re: Poker & Skewed Hand Distributions
Originally Posted by HomeBrewer
What Belgo is referring to is WA/WB. Type that into the search bar.
I'm familiar with Way Ahead/ Way Behind. thanks.
btw; what stakes do you play at? I play 2nl/ 5nl. At those levels checking is usually perceived as a sign of weakness. There is a strong push/ pull dynamic at this level, that goes; If I bet you will check or fold but if I check you will bet. Not to say villains won't often check behind but the first bluff they dream up in their heads is the ole' represent the ace bluff.
This is carried even further because so many 2nl/ 5nl players never
think about their opponent's hand so they may bet or raise without any thought to your holding. Here is a perfect example:
Full Tilt - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
Hero (BB): $2.23
posts SB $0.01, Hero
posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero
, SB raises to $0.08
, Hero raises to $0.24
, SB raises to $0.72
Flop: ($1.44, 2 players)
SB bets $0.73 and is all-in
Turn: ($2.90, 2 players)
River: ($2.90, 2 players)
(One Pair, Threes)
(One Pair, Kings)
Since they are not thinking about your cards, you cannot think about what they are thinking about your hand. i.e. Your hand at the micros has an unknown relative value in many instances so you have to fall back on the absolute value of your hand, i.e. TPTK, overpair,etc. This does mean that you will stack off when you hit the top of villain's range at times but there are certain players that you cannot 3bet effectively because they will 4bet with 33 against hero who has played tight poker at that table for 47 minutes. It gets even wierder because his session stats to that point were 17.65/ 11.76. He was playing Tight and Aggressive, he just was playing that style very poorly.
At the level I play you need to plan to bet 3 streets or be prepared to surrender a hand. Of course this does mean building pots that are a little large but the solution to that is: play very tight when OOP and keep bet sizes relatively small on dry boards, 1/2 pot in flop, 1/2 pot on turn, 1/3 pot on river. Otherwise it is wiser to check/fold which is one of the reasons I don't play small pp's OOP. There is no need to balance my range because they're not thinking about my range, they don't even know what a range is.
Which brings me back to my original point about skewed hand distributions. When OOP I think it is better to bet A high boards than to check. In many instances this will be a bluff but in many others it will be a value bet, i.e. when I am playing my tightest style my opening hands UTG are TT+ AQs+ AKo. In that distribution I will be holding an Ace 52% of the time and when I am playing my loosest my EP range is 88+ AJs+ AQo+ KQs so there I am holding an Ace 41% of the time.
I'm sure at higher levels this doesn't work but as I worked through this reply I think the answer for the micros is: Bet the Ace!