Should Lady Luck ever be a factor in your decision making?

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dazzammm

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Hi,

I play with a bunch of guys on regular basis, at first I was winning but ive not had a winning session in the last 12. (i can even pinpoint the point my luck changed - opp flops the nut str8 against my AK and i hit running aces)

There are 2 guys who always seem to get lucky against me and im starting to think whether i should be making decisions based on their good luck and my bad luck or avoid these guys until my "luck" changes?
I would never usually even consider this question but its starting to get to me.
FYI im a tight player but am very tight in these games as these players are in nearly every hands, play any picture cards or suited cards, call bets all the way to the river with 1 overcard or gutshots and they dont care about the money.

For example

vs "andy"
last week he felted me twice after hitting runner-runner 3 times in 30 minutes. (first one i flopped the nut str8 and he hit a king and a 4 for a full house holding K4)

week before he felted me after calling my shove on the turn when i had top 2 with AQ and he hit 2 outer on the river for a bigger 2 pair.

felted me a few week earlier after 3 of us flopped flushes (this is a 6 handed game!)

vs Doug
Felted me a few weeks ago after calling my shove with Q2o and i had 9s to hit a queen on the flop.
week before he hit a str8 on turn when i flopped 2 pair. (far enough, I say)

Im not saying i played every hand perfectly but I just cant seem to win a hand against these 2. I just dont seem to get the hands and when i do they seem to get a bigger hand.

Should i just continue playing my normal game until lady luck has had her fun with me?
 
rodgbaby

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YES YES YES dont stop playing your a game because of these guys. I used to play alot of live poker before i moved here to germany and these guys always get whats comming. NEVER NEVER NEVER think you can out play them u cant beat a calling station unless you got the goods. Just play your agame make good hands and value bet. Any hand your not in just take mental notes. Live is a crazy game cause you can see the 400 to 1000 in your stack go in the middle like that. Against these maniac types POT CONTROL, VALUE BET WHEN YOUR SURE YOUR RIGHT. If he check calls and on the river raises he usually has it. Good luck and hope your downswing turns into a sick heater here soon...


BTW thats a yes to playing your normal game....
 
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dazzammm

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thanks.

Ive stuck to it for a few months and still get sucked out on. my time will come.
I guess someone can see whats happening as one of the players has agreed to stake me just to keep the game going as I cant afford to lose 12 sessions in a row.
 
acky100

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No true such thing as luck in poker in my opinion, you will win and lose your fair share over decent samples and that is a fact. Why you would change your decision because you believe you are receiving more "bad luck" or "good luck" at a given time is pretty illogical!


edit: How many hands have you played in a few months? Of course we all get sucked out on but if you're playing quite regularly and not beating 2nl or something over a couple of months then you probably just aren't as good as you think, you are supposed to get sucked out on and blaming not winning on that is gonna stop you progressing as a player.
 
rodgbaby

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for example say you have AA and you assume he has Ak or something like that and you flop a boat. If all of a sudden he starts betting agg tard on you then stop think about how that hand progressed cause you might be beat to quads. In my time playing live weak players only bet when they are 100 percent sure they have the nuts. so you might get sucked out on your job is if you do make sure you loose the least.
 
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It's sad that no one has pointed out that every hand is an independent event. From a scientific viewpoint, there's no evidence that because an unfortunate sequence of events has happened, the next event is more likely to also be unlucky or lucky.

As from avoiding some people because they've been lucky against you, same argument applies - there's no reason to think you're going to be unlucky against them again (BTW, against Doug, hitting a straight on the turn is not really strange, and I'd say you should have considered the chance that he had it. Also, Q2o vs 99 is 30% vs 70%, so it's not an exceptional event to lose.)

So in conclusion, it's wrong to deviate from what you believe is the best play given the circumstances just because you've been lucky or unlucky on previous hands.

In fact, if you deviate from the correct play because you're not showing a profit the last hands, it's even more likely that you continue being unprofitable.
 
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Arjonius

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One way I think luck should be a factor is that when you've run bad enough so that your attitude changes, which probably means you won't (continue to) play your A game, you should stop.
 
talking2rocks911

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Luck is not a factor if you play in your bankroll!!!!
If you have 20 bucks, don't play for 5$.
Really you shouldn't even be playing anything but .02/.04 with 20 bucks and that's pushing it. Play some freerolls there freakin hundreds.

If you are playing within your bankroll... you couldn't care less when you lose.... one because you only lost 1/100 of your bankroll and more than likely it was on a great hand.... and two it was probably a good decision and got beat by a weaker hand. ex ak vs aq and the queen hits... you call it bad luck i say it just happens... not often but it does... if you make good decisions you will win more than you lose... and grow some patients while your at it... ya know... and over time watch your bankroll grow... over time...
 
