Starting Hand WIN Percentage

Lefty Blue

Lefty Blue

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My first post so hopefully this is not covered elsewhere. We are all familiar with the chart we got at the beginning showing all starting hands in the win percentage against RANDOM HANDS.
My question is the win percentage of various hands against other hands that would be in the top 20.

An example would be:
you have pocket Queens as the big blind. Three people have put in minimum raises and your knowledge of them indicates they all have a hand that would be in the top 20 starting hands but do not have pocket Aces or Kings. If you go all in with your Queens what are the odds of winning?
 
nabmom

nabmom

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Hi and congratulations on your first post. There are several ways to figure out odds and your changes in a hand. The first thing I'll suggest is take a look at our Odds Calculator. I've added the link here and it's also at the top of that page right next to the link to our News forum. Take a look and tell us what you think.
 
Lefty Blue

Lefty Blue

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Thank you, definitely something I should have.

Don't know if it would help much in this situation though. The only thing I know about my opponents is they do not have pocket aces or pocket kings and they do have one of the top 20 starting hands. Kind of need to know my win percentage if one, two, or all three players call my all-in.
 
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braveslice

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Hey Lefty good guestions, here is my take to this:

1. Win percentage does matter, but indirectly, we are really interested about EV, that is expected value http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/expected-value/
2. EV ranking of hands: https://www.tightpoker.com/hands/ev_position.html From there you can see the performance of different hands
3. For you example, you are interested again about EV. But the cardchat odds calculator is not really usable for daily tool for poker players, for that you need a tool that can input ranges. Two popular are propokertools (web) and Equilab (free software).

So your example solved:

Create ranges in tool:
Villain1 range: {QQ-77, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+}
Villain2 range: {QQ-77, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+}
Villain3 range: {QQ-77, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+}
Hero {QQ}

Solve using the tool: Hero wins 48% of time, this the the result you use in EV calculations to see if play is profitable or not.

http://www.propokertools.com/simula...,KsTs+,QsTs+,JsTs,AxTy+,KxJy+&h4=QQ&s=generic

Click down ‘Edit this simulation’ to try different things.

If we assume all 3 villains call your shove:
EV= 0.48*300bb – 0.52*100bb = 92bb average profit, so hero double up on average
 
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Stuey

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QQ against 3 opponents that you assume they don't hold AA or KK
You are 46% and each of them have 18% each
46:18:18:18

If you shove $100 and all call the pot will be $400 and you take out on average 46% of $400 that's $184. You make a $84 profit each time you make that play.
 
Lefty Blue

Lefty Blue

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THANK YOU

Strut and Braveslice!
Just what I needed. Unfortunately now I have to think, difficult for me but I'll give it a try.
Thanks again 😊
 
Lefty Blue

Lefty Blue

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Same situation as above except BB hero has JJ. I haven't been able to follow up on the excellent suggestions but intuition suggests with one or 2 of the villains possibly holding QQ this is a tighter call.
Any math ?
 
Trick1988

Trick1988

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QQ against 3 opponents that you assume they don't hold AA or KK
You are 46% and each of them have 18% each
46:18:18:18

If you shove $100 and all call the pot will be $400 and you take out on average 46% of $400 that's $184. You make a $84 profit each time you make that play.

Well explained, I liked it, briefly, clearly, informative.
 
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