Can set mining REALLY show long-term profit and is it worth the effort?

D

Deceitful_Frank

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Recently I have begun to wonder if set mining is really all it's cracked up to be.

I used to love it. I would limp in with any PP and just pray for a raise! I would even call if effective stacks were barely 6 times the price to see the flop. I could hit the set and take his whole stack... YAY! THIS TIME COULD BE IT!

Then I learned the actual odds against me making the set and I adjusted accordingy... because if I hit he was GUARANTEED to fight me in vain all the way to the river!

My thinking evolved further and I gave myself extra headroom because the vast majority of times, He wouldn't hit hard enough to bother battling me after the flop. Effective stacks now had to be 15 times the price to call. Even this wasn't enough though. I was STILL losing longterm with low PPs!

My next step was realizing that VASTLY more money is made when you opened with a raise and I stopped open-limping. At this point I am not often set mining any more but profitability is improving. I can C-bet with 55 after the flop and take it down a reasonable portion of times and I get a big pot every now and then when I make the set AND he hits top pair. Rarely do I make that magical 32bb though!

As I slowly began to see just how powerful position can be and quite recently, I stopped calling and set mining from the blinds. A look through a decent PT3 sample revealed the enormous quantity of cash I was throwing away. Even when I am mulitway with a set in the blinds, the burden of being first to act negates any implied odds. Obviously if I get a good price to call and there are three others to the flop its an easy call!

This brings me to my final two questions concerning set mining... Calling with good effective stack sizes IP and calling a 3bet from an opponent with a strong range when both IP and OOP.

I think the best scenario is when I raise with my 44 in mid-late position and get re-raised by a tight positionally aware player with a low (<3%) PF3bet and a deep stack in the blinds. I can be reasonably sure that he is gonna give me action after the flop that 1 in 8.5 times I hit the set.
There are a lot of "ifs" though aren't there!?

I guess second best would be a 3bet from the same guy in LP when I am OOP. I can probably pull off a succussful check raise when I make the set. I doubt it will pay for all the times I miss though!

Lastly there is the straight flat call with position. I don't like this though as wouldn't he need to be a highly positionally aware uber-nit to make the cal worth while? the 7/8 times that I missed the set I could consider floating his C-bet and see if he has the balls to fire a second barrel on the turn. If he does and the turn card looks like a card I myself would double barrel I could hit him with a large turn raise but this could be risky and expensive!

So much to think about. I am starting to think that I would be better off saving the brain energy and letting the set mining IP go completely (cutting it out like I did when OOP in the blinds) unless I am massively multiway.

What do you chaps think? Can calling a raise or a 3-bet from an opponent with a strong range both IP and OOP to set mine be really worth the effort longterm?

Thoughts and ideas welcome as always!

Frank.
 
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G

Gutshot22

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Calling 3 bets too much is a major leak in a lot players games. Don't call a 3 bet to set mine.

Calling in position with a pocket pair isn't terrible as you'll have position and can play some poker.
 
Weregoat

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I really like set-mining, however I never took the time to learn the math behind it. Generally at live games I don't have too much trouble getting paid when I hit my set, but I have an uncommon playstyle. I won't set-mine against short stacks, but I will sometimes call their raise with the intent to bluff them out on a flop. Multiway pots have set-mining all over them, because the more players to a flop, the more likely they are that someone other than you catches a piece.
 
slycbnew

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You're on the right path. Without implied odds, setmining isn't profitable. Some situations give you good implied odds, seek those out (position, float + setmining opportunities, you've seen villain stack off w overpairs before, tight villain range, etc), but otherwise...
 
NineLions

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Ya, setmining in a 3 bet pot rarely gives you the required implied odds regardless of the opponent's stats or situation. You've pointed out some situations where it's slightly better, but unless you're playing at a deep table or otherwise with deep stacks it's unlikely that you get the 20-1 implied odds that you should be looking for.


One other thing to point out is that you also should to be able to win unimproved sometimes when you flat with small/medium pocket pairs. You talk about open raising and then c-betting to win, similarly sometimes you should be able to win by raising c-bets on dry boards or by calling the flop/betting the turn on boards that hit your calling range harder than your opponent's preflop raising range.
 
eberetta1

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I have seen so many people lose sets to higher sets that it is not worth my effort. But I play low stakes also. So many times there are straights and flushes that stop me from wanting to really do some heavy firing. Much less worry about someone having a higher set than my sets of 2's thru 7's.
 
slycbnew

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The odds of a flopped set over set are 99:1. Worrying about getting oversetted isn't a good idea, it happens, but it's rare.
 
fletchdad

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I like your post. It will definitely make me be careful if I find myself on a table with you, since you seem to be doing some serious thinking about your play.
I have been there as well, what to do with the PPs. I kind of have a set way of dealing with them now. I pretty much do a 50/50 call/raise if I am first to act, and if not then position, bet size and bettor will dictate what my play is. With, say 22-44 utg I am pretty much tossing them, but it is situational.

btw, I play almost only tournaments. and just saw this is a cash game question... so not sure how good my answer is for you.....
 
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never_run_bad

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Recently I have begun to wonder if set mining is really all it's cracked up to be.

I used to love it. I would limp in with any PP and just pray for a raise! I would even call if effective stacks were barely 6 times the price to see the flop. I could hit the set and take his whole stack... YAY! THIS TIME COULD BE IT!

Then I learned the actual odds against me making the set and I adjusted accordingy... because if I hit he was GUARANTEED to fight me in vain all the way to the river!

