Set Mining - May Analysis
I love set mining with pocket pairs. It's one of your best opportunities to win some decent pots without it being too obvious, especially on a dry board.
I've studied it, how to play them when they do hit, read other player's stories and advice, etc.
So, in my review I did of all hands in May I looked to see how I did with sets. I kind of liked what I saw, except for some stupid play.
In May, I played 17,900 hands of $5 NL FR. Out of that total (which I understand isn't the greatest sample size, but it's what I'm working with), I hit a set or better by the River 59 times. Now, take into account in 20 of those hands I flopped a set and in a total of 26 of those hands made a set or better by the River winning 40 bbs or higher with the 2 highest being over 160 bbs.
I lost 7 hands with a set or better and a value higher than 40 bbs with the 3 highest being just over 100 bbs. One of those 3 big ones, I flopped 2nd set and villain flopped top, another I lost to a bigger FH and a 3rd I probably had no business being in the pot after the flop. Absolute bad play on my part and the hand is posted below for comments.
So without going back and counting how many times I was dealt PPs, do these numbers seem to make sense? (And did I explain them right?)
Looking at the above, and taking away the hands like the one below where I had a brain fart, I think so. I know this analysis has probably been done ad nauseum, but it's good just to look at my own numbers.
In this hand, my first mistake (maybe) was not 3-betting pre-flop. If there was just 1 player ahead of me I would have, but in this case, 3 players, one fairly TAG and a good player, 1 loose I only had 7 hands on and another average but only 46 hands on. I wasn't sure what was the best way to go. How would you play it? 2nd mistake, a glaring one, was 4 betting the flop to a board like that. Looking back now, I should be shot for doing that, but it's a lesson learned.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 117.2 BB (VPIP: 18.15, PFR: 1.42, 3Bet Preflop: 0.50, Hands: 569)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.25, PFR: 12.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.58, Hands: 378)
BTN: 14.4 BB (VPIP: 85.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB: 191 BB
(VPIP: 28.26, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (BB): 119.6 BB
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.64, PFR: 8.53, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 218)
posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero
posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero
, CO raises to 3 BB
, BTN calls 3 BB, SB
calls 2.6 BB, Hero
calls 2 BB
Flop: (12 BB, 4 players)
SB bets 7 BB
, Hero raises to 32.6 BB
, SB raises to 77.2 BB
, Hero raises to 116.6 BB and is all-in
calls 39.4 BB
Turn: (245.2 BB, 2 players)
River: (245.2 BB, 2 players)
(Flush, King High) (Pre 32%, Flop 30%, Turn 80%)
(Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 68%, Flop 70%, Turn 20%)
wins 235 BB