Skewed Hand Distributions

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fx20736

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I'm wondering if the looser a player gets the more skewed their hand distributions becomes. Assuming a very tight player has a good idea of EV and would know to fold A9o from MP but open raise with QJs then does it make sense that looser(and aggressive) players tend to raise more with weak Aces and possibly Kings and call more with hands that have decent raising value (I'm thinking 77 88 99 QTs) ? If that is a fair assumption how would that determine how you played your hands? Would you surrender QQ more easily on A high flop when your c-bet gets called? Would you play more suited connectors IP? Would you call 3bets OOP with a strong range so that if you have AK and get re-raised you could profitably flat knowing that if the flop is K high he may stack off with KTo?

etc.
 
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fx20736

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why would you cbet an A high flop with QQ?

An Ace usually kills the action so if your opponent doesn't have one you take down a small pot, if he does you lose a small pot. If you check the flop and he bets he could be bluffing and you're surrendering with the best hand.
 
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An Ace usually kills the action so if your opponent doesn't have one you take down a small pot, if he does you lose a small pot. If you check the flop and he bets he could be bluffing and you're surrendering with the best hand.

QQ with ace high pot is a check call situation imo..
 
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fx20736

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only if you fold.


ok. so your UTG and are dealt QQ. A loose 24/18 player with a call PFR of 14% calls your pf raise. With his PFR he could be calling 22+ ATo+ Broadways & suited connectors. Flop comes fown A72 rainbow.

So let's say you check and he bets. The Ace represents about 37% of his assumed range but so do sm pps and suited connectors. If you check and he bets did he hit the Ace, does he have a set, a weak draw or is he floating? By not betting here you have no idea where you are at in this hand. When I have QQ and an Ace hits I pretty much lose interest in the hand. What hand could possibly stack off on that flop? KK JJ TT??. And if you call and the turn is a blank then you either bet out or check/fold, only the 4bb bet you called on the flop could have been the 9 1/2 bb you won by c-betting? If his call PFR is 14% tha's about 185 combinations of hands he might call you with. If he always calls with an A or a 7 or a 2 and that is something like 77 22 ATs+ ATo+ 87s 76s then that with that flop he has 12 A combos, 3 77 combos, 3 22 combos, 12 87s combos, 12 76s combos for a total of 42 combinations out of 185. If he folds every time he misses he folds 122 times and calls 42 so your EV is (128*9 1/2 bb)-(42*4bb)= 5.31bb. If he only folds half of his misses then the EV is 1.77bb if you check/ fold the turn every time. If you check the turn and he checks behind and you get to a showdown if he say pairs the turn or river with an underpair your EV goes up.

i just can't see checking this flop, ever.
 
BelgoSuisse

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if villain has position, the best hand and plays perfectly, you're going to lose money, yes.

but betting in a situation where you're always called by hands that beat you and always fold hands that you beat is not the way to solve the problem.
 
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fx20736

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if villain has position, the best hand and plays perfectly, you're going to lose money, yes.

but betting in a situation where you're always called by hands that beat you and always fold hands that you beat is not the way to solve the problem.


If less than half his range beats you then does it matter if the hands that call are ahead (Ax, 77,22) or have lots of out to improve (87s 76s). Wouldn't it be better to be bluffed on the turn by a pair of 7's then c'f to ??? on the flop???
 
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What Belgo is referring to is WA/WB. Type that into the search bar.
 
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fx20736

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What Belgo is referring to is WA/WB. Type that into the search bar.

I'm familiar with Way Ahead/ Way Behind. thanks.

btw; what stakes do you play at? I play 2nl/ 5nl. At those levels checking is usually perceived as a sign of weakness. There is a strong push/ pull dynamic at this level, that goes; If I bet you will check or fold but if I check you will bet. Not to say villains won't often check behind but the first bluff they dream up in their heads is the ole' represent the ace bluff.
This is carried even further because so many 2nl/ 5nl players never think about their opponent's hand so they may bet or raise without any thought to your holding. Here is a perfect example:

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
CO: $2.12
BTN: $3.03
SB: $1.45
Hero (BB): $2.23
UTG: $2.05
UTG+1: $0.75
MP: $2.03
SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has K A
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.08, Hero raises to $0.24, SB raises to $0.72, Hero calls $0.48
Flop: ($1.44, 2 players) K 4 T
SB bets $0.73 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.73
Turn: ($2.90, 2 players) 5
River: ($2.90, 2 players) J
SB shows 3 3 (One Pair, Threes)
Hero shows K A (One Pair, Kings)
Hero wins $2.71

Since they are not thinking about your cards, you cannot think about what they are thinking about your hand. i.e. Your hand at the micros has an unknown relative value in many instances so you have to fall back on the absolute value of your hand, i.e. TPTK, overpair,etc. This does mean that you will stack off when you hit the top of villain's range at times but there are certain players that you cannot 3bet effectively because they will 4bet with 33 against hero who has played tight poker at that table for 47 minutes. It gets even wierder because his session stats to that point were 17.65/ 11.76. He was playing Tight and Aggressive, he just was playing that style very poorly.