My thinking evolved further and I gave myself extra headroom because the vast majority of times, He wouldn't hit hard enough to bother battling me after the flop. Effective stacks now had to be 15 times the price to call. Even this wasn't enough though. I was STILL losing longterm with low PPs!

My next step was realizing that VASTLY more money is made when you opened with a raise and I stopped open-limping. At this point I am not often set mining any more but profitability is improving. I can C-bet with 55 after the flop and take it down a reasonable portion of times and I get a big pot every now and then when I make the set AND he hits top pair. Rarely do I make that magical 32bb though!

As I slowly began to see just how powerful position can be and quite recently, I stopped calling and set mining from the blinds. A look through a decent PT3 sample revealed the enormous quantity of cash I was throwing away. Even when I am mulitway with a set in the blinds, the burden of being first to act negates any implied odds. Obviously if I get a good price to call and there are three others to the flop its an easy call!

This brings me to my final two questions concerning set mining... Calling with good effective stack sizes IP and calling a 3bet from an opponent with a strong range when both IP and OOP.

I think the best scenario is when I raise with my 44 in mid-late position and get re-raised by a tight positionally aware player with a low (<3%) PF3bet and a deep stack in the blinds. I can be reasonably sure that he is gonna give me action after the flop that 1 in 8.5 times I hit the set.
There are a lot of "ifs" though aren't there!?

I guess second best would be a 3bet from the same guy in LP when I am OOP. I can probably pull off a succussful check raise when I make the set. I doubt it will pay for all the times I miss though!

Lastly there is the straight flat call with position. I don't like this though as wouldn't he need to be a highly positionally aware uber-nit to make the cal worth while? the 7/8 times that I missed the set I could consider floating his C-bet and see if he has the balls to fire a second barrel on the turn. If he does and the turn card looks like a card I myself would double barrel I could hit him with a large turn raise but this could be risky and expensive!

So much to think about. I am starting to think that I would be better off saving the brain energy and letting the set mining IP go completely (cutting it out like I did when OOP in the blinds) unless I am massively multiway.

What do you chaps think? Can calling a raise or a 3-bet from an opponent with a strong range both IP and OOP to set mine be really worth the effort longterm?

Thoughts and ideas welcome as always!

Frank.

Set mining is easy.
You use the 5/10 rule that says: If your opponent open-raise for 5%-10% of the effective stacks and if he is a fish that will pay you off for all his stack, then you call. If on the other hand he’s betting 13%-14% of the effective stacks you cannot profitably call on set mining.
If effective stacks are $1,000 and opponent bets $60 and even if you know 100% he’s got AA and you’ve got 22 you call if you’re sure he will get broke on his aces. If he open-raise for $140 you dump everything.
 
W

WillySmackYoAss

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Usually I like calling a raise with a pocket pair to flop a set/bluff if I sense weakness. Unfortunately I don't really play online and most of my poker is a cash game home game and there isn't much 3 betting unless someones holding a big hand preflop. I am trying to incorporate some more 3 betting into my game and feel doing this with small pocket pairs could make them profitable hands for me.

I always always always call this one guy in the game because he is weak/tight. If he raises preflop its with a big pair and if I got any pocket pair I'm calling since 100% of the time I know his cards since he never ever bluffs. If I hit that set there is no chance in hell that his chips aren't going in the middle. So I think if you know your opponent playing small pocket pairs can be profitable if you can win the hand without flopping a set or if you know you're guaranteed to win your opponents whole stack if you flop the set given the right implied odds.
 
D

Deceitful_Frank

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Set mining is easy.
You use the 5/10 rule that says: If your opponent open-raise for 5%-10% of the effective stacks and if he is a fish that will pay you off for all his stack, then you call. If on the other hand he’s betting 13%-14% of the effective stacks you cannot profitably call on set mining.
If effective stacks are $1,000 and opponent bets $60 and even if you know 100% he’s got AA and you’ve got 22 you call if you’re sure he will get broke on his aces. If he open-raise for $140 you dump everything.

WOW!

You made it all so simple. Thanks man I will definately give this a go!
 
Bryan436

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I'm interested in trying out setmining, but I get wayy too bored and end up playing hands that i know i should fold =[
 
D

Deceitful_Frank

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IMO you should just save yourself $300 if you are starting out and skip the set mining. Atleast calling raises OOP. NEVER open-limp! This took me 10 months to learn. JUST DON'T DO IT unless you are an advanced player.

Stick to just raising your small pocket pairs for now, You get 2 ways to win the pot.

Once you can comfortably put your opponents on ranges you can consider calling raises but you need to realise that unless you can be sure of post-flop action (he's holding something decent) or you KNOW he will stack off with top or middle pair, you are NEVER going to make enough the 2 in 17 times you hit the set to ensure longterm profit.

Keep it simple for now and raise 'em up!
 
Weregoat

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Set mining is easy.
You use the 5/10 rule that says: If your opponent open-raise for 5%-10% of the effective stacks and if he is a fish that will pay you off for all his stack, then you call. If on the other hand he’s betting 13%-14% of the effective stacks you cannot profitably call on set mining.
If effective stacks are $1,000 and opponent bets $60 and even if you know 100% he’s got AA and you’ve got 22 you call if you’re sure he will get broke on his aces. If he open-raise for $140 you dump everything.

If I'm 100% my villain holds pocket aces I'm calling any two cards that don't include an A for 6% of effective stack sizes.
 
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