So this happened on the same table with the same player....

Thinker_145

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I have played hundreds of thousands of hands online and have a good idea of what variance is. However I had never ever experienced something like this. These are all in order....

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 166.68 BB (VPIP: 22.48, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, Hands: 12,166)
Hero (SB): 117.62 BB
BB: 159.86 BB (VPIP: 26.26, PFR: 21.53, 3Bet Preflop: 8.15, Hands: 3,828)
UTG: 78.08 BB (VPIP: 76.92, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 13)
MP: 112.42 BB (VPIP: 77.78, PFR: 25.93, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 27)
CO: 154.64 BB (VPIP: 22.92, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 5.69, Hands: 1,156)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:diamond: J:spade:

UTG calls 1 BB, MP raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 46 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 39 BB

Flop: (94 BB, 2 players) 2:heart: T:diamond: K:club:
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (94 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
Hero bets 71.62 BB, MP calls 66.42 BB

River: (226.84 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond:

MP shows Q:heart: T:heart: (Full House, Tens full of Twos)
(Pre 33%, Flop 24%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows J:diamond: J:spade: (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 67%, Flop 76%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 5.2 BB
MP wins 220.84 BB

So he called that much with QTs pre? No problem we will get his money....I only checked to induce a bluff I was never folding after the preflop raise.

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 165.68 BB (VPIP: 22.46, PFR: 16.47, 3Bet Preflop: 5.42, Hands: 12,175)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 156.36 BB (VPIP: 26.24, PFR: 21.52, 3Bet Preflop: 8.13, Hands: 3,839)
MP: 60.74 BB (VPIP: 77.78, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 18)
CO: 239.78 BB (VPIP: 81.25, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 32)
BTN: 153.14 BB (VPIP: 22.87, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.62, Hands: 1,167)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7:diamond: A:diamond:

fold, fold, CO raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, CO calls 94 BB

Flop: (200.5 BB, 2 players) 2:club: 4:spade: 6:diamond:

Turn: (200.5 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:

River: (200.5 BB, 2 players) 7:club:

CO shows Q:heart: 9:heart: (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 44%, Flop 22%, Turn 93%)
Hero mucks 7:diamond: A:diamond: (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 56%, Flop 78%, Turn 7%)
CO wins 194.5 BB

Oh boy...

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 150.72 BB (VPIP: 22.47, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, Hands: 12,201)
Hero (SB): 116.14 BB
BB: 317.4 BB (VPIP: 26.21, PFR: 21.53, 3Bet Preflop: 8.08, Hands: 3,865)
UTG: 93.38 BB (VPIP: 79.55, PFR: 31.82, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 44)
CO: 274.88 BB (VPIP: 22.96, PFR: 16.45, 3Bet Preflop: 5.68, Hands: 1,193)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:diamond: J:club:

UTG raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 116.14 BB and is all-in, fold, UTG calls 84.38 BB

Flop: (187.76 BB, 2 players) 3:club: 9:heart: 6:heart:

Turn: (187.76 BB, 2 players) T:heart:

River: (187.76 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:

UTG shows Q:club: J:spade: (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 16%, Turn 25%)
Hero shows J:diamond: J:club: (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 67%, Flop 84%, Turn 75%)
Hero wins 22.76 BB
UTG wins 181.76 BB

Really?

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 131.96 BB (VPIP: 22.49, PFR: 16.49, 3Bet Preflop: 5.44, Hands: 12,230)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 313.88 BB (VPIP: 26.29, PFR: 21.59, 3Bet Preflop: 8.10, Hands: 3,893)
UTG: 97.5 BB (VPIP: 27.01, PFR: 14.43, 3Bet Preflop: 2.16, Hands: 1,796)
MP: 164.28 BB (VPIP: 83.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.12, Hands: 60)
CO: 309.46 BB (VPIP: 23.14, PFR: 16.60, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 1,219)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7:heart: A:spade:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, fold, MP calls 99 BB

Flop: (201 BB, 2 players) 8:club: K:heart: 5:heart:

Turn: (201 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:

River: (201 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:

MP shows J:heart: 6:heart: (Flush, King High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 51%, Turn 32%)
Hero mucks 7:heart: A:spade: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 60%, Flop 49%, Turn 68%)
MP wins 195 BB

You can't be serious?

