Set Mining - May Analysis

SeaRun

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I love set mining with pocket pairs. It's one of your best opportunities to win some decent pots without it being too obvious, especially on a dry board.

I've studied it, how to play them when they do hit, read other player's stories and advice, etc.

So, in my review I did of all hands in May I looked to see how I did with sets. I kind of liked what I saw, except for some stupid play.

In May, I played 17,900 hands of $5 NL FR. Out of that total (which I understand isn't the greatest sample size, but it's what I'm working with), I hit a set or better by the River 59 times. Now, take into account in 20 of those hands I flopped a set and in a total of 26 of those hands made a set or better by the River winning 40 bbs or higher with the 2 highest being over 160 bbs.

I lost 7 hands with a set or better and a value higher than 40 bbs with the 3 highest being just over 100 bbs. One of those 3 big ones, I flopped 2nd set and villain flopped top, another I lost to a bigger FH and a 3rd I probably had no business being in the pot after the flop. Absolute bad play on my part and the hand is posted below for comments.

So without going back and counting how many times I was dealt PPs, do these numbers seem to make sense? (And did I explain them right?)

Looking at the above, and taking away the hands like the one below where I had a brain fart, I think so. I know this analysis has probably been done ad nauseum, but it's good just to look at my own numbers.

In this hand, my first mistake (maybe) was not 3-betting pre-flop. If there was just 1 player ahead of me I would have, but in this case, 3 players, one fairly TAG and a good player, 1 loose I only had 7 hands on and another average but only 46 hands on. I wasn't sure what was the best way to go. How would you play it? 2nd mistake, a glaring one, was 4 betting the flop to a board like that. Looking back now, I should be shot for doing that, but it's a lesson learned.

Thoughts?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 117.2 BB (VPIP: 18.15, PFR: 1.42, 3Bet Preflop: 0.50, Hands: 569)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.25, PFR: 12.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.58, Hands: 378)
BTN: 14.4 BB (VPIP: 85.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB: 191 BB (VPIP: 28.26, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (BB): 119.6 BB
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.64, PFR: 8.53, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 218)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:club: J:diamond:

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) J:spade: 9:spade: K:club:
SB bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 32.6 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 77.2 BB, Hero raises to 116.6 BB and is all-in, SB calls 39.4 BB

Turn: (245.2 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:

River: (245.2 BB, 2 players) A:club:

SB shows K:spade: 5:spade: (Flush, King High) (Pre 32%, Flop 30%, Turn 80%)
Hero shows J:club: J:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 68%, Flop 70%, Turn 20%)
SB wins 235 BB
 
micromachine

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No way is 4betting that flop a mistake! I'm getting it in every time there.

The only hands that beat you are KK (in which case you dead pretty much but that would've prob 3bet pre), and QT which is also fairly unlikely as SBs stats look OK and I doubt he flat QT pre OOP. And anyway you have decent equity against QT with 7 outs for a boat or quads.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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we are not set mining w/ JJ, squeeze pre for the love of God

BTN's 14bb fish, SB is a fish, CO is a reg but isn't capable of 4betting anything less than QQ+/AK so squeeze/fold is the nuts here and you should probably be doing it w/ 99+/AJ here

and getting it in on a super wet board vs a fish w/ a set is not a mistake, just because you lost doesn't make it bad.

post is fine, pre is losing a ****load of equity
 
RodneyC86

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we are not set mining w/ JJ, squeeze pre for the love of God

BTN's 14bb fish, SB is a fish, CO is a reg but isn't capable of 4betting anything less than QQ+/AK so squeeze/fold is the nuts here and you should probably be doing it w/ 99+/AJ here

and getting it in on a super wet board vs a fish w/ a set is not a mistake, just because you lost doesn't make it bad.

post is fine, pre is losing a ****load of equity

This
Now JJ doesn't really qualify as a squeeze hand for a nit like me but under the circumstances that 9k found in the hand, this is exactly the spot you want to squeeze in.
 
SeaRun

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OK, thanks for the advice. It's nice to be told you're wrong in a case like this, he he.

@ OMG, I know you guys are at a whole different level of poker than where I am, but 3-betting with 99+/AJ behind a raise and 2 callers is totally foreign to me.

While I understand player attributes will affect decisions greatly, are there many situations where you wouldn't do that, given the hands you mentioned?? As an example, I rarely raise from E or MP with AJ, am I being way too tight?
 
