Originally Posted by Skaplun
your thought process is not really where it should be i think. That we are right now a favorite is almost always true (villain could possibly have 33). forget about math and odds for a sec. We are 70% favorite certainly. Who is the villain in the hand, how many hands have you played with him? How does he view you? Could we safely assume that villain folds everytime we cbet this flop? Does he bet against our Weakness? when you dont know villain and stumble around blindly thats when you make standard plays because everyone is the same to you but if you notice who villain is and how he plays thats the only way you can start extracting value
I really dont see where you are going with a statement like that.
You are in position, villian has checked.. if he intends to play back at you then now is the time to do it with a C/R
By checking behind all you do is let a free card come, its never going to make him a higher pair than the board already gives so we cant really think that checking lets him bluff into us on the turn.
He may value bet a pair like 99 on the turn, but as soon as you call he shuts down and if you raise his bet he gives up.
I just dont see what you are trying to say. There really isnt any way to outplay someone by checking this flop because it wont cause them to make huge turn and river mistakes.
That said if you c-bet and he has AK , he may be checking with the intention to CRAI but checking back this flop with top 2 pair on a drawy board is terrible.
EDIT: just to clarify what I am saying. Despite your villain's tendencies etc you still always bet here. The statement is certainly true in general, but in this particular situation we dont really need to consider anything other than we hold top 2 pair, there is a FD and a SD on and villian is unlikely to have anything other than a draw that will continue, but still we bet 100% of te time against 100% of villains in this situation.