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 131.96 BB (VPIP: 22.49, PFR: 16.49, 3Bet Preflop: 5.44, Hands: 12,231)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 312.88 BB (VPIP: 26.28, PFR: 21.59, 3Bet Preflop: 8.09, Hands: 3,894)
BB: 97.5 BB (VPIP: 26.99, PFR: 14.42, 3Bet Preflop: 2.16, Hands: 1,797)
UTG: 259.28 BB (VPIP: 83.61, PFR: 32.79, 3Bet Preflop: 12.12, Hands: 61)
MP: 309.46 BB (VPIP: 23.12, PFR: 16.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 1,220)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6:diamond: 6:spade:

UTG raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG calls 92 BB

Flop: (201.5 BB, 2 players) 3:club: 8:spade: 9:diamond:

Turn: (201.5 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:

River: (201.5 BB, 2 players) J:heart:

UTG shows 8:diamond: A:diamond: (Two Pair, Eights and Threes)
(Pre 47%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
Hero mucks 6:diamond: 6:spade: (Two Pair, Sixes and Threes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
UTG wins 195.5 BB

But of course how can I win a flip.....

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 125.5 BB (VPIP: 22.50, PFR: 16.49, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, Hands: 12,239)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 319.76 BB (VPIP: 26.25, PFR: 21.57, 3Bet Preflop: 8.07, Hands: 3,902)
BTN: 101.38 BB (VPIP: 26.93, PFR: 14.36, 3Bet Preflop: 2.15, Hands: 1,805)
SB: 347.14 BB (VPIP: 85.51, PFR: 34.78, 3Bet Preflop: 13.51, Hands: 69)
BB: 310.76 BB (VPIP: 23.21, PFR: 16.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.70, Hands: 1,228)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: 5:heart:

fold, Hero calls 1 BB, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, SB raises to 5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 95 BB

Flop: (202 BB, 2 players) 3:spade: 6:diamond: T:spade:

Turn: (202 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:

River: (202 BB, 2 players) 4:diamond:

Hero mucks A:club: 5:heart: (Straight, Six High)
(Pre 56%, Flop 44%, Turn 0%)
SB shows K:spade: 8:spade: (Flush, King High)
(Pre 44%, Flop 56%, Turn 100%)
SB wins 196 BB

What is this I don't even.........

Surprisingly enough despite this absolute catastrophe I did not tilt. I actually got some of my money back and did wipe him out in 3 hands.

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 260.5 BB (VPIP: 22.51, PFR: 16.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.48, Hands: 12,243)
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 318.26 BB (VPIP: 26.23, PFR: 21.54, 3Bet Preflop: 8.07, Hands: 3,906)
SB: 99.38 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 14.33, 3Bet Preflop: 2.15, Hands: 1,809)
BB: 308.64 BB (VPIP: 86.30, PFR: 35.62, 3Bet Preflop: 13.51, Hands: 73)
UTG: 305.62 BB (VPIP: 23.30, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.68, Hands: 1,232)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, Hero posts penalty blind 1.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 3 BB) Hero has 2:spade: K:club:

fold, fold, Hero checks, fold, fold, BB raises to 6 BB, Hero raises to 99.5 BB and is all-in, BB calls 93.5 BB

Flop: (200 BB, 2 players) Q:spade: 2:diamond: 2:heart:

Turn: (200 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:

River: (200 BB, 2 players) T:club:

Hero shows 2:spade: K:club: (Three of a Kind, Twos)
(Pre 28%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
BB shows 9:heart: 9:club: (Two Pair, Nines and Twos)
(Pre 72%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 194 BB

So it seems like the formula for beating him was to get it in with the worse hand. :D
On a serious note this wasn't tilt. The hands he had called with I think K high is good to shove.