SeaRun

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OK, here's one. What should I have done here?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
MP+2: 69.2 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 10)
CO: 110.2 BB (VPIP: 10.70, PFR: 7.61, 3Bet Preflop: 0.94, Hands: 359)
BTN: 135.6 BB (VPIP: 14.93, PFR: 12.44, 3Bet Preflop: 1.43, Hands: 203)
Hero (SB): 100.4 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 66)
UTG+1: 114.4 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 18)
MP: 157.8 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:club: J:spade:

fold, fold, MP raises to 2.6 BB, MP+1 calls 2.6 BB, fold, CO calls 2.6 BB, BTN raises to 13.6 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 98.8 BB, Hero ?!?!?!?!?!?!
 
RodneyC86

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OK, thanks for the advice. It's nice to be told you're wrong in a case like this, he he.

@ OMG, I know you guys are at a whole different level of poker than where I am, but 3-betting with 99+/AJ behind a raise and 2 callers is totally foreign to me.

While I understand player attributes will affect decisions greatly, are there many situations where you wouldn't do that, given the hands you mentioned?? As an example, I rarely raise from E or MP with AJ, am I being way too tight?

You see, essentially you are raising with JJ here is to not having to see a flop versus the reg out of position and without initiative. Calling will leave you with an over card on the flop well over half the time and you could put yourself in a tricky spot.

Now a reg opening from CO will have a range with a significant amount of hands that can't withstand a 3 bet. He ought to fold all of his steal range which is probably huge and especially so if you have not been crazy 3bets.

On the other hand, the fish SB And the super shortstack are showing to be extremely fishy and will have many worse hands that will call regardless. The fact that they didn't reraise is a good sign they have a mediocre hand that your JJ should always be ahead of, even if slightly only.
 
RodneyC86

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OK, here's one. What should I have done here?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
MP+2: 69.2 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 10)
CO: 110.2 BB (VPIP: 10.70, PFR: 7.61, 3Bet Preflop: 0.94, Hands: 359)
BTN: 135.6 BB (VPIP: 14.93, PFR: 12.44, 3Bet Preflop: 1.43, Hands: 203)
Hero (SB): 100.4 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 66)
UTG+1: 114.4 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 18)
MP: 157.8 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J<font color='black'>♣</font> J<font color='black'>♠</font>

fold, fold, MP raises to 2.6 BB, MP+1 calls 2.6 BB, fold, CO calls 2.6 BB, BTN raises to 13.6 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 98.8 BB, Hero ?!?!?!?!?!?!

I would not have 4 bet there, it is VERY doubtful a 5NL player squeezes light from the button. And he seem to not be crazy on the 3 bet at all.

I'd flat the 3bet if I think I can setmine with JJ profitably here. MP seem like a LAG and less likely to have a hand that can 4bet back. Hopefully an avalanche of loose calls and your essentially becomes the nut set mining pair among the five.



Or you know, fold pre. I think it's not a huge mistake.
 
SeaRun

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I would not have 4 bet there, it is VERY doubtful a 5NL player squeezes light from the button. And he seem to not be crazy on the 3 bet at all.

I'd flat the 3bet if I think I can setmine with JJ profitably here. MP seem like a LAG and less likely to have a hand that can 4bet back. Hopefully an avalanche of loose calls and your essentially becomes the nut set mining pair among the five.



Or you know, fold pre. I think it's not a huge mistake.

So you're saying he's a higher lvl player playing down for some reason?

Today must be Jack day. 682 hands and I've had 'em 8 times, and once I flopped a set

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 97.2 BB (VPIP: 12.28, PFR: 11.40, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 116)
Hero (CO): 113.8 BB
BTN: 121 BB (VPIP: 37.84, PFR: 2.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
SB: 113.2 BB (VPIP: 16.30, PFR: 12.69, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 138)
BB: 159.8 BB (VPIP: 9.59, PFR: 9.59, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 75)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.29, PFR: 13.26, 3Bet Preflop: 2.15, Hands: 267)
UTG+1: 167.6 BB (VPIP: 13.94, PFR: 11.00, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 417)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:spade: J:heart:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 6 BB

Flop: (21.4 BB, 2 players) 2:heart: 6:spade: J:diamond:
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 12 BB, UTG+1 calls 12 BB

Turn: (45.4 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 10 BB, UTG+1 calls 10 BB

River: (65.4 BB, 2 players) J:club:
UTG+1 bets 24 BB, Hero raises to 48 BB, fold

Hero wins 108.6 BB
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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stop playing FR if you want to enjoy poker ever again/improve

6max spots and FR spots differ greatly; e.g. JJ isn't a good hand preflop anymore because everyone has KK+ when they stack off.. mainly because: BTN: 135.6 BB (VPIP: 14.93, PFR: 12.44, 3Bet Preflop: 1.43, Hands: 203)

guy has a 3b of 1, folding KK here might not even be that bad haha.

also that river min raise is awful, please stop doing that :)
 
duggs

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9k summed up the first JJ hand.

