Originally Posted by Dorkus Malorkus
I think we need a hand history. :/
Not about any particular hand, but it is about a strategy to make money.
I think once in the money in these tigger tournies, and knowing that in 3 hands the payouts will jump, it is worthwhile being a ROCK, AA, KK, maybe QQ pf only. EVEN IF SHORTSTACKED!
The cards will dictate here. Especially if you are shortstacked. If the cards come, you will do good, if not, and you try to force something to happen you tend to bust out before you would if you are passive and let the blinds eat you. Every player at the table, once ITM, has some talent and savvy, and will know your M is low, and you are in a must hit situation. You will fool no one but yourself.
Imagine your M is 3, (you can make 3 orbits at the present blinds/ante level). In 3 orbits, at this stage of these tourney's, can see 25 hands (approx) which works out to approx 8 possible payout bumps. This is significant pocket change. In those 25 hands, you get 25 more chances to see monsters, and even as your stack reduction gets critical, your call equity goes up (for this discussion, call equity is the chance you will get called when you do shove, which will be exactly what you want).
Of course, if you are in your last possible orbit, you have to shove something. But having stretched it this far with nothing, you may have made yourself $1000. Or more!
This concept ties in with the AA near the bubble threads, where it can be argued that folding AA can be a +EV move. It gets tricky, especially right after the bubble bursts, when what I see normally happens is that all of those players who have shown restraint, suddenly blow up.