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 260.5 BB (VPIP: 22.51, PFR: 16.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.48, Hands: 12,245)
Hero (UTG): 189 BB
MP: 318.26 BB (VPIP: 26.21, PFR: 21.53, 3Bet Preflop: 8.07, Hands: 3,908)
CO: 109.08 BB (VPIP: 26.95, PFR: 14.32, 3Bet Preflop: 2.15, Hands: 1,811)
BTN: 204.14 BB (VPIP: 86.67, PFR: 36.00, 3Bet Preflop: 13.51, Hands: 75)
SB: 304.62 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 16.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.68, Hands: 1,234)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3:diamond: 3:spade:

Hero calls 1 BB, fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 9:diamond: 6:club: 3:club:
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets 9 BB, Hero raises to 41.24 BB, fold, BTN calls 32.24 BB

Turn: (92.98 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
Hero bets 102.26 BB, BTN calls 102.26 BB

River: (297.5 BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
Hero bets 42.5 BB, BTN calls 42.5 BB

Hero shows 3:diamond: 3:spade: (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 50%, Flop 67%, Turn 75%)
BTN shows 9:club: 5:club: (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 50%, Flop 33%, Turn 25%)
Hero wins 376.5 BB

Now that was close like really close. What happens if he sucks out in this one too? Boy o boy I don't know what I would have done. I am so glad I didn't get to see an even more brutal side of variance.

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 261.3 BB (VPIP: 22.49, PFR: 16.49, 3Bet Preflop: 5.47, Hands: 12,253)
Hero (SB): 373 BB
BB: 334.82 BB (VPIP: 26.22, PFR: 21.55, 3Bet Preflop: 8.06, Hands: 3,916)
UTG: 106.08 BB (VPIP: 26.94, PFR: 14.31, 3Bet Preflop: 2.14, Hands: 1,819)
MP: 29.22 BB (VPIP: 84.15, PFR: 36.59, 3Bet Preflop: 15.00, Hands: 82)
CO: 303.62 BB (VPIP: 23.27, PFR: 16.63, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 1,242)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:spade: T:heart:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, fold, MP calls 28.22 BB, fold

Flop: (60.44 BB, 2 players) Q:heart: 3:diamond: 4:spade:

Turn: (60.44 BB, 2 players) 5:spade:

River: (60.44 BB, 2 players) A:heart:

MP shows 6:spade: T:club: (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 26%, Flop 4%, Turn 18%)
Hero shows Q:spade: T:heart: (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 74%, Flop 96%, Turn 82%)
Hero wins 58.2 BB

The final blow. The hard part is that such players come once in a blue moon at 50NL and I ended up 300BB down while the other regs partied. :(
 
Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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The point of this post is to simply share how brutal variance can be. The more I play poker the more of a bankroll nit I become for both live and online poker. Fortunately my bankroll was healthy enough to sustain this but it definitely puts things into perspective. This could have been worse the guy could have stopped playing before I had any chance of getting some of my money back or I could have lost that 33 hand.
 
vegasjj

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Crazy streak - good for you - that you stack with it. I know I would have left - and left poker tables for the day....
I suppose that is why I am not a cash game player - lol

Obviously you made the right decision.
 
mbrenneman0

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Why are you shoving in all these spots?
 
Thinker_145

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Crazy streak - good for you - that you stack with it. I know I would have left - and left poker tables for the day....
I suppose that is why I am not a cash game player - lol

Obviously you made the right decision.
Fortunately for the whole session I was actually up in the end, that's the beauty of multi tabling and it really helps my morale right now.
 
mbrenneman0

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Because the guy is calling with worse...

doesnt seem like it in the ones you lost.. yeah some of the ones you posted that you lost, but when you shoved preflop with A7s in the second example.... really? hes aways calling you with worse there? any decent player would only call you with better there. or when you shoved with two tens on the board in the first example, was a 10 outside of his range there? just seems to me like you gambled away a lot of stacks, then you decided to start playing poker and start winning. Im no expert by any degree, but thats just what it seems like to me.
 