At the level I play you need to plan to bet 3 streets or be prepared to surrender a hand. Of course this does mean building pots that are a little large but the solution to that is: play very tight when OOP and keep bet sizes relatively small on dry boards, 1/2 pot in flop, 1/2 pot on turn, 1/3 pot on river. Otherwise it is wiser to check/fold which is one of the reasons I don't play small pp's OOP. There is no need to balance my range because they're not thinking about my range, they don't even know what a range is.

Which brings me back to my original point about skewed hand distributions. When OOP I think it is better to bet A high boards than to check. In many instances this will be a bluff but in many others it will be a value bet, i.e. when I am playing my tightest style my opening hands UTG are TT+ AQs+ AKo. In that distribution I will be holding an Ace 52% of the time and when I am playing my loosest my EP range is 88+ AJs+ AQo+ KQs so there I am holding an Ace 41% of the time.

I'm sure at higher levels this doesn't work but as I worked through this reply I think the answer for the micros is: Bet the Ace!
 
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imwatcher

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I'm familiar with Way Ahead/ Way Behind. thanks.

btw; what stakes do you play at? I play 2nl/ 5nl. At those levels checking is usually perceived as a sign of weakness. There is a strong push/ pull dynamic at this level, that goes; If I bet you will check or fold but if I check you will bet. Not to say villains won't often check behind but the first bluff they dream up in their heads is the ole' represent the ace bluff.
This is carried even further because so many 2nl/ 5nl players never think about their opponent's hand so they may bet or raise without any thought to your holding. Here is a perfect example:

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
CO: $2.12
BTN: $3.03
SB: $1.45
Hero (BB): $2.23
UTG: $2.05
UTG+1: $0.75
MP: $2.03
SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has K A
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.08, Hero raises to $0.24, SB raises to $0.72, Hero calls $0.48
Flop: ($1.44, 2 players) K 4 T
SB bets $0.73 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.73
Turn: ($2.90, 2 players) 5
River: ($2.90, 2 players) J
SB shows 3 3 (One Pair, Threes)
Hero shows K A (One Pair, Kings)
Hero wins $2.71

Since they are not thinking about your cards, you cannot think about what they are thinking about your hand. i.e. Your hand at the micros has an unknown relative value in many instances so you have to fall back on the absolute value of your hand, i.e. TPTK, overpair,etc. This does mean that you will stack off when you hit the top of villain's range at times but there are certain players that you cannot 3bet effectively because they will 4bet with 33 against hero who has played tight poker at that table for 47 minutes. It gets even wierder because his session stats to that point were 17.65/ 11.76. He was playing Tight and Aggressive, he just was playing that style very poorly.

At the level I play you need to plan to bet 3 streets or be prepared to surrender a hand. Of course this does mean building pots that are a little large but the solution to that is: play very tight when OOP and keep bet sizes relatively small on dry boards, 1/2 pot in flop, 1/2 pot on turn, 1/3 pot on river. Otherwise it is wiser to check/fold which is one of the reasons I don't play small pp's OOP. There is no need to balance my range because they're not thinking about my range, they don't even know what a range is.

Which brings me back to my original point about skewed hand distributions. When OOP I think it is better to bet A high boards than to check. In many instances this will be a bluff but in many others it will be a value bet, i.e. when I am playing my tightest style my opening hands UTG are TT+ AQs+ AKo. In that distribution I will be holding an Ace 52% of the time and when I am playing my loosest my EP range is 88+ AJs+ AQo+ KQs so there I am holding an Ace 41% of the time.

I'm sure at higher levels this doesn't work but as I worked through this reply I think the answer for the micros is: Bet the Ace!

I reraise regs all day long with A on the board when they are raising from early position, i then take note on whether they can give up their pocket or not... by betting he is folding the 70% of hands which you said was in his range and not with an ace. By checking it all the way down most of the time you can call one bet and get to a showdown, if he fires lots of barrels then you can reevaluate, but you also have to look at things like if he hit the set would he have bet that flop? From my experience most 2nl players do not. Another point is what is this persons 3bet percentage? you could eliminate some aces like AK and AQ is he is 3betting these, by betting you are losing value from 70% of hands, and by checking you will lose pots to the 30% of his hands which have hit.. if you check the flop he bets you call and he is holding a smaller pocket he will check it down, if he bets with an ace sometimes he will check it down also, or he will fire again in which you can probably fold. If the player bets the flop checks the turn, this is a perfect place for a smallish bet (kind of blocking kind of value lol) so he will often cold call you with the 30% which hit and also alot of his other hands like lower pockets than yours, maybe a low pair which he picked up along the way etc.
 
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