Shocking stat I've discovered.

Ok before any of you answer, it would be great if we could keep the criticism constructive, and not just "youre a donk idiot"..

Ive been looking through my startting hand stats on PT3 and ive discovered these startling facts. These 3 hands are my biggest losers by a long long way. This is all at 2NL.

QQ (34 times)
Won - 25 $3.94 (average win 16c)
Lost - 9 -$9.13 (average loss -$1.01)

Net loss $5.19


JJ (42 times)

Won - 37 $4.66 (average around 12c)
Lost - 5 -$9.13 (average loss around 1.86)

Net loss - -$4.49

AK off im breaking even (which is not good)

AKs (18 times)

Won - 11 +$1.96 (average win 17c)
Lost - 7 -$6.56 (average loss 94c)

Net Loss -$4.60


This is terrible, I really have to take a long look at myself, in fact, even though i'm up overall, this is a massive leak in my play, i'm winning so many small hands, but losing big ones...

I'm making more big mistakes than i should be, and i'm obviously over valuing my big pairs...

I'm in very good profit on AA and KK but i need to learn when to put down QQ JJ etc.. most of these big losses on those 2 have come from pre flop shoves... I bet, get raised, then they reraise, and like an idiot, i either think they have AJ or something, or a smaller pocket pair... why do i do that!!!!

It's good that you noticed it, at first I was going to say the sample size was pretty small, but if you know it's the preflop shove that's the leak then you can adjust. Take note if it's always in a raising war situation or just 3bet, maybe you can see a pattern there - on average I'm guessing at small stakes online cash, the opponent isn't going to war with weak holdings. But in tourneys they might.

How big is your sample size at 2nl? I'd imagine that has something to do with it

if your getting it in with JJ, QQ 100+bb's deep then it's a big leak. it's fine to play these hands hard against a LAG for under 100bb's but against someone that rarely raises pre or over 100bb's then you might want to rethink your strategy.

i would review all your HH with JJ, QQ, AK and think of different ways you could have played the hand(s).

Tagging along with Cheaptrix - yes you need to dig deeper. I found this one startling -

JJ (42 times)
Won - 37 $4.66 (average around 12c)
Lost - 5 -$9.13 (average loss around 1.86)

I'd take 37 out of 42 any day but if those other 5 are cement boots dragging you down it's time to look deeper and find out why. Maybe post a couple of those. The obvious answer is getting married to them and hanging on too long or hell it could even be a single hand you flopped a set on, got it all in and got rivered by a flush draw. You won't know till you do the homework.

Sometimes these stats are misleading, especially if sample size is small. By far and away my biggest losing hand is AK. When I first saw that I freaked and thought I must not have clue about playing that hand but when I dug deeper I found out 95% of those red numbers were a single hand I lost heads up at the end stage of a big tourney. Of course we talking cash here so theoretically the numbers should ring truer than tourney.

same as blitz i win AK 80% of the time (over 131 times) but am down 60k avrg
in torneys
lost one hand with it on a final table worth 150k witch definetly squed the results
ps good luck in satelite

Good thing you realized it. I've gotten a lot better at putitng down jacks and queens lately. It's just discipline when yous ee that ace come out and you just want to believe you still have the best of it.

orangepeeleo said:

How big is your sample size at 2nl? I'd imagine that has something to do with it

Click to expand...

Look i understand the sample size is small, but surely you can see that im making many small wins with my wins, and losing massively when i lose.

Its pretty obvious that i'm making big mistakes is all im saying.

Sometimes you guys are obsessed with sample size...do you ever play a tourney, and afterwards say "I didnt play well tonight, made too many mistakes"

Of course you do, you can still play crap in a session and realise it, it doesnt have to be 10 million hands... if I have JJ at .01 .02 and raise to 8c, get 3 bet to 16c, then i 4 bet to 50c, and viallain 5 bet shoves, then if i call, its a bad call surely, whether its 1 hand or not?
I'm getting married to hands when i really should be realising im beat is my main focus here.... where should i put it down, when he initially 3 bets me, should i flat call and peel off a flop, or just fold?

(PS...im not being ungrateful, and of course i realise sample size is important for many many stats.... but i still think its obvious im playing my med-big pairs too aggressively)

stg1969 said:

Look i understand the sample size is small...

Sometimes you guys are obsessed with sample size...do you ever play a tourney, and afterwards say "I didnt play well tonight, made too many mistakes"

Of course you do, you can still play crap in a session and realise it, it doesnt have to be 10 million hands...

Click to expand...

Bravo - well said.