Thinker_145

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doesnt seem like it in the ones you lost.. yeah some of the ones you posted that you lost, but when you shoved preflop with A7s in the second example.... really? hes aways calling you with worse there? any decent player would only call you with better there. or when you shoved with two tens on the board in the first example, was a 10 outside of his range there? just seems to me like you gambled away a lot of stacks, then you decided to start playing poker and start winning. Im no expert by any degree, but thats just what it seems like to me.
Really? So in which of my losing hands I got my money in with a worse hand? Have you even paid attention to the hands?

The only exception is the first hand where I put 40% of my stack in preflop with the best hand and I out flopped my opponent. Trust me it does not matter how I play that hand the money was going in always. bluffing aside you pretty much never fold a hand after putting in 40% effective stacks pre.

Actually the real exception where I did have the worse hand is K2 but I won it.

What do you mean gambling? There is an element of gambling in poker no matter how you play. The only goal in cash game poker is to get all your money in while you are ahead and likely to be called by worse hands. A fish who is willing to call all in preflop with a huge range of hands is a dream come true and doesn't happen that often.
 
mbrenneman0

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I just dont see how at the point where you shoved in the first, second, and third examples how you know so certainly that they were only going to call with worse hands when you shoved.

obviously looking at what they showed, they did actually call with worse hands in the second and third example, but i just dont see how you know. I'm a bit of a noob, maybe you can explain it to me?

EDIT: okay, so looking closer i can understand the first hand why you would shove here, but in the second and third examples i still dont see it... his range is basically any two cards. so in those two spots, shoving preflop against his 3x raise seems like as much of a dice roll as anything
 
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Thinker_145

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I just dont see how at the point where you shoved in the first, second, and third examples how you know so certainly that they were only going to call with worse hands when you shoved.

obviously looking at what they showed, they did actually call with worse hands in the second and third example, but i just dont see how you know. I'm a bit of a noob, maybe you can explain it to me?

EDIT: okay, so looking closer i can understand the first hand why you would shove here, but in the second and third examples i still dont see it... his range is basically any two cards. so in those two spots, shoving preflop against his 3x raise seems like as much of a dice roll as anything
Why do you think I made such an unusually large raise in the first hand? Because I was watching this table and I noticed this guy simply wasn't folding preflop. So I decided to see just how much of a maniac he really is and I did it with a premium hand. So he called almost half of his stack pre with QTs? It's only natural for me to shove A7 on such a guy, if he happens to have a better hand than me in that spot it's just a cooler.

After the second hand it's pretty much established we are against a super maniac. And then he pretty much never changed gears throughout the session.

I played the 33 hand differently because now I was at 200BB and that changes not only my shoving range but I believe the fish's calling range as well.
 
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If his range is any 2 cards, having an Ace means we are ahead.

If we know villain is shoving ATC we might as well just get it in with loads of hands. The money aint gonna last long so we have to try and get what we can.
 
mbrenneman0

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Why do you think I made such an unusually large raise in the first hand? Because I was watching this table and I noticed this guy simply wasn't folding preflop. So I decided to see just how much of a maniac he really is and I did it with a premium hand. So he called almost half of his stack pre with QTs? It's only natural for me to shove A7 on such a guy, if he happens to have a better hand than me in that spot it's just a cooler.

After the second hand it's pretty much established we are against a super maniac. And then he pretty much never changed gears throughout the session.

I played the 33 hand differently because now I was at 200BB and that changes not only my shoving range but I believe the fish's calling range as well.

If his range is any 2 cards, having an Ace means we are ahead.