2nd 1, fold pre>>>call pre>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>4bet/fold>>>>>>>4bet/call
 
duggs

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3rd, call pre, as played much bigger on turn, as played jam river.
 
SeaRun

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stop playing FR if you want to enjoy poker ever again/improve

I look at the hands of some of the successful 6-max players here and I can't help but think how aggressive it is. Look above where I commented on 3 betting with less than monsters. I guess it wouldn't hurt to try.

also that river min raise is awful, please stop doing that :)

On the hand with the set of Js, he tanked on the turn bet. Didn't know if he was just playing slow or what. Thought that might be my best chance to get some more out of him. Normally, my min raise is 2/3 - 3/4 pot size

EDIT:

3rd, call pre, as played much bigger on turn, as played jam river.


Thanks Duggs
 
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SeaRun

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Another one, and again Js (hand du jour)

Once I hit the FH on the Turn, I intentionally bet small trying to show weakness. However, the River scared the beejeezuz out of me and I was glad he checked. If he had bet anything substantial, I probably would have folded.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 16.86, PFR: 12.94, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 256)
MP: 56.8 BB (VPIP: 19.49, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 238)
CO: 55.8 BB (VPIP: 18.82, PFR: 14.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 294)
Hero (BTN): 104.4 BB
SB: 47.8 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
BB: 14.2 BB (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
UTG: 118.8 BB (VPIP: 12.97, PFR: 11.89, 3Bet Preflop: 5.36, Hands: 185)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:diamond: J:heart:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 4 BB

Flop: (15.4 BB, 2 players) 9:heart: J:spade: Q:heart:
UTG+1 bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, UTG+1 calls 20 BB

Turn: (75.4 BB, 2 players) 9:club:
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 17 BB, UTG+1 calls 17 BB

River: (109.4 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

UTG+1 shows A:heart: T:heart: (Two Pair, Queens and Nines) (Pre 32%, Flop 40%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows J:diamond: J:heart: (Full House, Jacks full of Queens) (Pre 68%, Flop 60%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 104.8 BB
 
duggs

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bigger pre and bigger turn bet, i flat pre tho fwiw
 
IPlay

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The last two hands, why do you bet so tiny on turns with your sets?

10bb into a 45.4bb pot on one hand

17bb into a 75.4bb pot

In both of these hands your turn bet is smaller than your flop bet, why?
 
SeaRun

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The last two hands, why do you bet so tiny on turns with your sets?>>>>SNIP

An attempt to show weakness.

The villain in the last hand, I had seen him fold to larger bets on dry boards but CR on weak bets
 
RodneyC86

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An attempt to show weakness.

The villain in the last hand, I had seen him fold to larger bets on dry boards but CR on weak bets

Or you know, you could just bet normal on a more regular seemingly lag basis and look ambiguously weak and get paid off when you hit.

Slowplay sucks unless you cold deck something very hard (nut full house or quads)
 
RodneyC86

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So you're saying he's a higher lvl player playing down for some reason?

Today must be Jack day. 682 hands and I've had 'em 8 times, and once I flopped a set

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 97.2 BB (VPIP: 12.28, PFR: 11.40, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 116)
Hero (CO): 113.8 BB
BTN: 121 BB (VPIP: 37.84, PFR: 2.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
SB: 113.2 BB (VPIP: 16.30, PFR: 12.69, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 138)
BB: 159.8 BB (VPIP: 9.59, PFR: 9.59, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 75)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.29, PFR: 13.26, 3Bet Preflop: 2.15, Hands: 267)
UTG+1: 167.6 BB (VPIP: 13.94, PFR: 11.00, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 417)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J<font color='black'>♠</font> J<font color='red'>♥</font>

fold, UTG+1 raises to 4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 6 BB

Flop: (21.4 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='red'>♥</font> 6<font color='black'>♠</font> J<font color='red'>♦</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 12 BB, UTG+1 calls 12 BB

Turn: (45.4 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♥</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 10 BB, UTG+1 calls 10 BB

River: (65.4 BB, 2 players) J<font color='black'>♣</font>
UTG+1 bets 24 BB, Hero raises to 48 BB, fold

Hero wins 108.6 BB


Or maybe his tightAss 3bet range tells you you're almost never ahead and are essentially 4bet bluffing? If you're gonna do that, JJ is one of the worst hands to 4bet bluff. Try Arag suited but do we wanna try to fold a guy with QQ+ 3b range?

