Situations like this

Hi guys, I was wondering if there are ever situations when chasing an open ended straight when the odds aren't really in your favor? For example let say at a $2/$4room, you have J T off suit and you are up against 3 guys with no raises just calling action.The flop shows K 9 2 colors all over the place.Lets say the odds are around 5:1. Now I think the odds of hitting the straight is 11:1.

From a statistically standpoint, I should fold quickly.
But when is it a good time to just bet on turn and/or river and hope for the best.
Obviously a raise isn't a good idea. And successfully checking through the turn and river is rather unrealistic.

I always get struck in this type of situations...
So, please suggest me a good strategy to play in situations like this.

Thank you !!!

Am I missing something here?

This looks like a "Gutshot" draw rather than an "Open-ender" as you have postulated.

I'm checking these hands and hoping to hit one of the 4 cards that complete my straight, otherwise, I'm folding to all but the weakest of bets.

We're gutshot, not open ended, how about Q92r (r = rainbow, three diff suits) instead of K92r?

Without pot odds, you chase (call) for implied odds and you bet for fold equity.

For implied odds - will villain(s) pay off sufficiently (i.e., his effective stack) if you hit? With this board, if you start betting big on a K turn, it's unlikely he'll pay you off, since your straight is a little obvious - but if you're sure villain won't let go of his hand... Or, let's say you have Q9 and the flop is JT2r and the turn is an 8 - you're more likely to get paid off cuz your straight is more disguised. Your gutshot may get paid off as well, since villain may discount you calling the flop with a gutshot, but you better get paid off huge cuz your odds of hitting suck.

For fold equity - will villain fold if you bet or raise? That's villain dependent - for example, a thinking tight passive player will fold in a lot of cases to aggression w TPTK type hands, thinking there are better spots to fight for a pot. Don't bluff fish. Note that if you have significant fe, your cards and draw don't matter as much. Multiway, don't count on fe.

Note that you should combine your pot odds, implied odds, and perceived fold equity to come up w your decisions, pot odds don't tell the whole story about the correct play.

P.S. Chasing gutshots multiway, incidentally, is a good way to go broke.

I would say the only way you stay in this hand is if everybody checks. The odds of hitting the card needed are not profitable.

slycbnew said:

We're gutshot, not open ended, how about Q92r (r = rainbow, three diff suits) instead of K92r?

Without pot odds, you chase (call) for implied odds and you bet for fold equity.

For implied odds - will villain(s) pay off sufficiently (i.e., his effective stack) if you hit? With this board, if you start betting big on a K turn, it's unlikely he'll pay you off, since your straight is a little obvious - but if you're sure villain won't let go of his hand... Or, let's say you have Q9 and the flop is JT2r and the turn is an 8 - you're more likely to get paid off cuz your straight is more disguised. Your gutshot may get paid off as well, since villain may discount you calling the flop with a gutshot, but you better get paid off huge cuz your odds of hitting suck.

For fold equity - will villain fold if you bet or raise? That's villain dependent - for example, a thinking tight passive player will fold in a lot of cases to aggression w TPTK type hands, thinking there are better spots to fight for a pot. Don't bluff fish. Note that if you have significant fe, your cards and draw don't matter as much. Multiway, don't count on fe.

Note that you should combine your pot odds, implied odds, and perceived fold equity to come up w your decisions, pot odds don't tell the whole story about the correct play.

P.S. Chasing gutshots multiway, incidentally, is a good way to go broke.

Click to expand...

And.............

There it is. The best answer!

In general, I don't chase gutshots with 3 players- simply because the pot odds are nasty. If I have been portrayng a tight table image I might do it on occasion, because in the event I do hit it- the implied odds are massive and I am more than likely to get paid off big.

Nonetheless, I would typically lead out if I were chasing just to disguise my hand and chase out the stragglers.

In Phil Gordon's book, he has a pretty good section on chasing gutshots and backdoor draws. It's pretty comical, but it's also a good read on when they can be valuable.

Auto fold with the gutshot after a raise. I can't see how you could think differently.