Now how about posting one of those crap losers

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
fupduck69 (CO): $3.76
SerGir723 (BTN): $2.00
78joniboy (SB): $5.07
MaximRND (BB): $1.91
wikked76 (UTG): $7.84
78joniboy posts SB $0.01, MaximRND posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) fupduck69 has Q:heart: Q:spade:
fold, fupduck69 raises to $0.08, SerGir723 calls $0.08, fold, fold
Flop: ($0.19, 2 players) J:club: T:club: 9:diamond:
fupduck69 bets $0.10, SerGir723 raises to $0.22, fupduck69 raises to $0.90, SerGir723 raises to $1.92 and is all-in, fupduck69 calls $1.02
Turn: ($4.03, 2 players) A:heart:
River: ($4.03, 2 players) 3:club:
fupduck69 shows Q:heart: Q:spade: (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 69%, Flop 8%, Turn 3%)
SerGir723 shows K:heart: Q:club: (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 31%, Flop 92%, Turn 97%)
SerGir723 wins $3.89

stg1969 said:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
fupduck69 (CO): $3.76
SerGir723 (BTN): $2.00
78joniboy (SB): $5.07
MaximRND (BB): $1.91
wikked76 (UTG): $7.84
78joniboy posts SB $0.01, MaximRND posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) fupduck69 has Q♥ Q♠
fold, fupduck69 raises to $0.08, SerGir723 calls $0.08, fold, fold
Flop: ($0.19, 2 players) J♣ T♣ 9♦
fupduck69 bets $0.10, SerGir723 raises to $0.22, fupduck69 raises to $0.90, SerGir723 raises to $1.92 and is all-in, fupduck69 calls $1.02
Turn: ($4.03, 2 players) A♥
River: ($4.03, 2 players) 3♣
fupduck69 shows Q♥ Q♠ (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 69%, Flop 8%, Turn 3%)
SerGir723 shows K♥ Q♣ (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 31%, Flop 92%, Turn 97%)
SerGir723 wins $3.89

Click to expand...

Here's the thing - you had a pretty good hand and a pretty good flop - but you played it like the God given nuts. You have to learn pot control and not be so anxious to escalate a betting war with pretty good. The flop brought a possible straight with a flush draw and the response to your monster 3 bet on the flop confirmed it and now you are committed.
Don't be in such a rush to win all you can right now. It's called grinding for a reason.
Look over your other hands and see - were you escalating war before you should have been? Start to take to heart the fact that even AA is ONLY a pair after the flop. Repeat after me - "The flop changes everything."

MediaBLITZ said:

Here's the thing - you had a pretty good hand and a pretty good flop - but you played it like the God given nuts. You have to learn pot control and not be so anxious to escalate a betting war with pretty good. The flop brought a possible straight with a flush draw and the response to your monster 3 bet on the flop confirmed it and now you are committed.
Don't be in such a rush to win all you can right now. It's called grinding for a reason.
Look over your other hands and see - were you escalating war before you should have been? Start to take to heart the fact that even AA is ONLY a pair after the flop. Repeat after me - "The flop changes everything."

Click to expand...

On that hand I'm snap getting it in. Why do you want to pot control with OP+OESD when loads of turn cards suck and we often lose a lot of equity OTT and end up folding the best hand too often. Also any cards that do give us a straight pretty much turn our hand face up if we check/shove turn and just c/c then we can still be outdrawn on the river as well as being OOP on the river.

BlueNowhere said:

On that hand I'm snap getting it in. Why do you want to pot control with OP+OESD when loads of turn cards suck and we often lose a lot of equity OTT and end up folding the best hand too often. Also any cards that do give us a straight pretty much turn our hand face up if we check/shove turn and just c/c then we can still be outdrawn on the river as well as being OOP on the river.

Click to expand...

What I am saying is about the whole thread and concept of his leak - not the one specific hand/ There was some interpolation going on based on what else was being said and was food for thought in looking over his other hands.

QQ is also my biggest loser. Not sure it's a leak so much as that when I lose with it I lose big. Whereas with smaller pps, I'm not likely to being calling ais preflop.

Over a decent sample losing with any pp is a leak. Losing with big pocket pairs is a terrible leak. JJ+/AK should be your top 5 winners.

stg1969 said:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
fupduck69 (CO): $3.76
SerGir723 (BTN): $2.00
78joniboy (SB): $5.07
MaximRND (BB): $1.91
wikked76 (UTG): $7.84
78joniboy posts SB $0.01, MaximRND posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) fupduck69 has Q<font color='red'>♥</font> Q<font color='black'>♠</font>
fold, fupduck69 raises to $0.08, SerGir723 calls $0.08, fold, fold
Flop: ($0.19, 2 players) J<font color='black'>♣</font> T<font color='black'>♣</font> 9<font color='red'>♦</font>
fupduck69 bets $0.10, SerGir723 raises to $0.22, fupduck69 raises to $0.90, SerGir723 raises to $1.92 and is all-in, fupduck69 calls $1.02
Turn: ($4.03, 2 players) A<font color='red'>♥</font>
River: ($4.03, 2 players) 3<font color='black'>♣</font>
fupduck69 shows Q<font color='red'>♥</font> Q<font color='black'>♠</font> (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 69%, Flop 8%, Turn 3%)
SerGir723 shows K<font color='red'>♥</font> Q<font color='black'>♣</font> (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 31%, Flop 92%, Turn 97%)
SerGir723 wins $3.89

Click to expand...

This is why sample size could be the issue, this is a cooler and there's nothing else to say about this hand.

