is still expected.
Sorry if that got confusing.