If we know villain is shoving ATC we might as well just get it in with loads of hands. The money aint gonna last long so we have to try and get what we can.
so his all-in calling range was as insanely wide as his PFR? thats pretty bizarre... like at that point he's one step away from raising all in on his own every hand.
 
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If he is calling with atc, why are we not value betting Jacks on the flop, if your never folding anyways, what is the point of waiting for the money to get in, when the only thing in the hand is your equity decreases. Alot of these shoves look really thin and over dramatic like a sense of tilt hit you, yes you were ahead, but your talking in the range of 6-8%, I'm not sure that is anything I would be fist pumping about after rake.
 
Thinker_145

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If he is calling with atc, why are we not value betting Jacks on the flop, if your never folding anyways, what is the point of waiting for the money to get in, when the only thing in the hand is your equity decreases. Alot of these shoves look really thin and over dramatic like a sense of tilt hit you, yes you were ahead, but your talking in the range of 6-8%, I'm not sure that is anything I would be fist pumping about after rake.
Just wanted to allow him to bury himself once, remember in the first hand it's not fully established what sort of a player he is. Knowing what happened in the other hands do you really think he folds middle pair on the flop......

Regarding your second point well I am ahead 12% in the second hand, 34% in the third, 20% in the fourth, 7% in the fifth and 20% in the sixth. That's average 19% equity don't know what better you can want against a maniac. You will pretty much have to wait for big pockets to significantly improve on that and I don't know why any cash game player will. This isn't the first time I have done this with a player like this, I am fully aware that shoving any non PP hand pre vs ATC call is a high variance game. But six in a row....
 
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Villain probably a recreational player having fun or maybe on tilt.
 
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I wasn't talking about your JJ hand you have a made premium hand, but yes it looked like you were just posting bad beat after bad beat, the Jack hand sucks, but is life of poker.

I still like betting your jacks better if you were never folding especially since any broadway card significantly hurts your equity and you are close to being pot committed anyhow. A k rag rag hand is a lot better hand to be inducing than the above, so many straight draws and what not.

If you didn't know what type of player he is why in the world did you make it so big, is it standard for you to commit yourself preflop with Jacks?
 
Thinker_145

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I wasn't talking about your JJ hand you have a made premium hand, but yes it looked like you were just posting bad beat after bad beat, the Jack hand sucks, but is life of poker.

I still like betting your jacks better if you were never folding especially since any broadway card significantly hurts your equity and you are close to being pot committed anyhow. A k rag rag hand is a lot better hand to be inducing than the above, so many straight draws and what not.

If you didn't know what type of player he is why in the world did you make it so big, is it standard for you to commit yourself preflop with Jacks?
Look I can agree that checking the flop was probably not the most appropriate thing to do but it would not have made any difference in the end. My reasoning for checking the flop is that if he has a K then I am bust anyways but in case he doesn't let's give him a chance to bluff.

I knew by the time I had the first JJ hand that he is a fish and his super sized 2 bet range was all over the place as there had been a few showdowns that I wasn't involved in. No I don't commit myself with JJ but against agro fish I do.

At 50NL it's not exactly terrible play to stack off 100BB with JJ even against the better players purely due to how aggressive everyone is.
 
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No but in a nutshell it is terrible to go from 7bb to 49, you will likely be crushed with the occasional flip.
 
Thinker_145

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No but in a nutshell it is terrible to go from 7bb to 49, you will likely be crushed with the occasional flip.
Not if you get called by a hand you are way ahead of. If you think you have the better hand pre you raise as much as you think you will be called.
 
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remember in the first hand it's not fully established what sort of a player he is. Knowing what happened in the other hands do you really think he folds middle pair on the flop......

You just said this. I'm done disputing, but if you don't know the villain enough the raise size is terrible.
 
Thinker_145

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You just said this. I'm done disputing, but if you don't know the villain enough the raise size is terrible.
Ya sorry I should have said it wasn't established what sort of a fish he is. I certainly knew he is a fish I wouldn't just make that bet vs unknown.
 
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