The way to find out if your playing big pairs badly is to post the hands, including some where you won a small amount as well as the losers. You've won 2bis over 25 winning hands with QQ, that's running bad and not getting action imo.

Reason sample is so important is that you can have similar results over 20 or 30k hands (I'm gonna guess and say your total 2nl hands are less than 10k??) and not be doing anything wrong. This game's so annoying because you can always just be running bad lol just post hands in ha imo

Yes youre right, my sample size is 7k hands..

Its frustrating to not be getting action with my big hands, but I darent limp, so have i just been unlucky so far (this is where i would agree sample size is small)... but the big losses over same sample size still tells me they were silly mistakes..

Cheers

You're better served to assume that your results are due to leaks rather than variance over a small sample size.

Also, on the posted hand, why half-pot the flop? The usual reason people give is to encourage weaker hands to call. What they forget to ask is how much difference there is in the opponent's range to call a half pot vs. to call more, say 2/3.

Arjonius said:

You're better served to assume that your results are due to leaks rather than variance over a small sample size.

Also, on the posted hand, why half-pot the flop? The usual reason people give is to encourage weaker hands to call. What they forget to ask is how much difference there is in the opponent's range to call a half pot vs. to call more, say 2/3.

Click to expand...

Youre right, the half pot was a mistake, i shouldnt be value betting such a dangerous board, should have been at least 2/3 if not pot.

Now this was played better, instead of shoving pre flop when i was 3 bet, i called to see the flop...after all, if i shove, he's most likely calling with KK or AA.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
7-Archa-7 (MP): $2.69
fupduck69 (CO): $3.18
45GARPUN45 (BTN): $5.45
Jenia Sobi (SB): $2.13
rizlaGP (BB): $2.95
wikked76 (UTG): $1.98
Jenia Sobi posts SB $0.01, rizlaGP posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) fupduck69 has Q:club: Q:heart:
fold, fold, fupduck69 raises to $0.06, fold, Jenia Sobi raises to $0.20, fold, fupduck69 calls $0.14
Flop: ($0.42, 2 players) 3:spade: Q:spade: T:diamond:
Jenia Sobi bets $0.34, fupduck69 raises to $1.68, Jenia Sobi raises to $1.93 and is all-in, fupduck69 calls $0.25
Turn: ($4.28, 2 players) 4:heart:
River: ($4.28, 2 players) 2:spade:
Jenia Sobi shows K:heart: K:spade: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 82%, Flop 15%, Turn 5%)
fupduck69 shows Q:club: Q:heart: (Three of a Kind, Queens) (Pre 18%, Flop 85%, Turn 95%)
fupduck69 wins $4.13

I don't play 6 max too often, but isn't this a 4 bet/call?

we opened from the CO and were 3 bet by the SB.

also, stats.

If you're losing with JJ+/AK, you're clearly horrible at poker. And just from the looks of it, you're a giant pile of reverse implied odds when you play these hands.

1) Put more money in preflop with these hands.
2) Don't just insta-stack overpairs/TPTK. In a single raised pot, you're not super happy about getting raised on the flop when you've got just a pair.

Arjonius said:

You're better served to assume that your results are due to leaks rather than variance over a small sample size.
.

Click to expand...

ABSOLUTELY!!

stg1969 said:

Now this was played better, instead of shoving pre flop when i was 3 bet, i called to see the flop...after all, if i shove, he's most likely calling with KK or AA.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
7-Archa-7 (MP): $2.69
fupduck69 (CO): $3.18
45GARPUN45 (BTN): $5.45
Jenia Sobi (SB): $2.13
rizlaGP (BB): $2.95
wikked76 (UTG): $1.98
Jenia Sobi posts SB $0.01, rizlaGP posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) fupduck69 has Q♣ Q♥
fold, fold, fupduck69 raises to $0.06, fold, Jenia Sobi raises to $0.20, fold, fupduck69 calls $0.14
Flop: ($0.42, 2 players) 3♠ Q♠ T♦
Jenia Sobi bets $0.34, fupduck69 raises to $1.68, Jenia Sobi raises to $1.93 and is all-in, fupduck69 calls $0.25
Turn: ($4.28, 2 players) 4♥
River: ($4.28, 2 players) 2♠
Jenia Sobi shows K♥ K♠ (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 82%, Flop 15%, Turn 5%)
fupduck69 shows Q♣ Q♥ (Three of a Kind, Queens) (Pre 18%, Flop 85%, Turn 95%)
fupduck69 wins $4.13

Click to expand...

Hate that flop bet sizing, it looks ridic. Also I so prefer 4-betting barring some insane type stats.

stg1969 said:

Now this was played better, instead of shoving pre flop when i was 3 bet, i called to see the flop...after all, if i shove, he's most likely calling with KK or AA.

Click to expand...

So? It looks like you forgot to ask what the rest of his 3-bet range is that he'll fold if you shove. Depending on this, it can still be +EV to shove even if you're well behind his calling range.

And you can also 4-bet here without shoving.