Set mining: Useless 100bb strategy?

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nidal55

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Hi everyone! This is a matter that troubles me a lot. When playing 100bb stacks and facing a 3bet the price were getting is almost the breakeven one plus any decent tag above 16NL will almost always check the turn in position (he knows he never gets paid three bets by worse at this level) so stacking him off is not an option. in addition 2/3 or more of these 3bets are bluffs and except from calling oop with jj or qq which is the common strategy i see no reason calling with 77 for example to set mine. (im talking mostly about oop cause ip versus blinds we can flat with anything decent).
I figured two things: No set mining at 25nl and above and no calling with small pairs ip or oop even in single raised pots waiting for thousands of hands to hit a set and loosing almost every single pot after getting barreled all the time.(About the second one you might say cant you raise as a bluff postflop? have u tried making moves against nitty ep? why play risky and bluff against heros?)
Maybe im wrong but im opening this discussion to get something more. Thnx for your answers!
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

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I fold small pairs against a preflop 3bet most of the time, especially OOP. I try to reserve setmining for cheap opportunities to see the flop and/or against several players. There is usually no good reason to call a 3bet with a small pair heads up or against two opponents unless you are positive of a huge payoff by one of them if you hit.
 
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sillymunchie

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There was a thread up somewhere else, and it showed a guys graph on set mining 100BB
vs 1 opponent if 7BB is in pre then your losing money by set mining
vs 2 you were winning
vs 3 your winning even more

however what your talking about is calling a re raise with a PP, and it all should come down to how much the re raise is, however if your in EP then its common that you cant effectively play your PP
 
edge28

edge28

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See it like this, you hit your set 1 out of 8 times.
You're investing 5 to 6 bb to set mine. If half the time you hit the set you stack him, and when you don't hit the set you loose the pot.
This situation is just breakeven. Also I doubt I can stack you're opponent 1/2 the time you hit the set.
I wouldn't recommend calling 3bet to set mine with at least 130/140bb+
 
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Angavar

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You certainly need to win the pot occasionally without a set if you are calling a 3bet with 100bb. This is why it's generally not profitable out of position, but may be in position - depending on how good your read is on villain.
 
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Henreiman

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I'd say this is pretty typically accepted as true. Obviously your reads are going to be dependent on the opponent, but playing small pairs OOP profitably is tough. The profit margin (as in any situation) comes when you know your opponent is highly exploitable in a certain situation post-flop.
 
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GWU73

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Playing small pocket pairs 100 bb deep is very profitable. The two glaring problems I see with your question are calling large bets/3bets pre-flop, and playing passively on the flop when you hit your set. You may also want to re-evaluate your thinking about three bets usually being made light, and how you react to them when they are.

Players will gladly stack off with their over pairs and top pair hands if you have given them a reason to believe you do not always have the nuts when you ship it. Many will auto ship over pairs and top pair, even at higher levels. Tight players in particular love to get in with AA and KK on the flop. With this in mind, set mining can be profitable in most games if the price you pay is generally small in relation to the stacks. Most of the time you are looking for very good implied odds - not just because you want to win a stack, but because many times you will only win 1/4 of a stack or you will lose to a better hand than your set. Most skilled players use guidelines of 2-5% of effective stacks as the maximum you should risk with speculative hands. If you have multilple opponents you can loosen that requirement because there is more money in the pot pre flop and more people to pay you off if you hit. Cold calling 6-7 bb pre flop with a small pp is a losing proposition. Calling 3bets with these hands is even worse; the pot will be so large that your opponent will almost always be getting the right price to get all in on the flop with their good hands and they will often check/fold missed high cards. Your small pair loses in both scenarios at 100 bb stack sizes.

One of the biggest leaks casual players have is playing strong hands weak for fear of chasing off strong, but 2nd best hands. Very rarely is it a good idea to slow play you strong hands. The same player that c-bets 2/3 pot on the flop then checks the turn will often call large bets and check raises on the flop, then fold the turn. Sometimes they re-raise all in on the flop. If you think a player is sneaky you can really use bet sizing to wreck them, but usually just playing aggressively works best.

As far as 3betting usually being light, it just is not true. Some players will 3bet alot, and then maybe your hand is good enough to 4bet with, but in general, even their weak hands often have substantial equity against a small pocket pair. Calling the 3bet with a small pp is just never a good option at 100bb deep. Not only are you likely losing badly or slightly ahead, but they have the lead on the flop and will win with a bet very often.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Yes set mining is pretty bad OOP unless you can balance your game so it is not super obvious that you are sitting on a set and probably not even then.

In position it is different since you can sometimes float flops that are obviously good for your perceived range.

I make sure to mute players who can't fold overpairs regardless of board and action (for example, a guy gets checkraised on a connected unicolor board, calls that and calls turn shove with KK). These are absolutely best players for set mining since they always pay. Usually they are nits who raise like 3-5% of hands and get married to their QQ+.

On the other hand, players who pretty much always fold to a checkraise/big raise on a small board (good TAGs) are good for the other reason - they won't pay easily but you can bluff them enough to compensate (not too often, all of them take notes on you and WILL look you up eventually). You will often need a decent-sized turn bet to convince them though so be very sure they are in fact the type.
 
dgiharris

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There was a thread up somewhere else, and it showed a guys graph on set mining 100BB
vs 1 opponent if 7BB is in pre then your losing money by set mining
vs 2 you were winning
vs 3 your winning even more

however what your talking about is calling a re raise with a PP, and it all should come down to how much the re raise is, however if your in EP then its common that you cant effectively play your PP

Yeah, that was me, here are those graph that should be germaine to this discussion. Since a 3-bet effectively would often be around 12bb - 15bb, you can look at the 50bb graphs as indicative of calling a 3-bet at 100bb deep (if that makes any sense). So basically, if you are looking at calling a 3-bet 100bb deep you need to be up against 3+ villains for it to be profitable, otherwise, you need to fold...


~~~ cut/paste ~~~~

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I did two series of models, one where effective stacks are 100bb deep and one where effective stacks are 50bb deep so you can see how your chip stack actually impacts whether or not setmining is profitable. I also used a preflop raise of 7bb which is more standard for live 1/2nl games where raises are usually around $15

SMF100bbEquity1_zpsb6dfdf25.jpg


SMF100bbEquity2_zps109136ab.jpg


SMF100bbEquity3_zps4ed5a413.jpg


SMFEquity3_zpscc1362c6.jpg


SMFEquity4_zps3f0020f1.jpg


this should give you an idea on profitability and give you a better perspective of just what set mining is and what is required...

NOTE: on some of the charts on the bottom, I make the mistake of saying 3bb when it should say 7bb


**********************
 
LuckyChippy

LuckyChippy

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I like the graphs, they really do give an impression of how, why and when set mining is effective. Although you make a lot of assumptions and a 7bb raise isn't relevant to online play it's still pretty cool.
 
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