RoyalFish
Rock Star
Silver Level
Oooookay. So I read Icemonkey9's "So you want to be a WINNING cash game player" post, and frankly, I'm getting my azz handed to me trying to play pairs now. Help me out with the math here.
Ok. I have a pp. Nothing special like AA or KK, just a medium pocket pair. Let's say there's a raiser before, I call, the blinds fold, so we have a 7.5 BB pot that I paid 3 BB to see. If nothing else happens and I get to keep it, 40% of the time, I break even, but most of the time that won't happen. If I miss and the bad guy bets, I should let it go. I will miss the flop 88% of the time, losing 3BB. To break even, I need to get 3BB/0.12, or 25 BB on average for this to be a break even play. I'll get exact numbers later, but it's safe to say tonight I'm not getting anywhere near 25 BB on average the times I hit. More often they seem to be missing, because they just fold to a bet, or in one awful case, they had a drawing hand that got there, and I was the one proving implied odds work.
Ok, case in point. Just played 55, calling a 4BB PFR. Flopped a set. It went rather well but for a dangerous turn making a straight possible, but the board paired on the river so I was safe from all but better boats. Net win, 22 BB. This was undoubtedly one of the more profitable of the night. If that's so, this is not a profitable play, in spite of what everything I've read tells me.
Is this a quirk of microlimits (5 and 10nl), or am I missing something? The video referenced in the post talks about people stacking off with TPTK or an overpair (I think), but I'm not getting people stacking off at all. Either I bet conservatively enough to keep them in the hand, in which case I'm not getting correct implied odds to make this a winning play, or I bet enough to build a large enough pot to make it worthwhile, and nobody wants to come along. Tell ya the truth, I'm looking around the tables and I'm seeing stats that in my admittedly non-Poker God eyes, don't suck. 15/14. 11/8. 15/5. Ok, the 27/6 guy is interesting, but MOST of these guys aren't trading stacks with me for a pair.
I'm definitely a math geek, so that's the kind of spin I'm looking for on this. Not just "this is the right thing to do", but this is the right thing to do because 12% of the time you hit your set, n% of the time you get all someone's chips, x% of the time you get this fraction of 'em, etc.
RF
Ok. I have a pp. Nothing special like AA or KK, just a medium pocket pair. Let's say there's a raiser before, I call, the blinds fold, so we have a 7.5 BB pot that I paid 3 BB to see. If nothing else happens and I get to keep it, 40% of the time, I break even, but most of the time that won't happen. If I miss and the bad guy bets, I should let it go. I will miss the flop 88% of the time, losing 3BB. To break even, I need to get 3BB/0.12, or 25 BB on average for this to be a break even play. I'll get exact numbers later, but it's safe to say tonight I'm not getting anywhere near 25 BB on average the times I hit. More often they seem to be missing, because they just fold to a bet, or in one awful case, they had a drawing hand that got there, and I was the one proving implied odds work.
Ok, case in point. Just played 55, calling a 4BB PFR. Flopped a set. It went rather well but for a dangerous turn making a straight possible, but the board paired on the river so I was safe from all but better boats. Net win, 22 BB. This was undoubtedly one of the more profitable of the night. If that's so, this is not a profitable play, in spite of what everything I've read tells me.
Is this a quirk of microlimits (5 and 10nl), or am I missing something? The video referenced in the post talks about people stacking off with TPTK or an overpair (I think), but I'm not getting people stacking off at all. Either I bet conservatively enough to keep them in the hand, in which case I'm not getting correct implied odds to make this a winning play, or I bet enough to build a large enough pot to make it worthwhile, and nobody wants to come along. Tell ya the truth, I'm looking around the tables and I'm seeing stats that in my admittedly non-Poker God eyes, don't suck. 15/14. 11/8. 15/5. Ok, the 27/6 guy is interesting, but MOST of these guys aren't trading stacks with me for a pair.
I'm definitely a math geek, so that's the kind of spin I'm looking for on this. Not just "this is the right thing to do", but this is the right thing to do because 12% of the time you hit your set, n% of the time you get all someone's chips, x% of the time you get this fraction of 'em, etc.
RF