This JJ, bet turn larger, shove river would be standard advice but I can see why you would do this if you are pretty certain guy has no full house to stack off with. But then again, on this board and given your hand, he either has complete bull shit or has a full house. Trips is not possible.

So go all in, he doesn't have many hands worse than a full house that would call a minraise but won't call a shove.
 
RodneyC86

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Another one, and again Js (hand du jour)

Once I hit the FH on the Turn, I intentionally bet small trying to show weakness. However, the River scared the beejeezuz out of me and I was glad he checked. If he had bet anything substantial, I probably would have folded.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 16.86, PFR: 12.94, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 256)
MP: 56.8 BB (VPIP: 19.49, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 238)
CO: 55.8 BB (VPIP: 18.82, PFR: 14.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 294)
Hero (BTN): 104.4 BB
SB: 47.8 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
BB: 14.2 BB (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
UTG: 118.8 BB (VPIP: 12.97, PFR: 11.89, 3Bet Preflop: 5.36, Hands: 185)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J<font color='red'>♦</font> J<font color='red'>♥</font>

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 4 BB

Flop: (15.4 BB, 2 players) 9<font color='red'>♥</font> J<font color='black'>♠</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font>
UTG+1 bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, UTG+1 calls 20 BB

Turn: (75.4 BB, 2 players) 9<font color='black'>♣</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 17 BB, UTG+1 calls 17 BB

River: (109.4 BB, 2 players) Q<font color='black'>♣</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

UTG+1 shows A<font color='red'>♥</font> T<font color='red'>♥</font> (Two Pair, Queens and Nines) (Pre 32%, Flop 40%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows J<font color='red'>♦</font> J<font color='red'>♥</font> (Full House, Jacks full of Queens) (Pre 68%, Flop 60%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 104.8 BB

We 3bet JJ vs a UTG+1 open? Probably not the best thing in the world IMO in FR. I would flat in position and play poker.

Flop fairly well done, but I think there might be room for a slightly larger raise, just slightly.

Again, bet turn larger. As played, river is a good check back.

Shouldn't Slowplay turn that much, you want to make second best hands and draws to pay you better. That's what poker is all about, get it money ahead and putting in money yourself is the best way barring special circumstance with lagtard fish.

Bet at least 60 pct I think. Strings along the straight draw, made straights and AQ as well as a quarter pot bet, but gets you 2.5 times more money when called.
 
IPlay

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An attempt to show weakness.

The villain in the last hand, I had seen him fold to larger bets on dry boards but CR on weak bets

That is just suspiciously weak though, but I guess you had the reads. I think that even with your read of him raising weak bets, you can still almost double the bet sizing there and it would still be puny. Any turn bet under half pot is considered puny tbh This betting lets your villains get cheap showdowns and does not force them to make tough decisions so in turn it probably makes you easy to play against.
 
micromachine

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An attempt to show weakness.

The villain in the last hand, I had seen him fold to larger bets on dry boards but CR on weak bets

As others said, no need to slowplay/feign weakness at the micros. It'll really hurt your winrate if you're not getting maximum value from your big hands. I hardly ever bet less than 1/2 pot, if you keep your sizing between 60 and 80% mostly and use this sizing for your thin value hands, your fat value hands and your bluffs then your sizing doesn't give much away and you'll get so much more value from your big hands.
 
duggs

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fundamental leak of population is calling too much, punish it by betting bigger
 
SeaRun

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Thank you to everyone. Consistent advice here, I appreciate it.
 
SeaRun

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Two questions.

1 - Say I'm in position and I flop a set on a dry board. Villain bets into me for pot. Turn is a brick or improves my hand, and he bets into me again, 1/2 pot to pot size. Should I raise on either of these or just chase to the River where I'll intend on shoving over him?

2 - In the situation below, I don't want to see any more cards with that many hands so I shoved to isolate as many as possible. Right move?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.73, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 393)
UTG: 98.6 BB
UTG+1: 111.6 BB (VPIP: 14.65, PFR: 9.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.59, Hands: 602)
MP: 78.4 BB (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 27.06, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 86)
MP+1: 123.6 BB (VPIP: 18.49, PFR: 14.85, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 362)
Hero (MP+2): 105.2 BB
CO: 78.6 BB (VPIP: 58.33, PFR: 41.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BTN: 146.8 BB (VPIP: 11.36, PFR: 9.66, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 177)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 10.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 76)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7:club: 7:diamond:

UTG raises to 3.4 BB, UTG+1 calls 3.4 BB, MP calls 3.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.4 BB

Flop: (20.4 BB, 6 players) T:heart: A:heart: 7:spade:
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets 15.6 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 101.8 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG calls 79.6 BB and is all-in
 
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