Shoving nut flush draw on the flop

This move seems to be popular. Why?

Chance of making it is 35% so you need 2 callers on average to make it break even, and I don't think fold equity is that great.

What am I missing?

it really depends on what you think will call.

but first, you have some fold equity. people WILL fold to the shove. that alone covers a lot of the calls you get and lose.

then, you often have more than the 9 outs you seem to count. say you have AQs and get called by KK on a J72 flop. Then you already have 12 outs, and this means you have almost 50% equity.

And you may even be better than that. Shoving AKs into JJ on a T72 flop - you are a favorite statistically...

so yes, decent fold equity + more than decent pot equity = not a bad shove at all.

please note that all of the above is only true at slightly higher stakes, say 50nl and above. i would not really recommend you go that way at a 5nl table.

Thank you for the reply.

I don't do that at all but have seen it in hand histories and a few times in my games.

I did push with top pair and nut FD vs. a loose fishy player a few times though but that is a bit better version.

Speaking of this topic.........

Merge - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $4.82
MP+1: $4.91
Hero (LP): $6.17
CO: $1.30
BTN: $3.08
SB: $4.02
BB: $4.29
UTG: $3.96
UTG+1: $4.22

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04, CO posts DB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.08) Hero has A:spade: K:spade:

fold, fold, MP calls $0.04, MP+1 calls $0.04, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.16, MP+1 calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.68, 3 players) T:spade: 8:spade: 7:heart:
MP checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets $0.45, MP raises to $1.63 Hero ??????

In spots like this do you throw away your A K outs and just count spades giving us the roughly 36% equity making it a fold? Or keep em in making us roughly 60% with 2 to come and ship it?

Check behind on the flop imo.

As played I fold, only chasing a flush draw. dont think an ace or king will be enough

But then im a newbie, better wait for one of the elite for better advice.

@themosthigh, you have to give this a call in my opinion, even the draw is not working out the opponent normally has top pair or open end straight draw here, so there are enough outs to be hitten

You can't just call the villains raise there. There are only 2 options fold or ship it.

themosthigh said:

You can't just call the villains raise there. There are only 2 options fold or ship it.

Click to expand...

Why can't we? We're in position so easier to get the money in if we hit. We've been x/r so I doubt we have much FE if we shove. Calling is much better imo

So you call the raise and end up with half your stack in the middle. Turn card misses us and he ships it. Now what?

themosthigh said:

So you call the raise and end up with half your stack in the middle. Turn card misses us and he ships it. Now what?

Click to expand...

Depends on the card that comes, how quickly he shoves and the pot odds. Gives us a chance to fold on the turn if we aren't getting the right price.

We can narrow his hand down considerably more, probably finding out that our A and K aren't good outs.

Sounds like throwing money away calling the raise when you know the shove is coming 99% of the time.

its a fold dude.

themosthigh said:

Sounds like throwing money away calling the raise when you know the shove is coming 99% of the time.

Click to expand...

But you're happy to gii knowing we are behind? Hes probably shipping a set, str or 2 pair, so our AK arent outs. We have 36% for the flush but if he has a set or 2P he has redraw outs so our equity is smaller again. We arent getting any FE here, lets see the turn knowing we can fold if we miss and he shoves, and stack him if we hit.

We have an 18% chance of hitting the turn, so we're paying $1.18 to win $6.58 (inc our stake) assuming we stack him everytime we hit. We're getting 17.9% to call. The more I think about this, the more it could well be a fold. Its really close, either a call or a fold.

Maybe a better player than me will come in and contradict me but I think shoving is throwing money away.

youregoodmate said:

But you're happy to gii knowing we are behind?

Click to expand...

I'm not happy about it, no. Just think its an easier option than calling to fold to the shove if our diamond doesn't come on the turn. Atleast we get to see the river too.

I now see what you're saying bout the call tho. Your counting the implied odds if we stack him on the turn giving us barely the correct price to draw.

As played I folded to the raise in this hand but I want to know what the optimal play is in these spots. Happened 2 more times to me this morning. I flop 4 to the flush in postion after raising pre, cbet to start building the pot and end up getting raised big. We do want to be cbetting our flush draws here to start building a pot correct?

Yeah c betting this every time.

also delayed cbet here is sexy imo.

stops you getting c/r'd of your equity on flops and if people check turns we can double barrel + get there + A high will be good on rivers some of the time.

I kinda hate flatting, not because shoving is easier or anything just that we're calling a lot to hope to hit.. odds wise its probably close but losing 50bbs in a marginal spot hoping to stack like 20% if the time is a waste when we can just find better spots.

Higher stakes than 5nl will be ok, but, below u may have too many callers that are donks. That's what I would depend on.

Continuing the thread since I am the OP after all.

I shoved a K-high FD against 2 opponents today, sadly one of them had a set and I lost.

Still, I now think shoving into 2 people is not too bad since usually nits fold anything below a set and total fish can call with ATC really. Nits don't have sets so often

um, it depends.

it's really about analyzing board texture and assessing villain's range. There are plenty of times to just x/r GII with the nut flush draw and other times to call down.

When board is super drawy and you could conceivably be getting it in good vs. an inferior draw, then stack all day. If you're facing a nit who opened pre and you called with AQs and he bombs a 2-tone K72 board, then consider flatting because it's really likely you have no FE, your overcard is no good but your implied odds are higher because he'll have to pay off with his AK+ hand.

Actually this particular hand a MP player raised, I called with KJs, nit in SB (or BB) called with 44.

Preflop raiser cbet the flop, I shoved, nit called his bottom set (surprise!) and the original raiser folded. Pretty unlucky I think.