So so annoying

S

stuventus

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playing at 5c10c and most people get AA / KK and limp

how many times will i flop two pair and they slowplay. I get it all in on the turn -they at this point think they are ahead with one pair! ........and the board makes another pair and they win.

So annoying

What are the odds of this happening anybody?
 
B

BluffYou123

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Not sure about the odds, but I too have suffered alot from this.

Why isn't it one of your cards that pairs the board to give you a FH?

It's a cruel way to be beaten for sure.
 
XxJackAcexX

XxJackAcexX

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the odds on that happening are usually 50/50
Those hits are tough... but if you flop 2 pair and your opponent flops a pair with a substantial over card still avail to hit, they have the pot odds to stay active in the hand..
Those tough hits are regular random part of poker.
All you can do is keep at it... Always pay attention to what over cards still might be better than what you have..
Even though you took a tough hit... you still have to clear your head and think....
What were my pot odds?
What equity did my hand hold to the community?

Your opponent calling your all in on the turn on a pair and over card was a good call.... He/She had the pot odds and the equity to stay in the hand till the end.
Just remember good luck swings just as fast as bad luck...Just keep at it and Anaylze everything..
I hope this helps...
Good Luck!!!

{remember}-----Only my opinion and i'm not always right....Opinons and play will vary....Just stay focused!!!!
 
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dufferdevon

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the odds on that happening are usually 50/50
Those hits are tough... but if you flop 2 pair and your opponent flops a pair with a substantial over card still avail to hit, they have the pot odds to stay active in the hand..

His post says that villain limped into the pot with AA or KK and did not hit a pair on the flop. They had an over pair to the board.

In most micro games and MTT, an overpair is not going to fold as they think you are betting top pair. All you can do is make them pay to stay in the hand.
 
PattyR

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well when you hit your 2 pair do you shove all in?

because if your only making the minimum or only half pot or even full pot sized bets than he is getting the right odds to call ya.

like someone said its kinda sucky that when you have 2 pair the board doesn hit your full house. poker can be so so cruel my friend, just be sure to get all your money in the pot WITH the best hand, aka when you hit your 2nd pair.
 
Stu_Ungar

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playing at 5c10c and most people get AA / KK and limp

how many times will i flop two pair and they slowplay. I get it all in on the turn -they at this point think they are ahead with one pair! ........and the board makes another pair and they win.

So annoying

What are the odds of this happening anybody?

2.83:1

and 2.29:1 if you include the times he makes trips and wins

So if your all-in on the turn is pot sized or less, its either a slight mistake on his part or a correct call.

Now if your all-in bet on the turn is way over pot sized.. its an easy fold so you are driving out the hands you beat and only being called by better hands.

mmmm

:)
 
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PC69

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2.83:1

and 2.29:1 if you include the times he makes trips and wins

So if your all-in on the turn is pot sized or less, its either a slight mistake on his part or a correct call.

Now if your all-in bet on the turn is way over pot sized.. its an easy fold so you are driving out the hands you beat and only being called by better hands.

mmmm

:)


+1
 
ericgarner118

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I don't understand how someone with just an over pair has the odds to call and all in on the turn. I played around a bit with pokerstove and if you have two pair on the turn, AA only has about 20% chance to win. How would a pot sized bet, or a more, give them the odds to call?
 
Stu_Ungar

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I don't understand how someone with just an over pair has the odds to call and all in on the turn. I played around a bit with pokerstove and if you have two pair on the turn, AA only has about 10% chance to win. How would a pot sized bet, or a more, give them the odds to call?

Because they dominate a lower pair 8 outs to 2P and 2 to trips.

If the all in is around pot sized on the turn, they cannot really fold unless the player is so tight that they are virtually positve he has a set... and... would a set go all in and risk driving out a lower hand?
 
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ericgarner118

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He doesn't have eight outs to two pair, he has six. He can only use 2/4 cards on the board to make his two pair. That is 6, and then the two to make a set. that's only eight total. So he has 8/44 cards that can help him or 5.5:1 against, and if you bet the pot he would only bet getting odds of 2:1. Am i just missing something?
 