Poker Orifice

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cliff notes:
OP plays regular game with friends & keeps losing to a couple of luckboxes who are playing w atc & calling down a massive dogs but hittin' miracles. OP wants to know if he should alter his play because of the major heater these two luckbox donktards are on.

OP gets a series of answers about not beating 2nl & he should play the freerollzz.

wtf?:confused:
 
rodgbaby

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cliff notes:
OP plays regular game with friends & keeps losing to a couple of luckboxes who are playing w atc & calling down a massive dogs but hittin' miracles. OP wants to know if he should alter his play because of the major heater these two luckbox donktards are on.

OP gets a series of answers about not beating 2nl & he should play the freerollzz.

wtf?:confused:


I like this and while some do or dont believe in luck lets face it is out there. Now us as poker players we try to avoid a luck situation by playing odds, and position. However it does exist and it will even out over the long run. Ever notice that your having a huge session then all of a sudden you cant make a hand stand up. We refer to this as variance but it is the same thing as luck. Like i said biggest things pot control dont bloat the pot with top pair hands or even top set hands if u know they will call draws. You cant win every hand in fact this has been the biggest leak of my game. Pot control Stick in good and make sure you dont let them make you play their game cause you cant beat them at it.
 
Cafeman

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Before I sit down to play I always wink 3 times (left eye) and double check I've got my lucky underpants on. Works for me!
 
Poker Orifice

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Before I sit down to play I always wink 3 times (left eye) and double check I've got my lucky underpants on. Works for me!
OMG! I've bee wasting my time then. I've always thought I was luckier while naked. I'm still learning. :(
 
Poker Orifice

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Like i said biggest things pot control dont bloat the pot with ........even top set hands if u know they will call draws.
You might wanna re-consider this ^
 
moemtg

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As stated in prior posts on here... lady luck = no such thing... it is all about variance... Variance, Variance, Variance! Hit 'em up on the felt!
 
Cafeman

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I've always thought I was luckier while naked.
Probably better off saving that for your post session wind down.

Like i said biggest things pot control dont bloat the pot with ........even top set hands if u know they will call draws.
You might wanna re-consider this ^
Well, you can never be too careful. Checking back top set on the turn and looking for a safe river to call a modest bet is the most prudent line vs luckboxes.


OK in all seriousness, it's already been said. As to specific opponents, just bear in mind their tendencies - for example, calling too much with weak hands/draws, just value bet / don't pay off. You just have to accept you're gonna lose pots to random 2 pair from time to time.
 
rodgbaby

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You might wanna re-consider this ^


I say this only if they are drawing out him a ton that means variance is not being nice. Untill things start going his way in these spots pot control. Better to win a little here and a little there than loose alot on a bloated pot. Of course this is only on real draw heavy boards if its dry value town the crap outa them. On a real wet flop you knot they wont fold so why jack the pot up if you know they dont care how much you charge to draw. Hell online even i see myself hitting top set and Bet pot on flop and turn and still get sucked out on from time to time. Part of the game i know but since "lady luck" variance isnt being kind to him at this point. Try to keep pots small untill things start falling the way they should.
 
rodgbaby

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As stated in prior posts on here... lady luck = no such thing... it is all about variance... Variance, Variance, Variance! Hit 'em up on the felt!
I like to think they are the same thing. Lets say pocket AA wins 80 percent of the time and you have shoved all in and won the last 12 times. Now all of a sudden you play5 Pots with them and they cant hold up. Luck = Variance You beat the odds and won about 3 times you should have lost. LUCKY Now the next 5 is just the natural way of things evening out. Variance = UNLUCKY Crazy but math and probability is in everything we do in our life.
 
mrmonkey

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Luck = Variance You beat the odds and won about 3 times you should have lost. LUCKY Now the next 5 is just the natural way of things evening out.

I just want to step in for a second here and make sure others do not share in this (false) logic. This statement is leading towards a common misunderstanding called the Gambler's Fallacy. Every hand you are dealt in poker is a brand new independent event, and even if you've won the last 100 straight AA preflop allins the next time you go allin with AA preflop you are still an 80-20 favorite.

The most common example of this is that of a fair coin toss, in which the odds of it landing heads or tails is 50/50 in every single flip. Even if there is a run of 100 straight heads, the very next flip still has a 50/50 chance of landing either heads or tails.

So basically, do not alter your play based on luck or previous outcomes. If you are certain you have a +EV situation, you need to maximize your advantage every hand regardless of what kind of luck streak you are currently on.

The only other thing I would say is that if you are getting bad beat suspiciously often in live home games... is that you may want to start paying attention to whether something shady might be going on.
 
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