Stu_Ungar

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He doesn't have eight outs to two pair, he has six. He can only use 2/4 cards on the board to make his two pair. That is 6, and then the two to make a set. that's only eight total. So he has 8/44 cards that can help him or 5.5:1 against, and if you bet the pot he would only bet getting odds of 2:1. Am i just missing something?

= 8


You are missing the possibility that your OP pair is good.

The all in on the turn means that we are in SS teritory and therefore pairs and high aces predominate.

When I calculated 2.83:1 I wasn't factoring in his 2 pair, but it really dosent change things much.

We are looking at a situation with stacks around 20BB (standard raise and call preflop.. followed by half pot bet flop and call, followed by a pot sized turn shove)

Deep stacked the pair is unlikely to be as good because the shove is huge.. but SS, AA post flop .. its an all in hand, the only question is how do I gat my opponent to put in his last 15BB? So when he shoves, of course its called.. its likely to be ahead and it had 8 outs if it isnt.

The only reason it was limped preflop was to get this kind of action.

The game playes differently SS than Deep stacked. But the key to why its right to call is because its all in on the turn. In a deeper game you would have to expect a further bet on the river and therefore fold.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Oh and there is something a bit more subtle about the example given.

If AA or KK wins by spiking a second pair on the river, then we can assume that the flop doesn't contain an A or a K.

As the you hold 2 pair on the flop, we can assume that your starting hands were neither high aces or pairs.

Therefore your range must include ATC or AT suited Cards. Meaning that your range is wide open and that an OP to the board has a great deal of value against your range.
 
ericgarner118

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So what you are talking about is what the villain would be thinking in the hand, not what the actual hand is?
 
cardplayer52

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He doesn't have eight outs to two pair, he has six. He can only use 2/4 cards on the board to make his two pair. That is 6, and then the two to make a set. that's only eight total. So he has 8/44 cards that can help him or 5.5:1 against, and if you bet the pot he would only bet getting odds of 2:1. Am i just missing something?

well your close but not quite there. there are 8 known cards and 44 unknown. so 44-8=36 cards that don't help the over pair and 8 that do. so 36 / 8 = 4.5 to 1 . so the odds of an over pair beating 2 pair when allin on the turn is 4.5 to 1 against. or 22.2% keep geting your money in good it will pay.

--acually the odds of the board pairing and you losing to higher 2 pair is 6.3 to 1.(but this doesnt include the sets). 44(known)-6(cards that will pair the board and youll lose)=38 / 6 = 6.33 to 1
 
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Stu_Ungar

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So what you are talking about is what the villain would be thinking in the hand, not what the actual hand is?

Thats poker! its not about exact hands, its about ranges and bet sizes. In this situation the range is wide enough and the bet samll enough that an OP is good.

The 8 outs against 2 pair also come in to play. A set, well you cant do much about that.. its a possibility, you do have 2 outs but really the stacks are low enough that set-minig shouldn't be a stratagy anyway.
 
ericgarner118

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O.k., I understand what you are saying now. I thought you meant that in this exact hand, the villain had the odds to call. He doesn't, but since he doesn't know or holdings he has the odds against or range.
 
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When this happens to me. I will just stop playing for a while and cool down. Even when I get good cards, but am frustrated, it hurts my game play.
 
Stu_Ungar

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odds are great when dealing with "card generators"


And you can prove this?

Please explain your reasoning in the riggtard thread.
 
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Stu_Ungar

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O.k., I understand what you are saying now. I thought you meant that in this exact hand, the villain had the odds to call. He doesn't, but since he doesn't know or holdings he has the odds against or range.


Thats it.

If it were a pure drawing situation, i.e. he has a flush draw, then he needs correct odds otherwise its a LR losing play because if he dosent hit his draw he loses.

But when holding a hand like an OP, you can add some value to the hand (reducing the odds required) as its possible that the OP is good.

If you feel that your OP has 15% equity against his range, then taking the odds given become correct. 15% equity is about 8 outs... so play it as though you have 16 outs rather than 8.

Obviously its range dependent, but from one of my posts above, we can show that the poster has a wide range. I should imagine he called with mid suited conectors and hit his 2 pair.
 
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