Satellite Tournament Play: When shut down & fold to victory?
Okay, so we all know how satellites work. 400 enter, 20 players get prizes that are equal for all, and rest get nothing. Thus, we're not trying to accumulate chips. Survival is the only thing that matters.
So, at what M level do we start trying to fold our way into the winnings? Yes, I know it all depends, however, are there some general guidelines on this sort of thing?
I'll give you an example. Recently I was in a tournament where I was in 19th place, with an M level of 11. 20 players got paid, there were 25 players left. Thus, I think I'm pretty much in, since the next closest stack has an M level of 7.
Thus, I start up the fold-o-matic, I wait a few rounds, and my M quickly drops to 6-7, and there are 2 players left to be eliminated, and I'm in 20th place. The short stack who is UTG and has an M of 1.4 or so goes all in, and doubles up, giving him an M of roughly 4.
At this point, I start to worry a bit, but he hits the blinds before I do, and my stack is still bigger. Also the table is fairly loose, so I avoid playing since they'll probably call and I'll be racing for my tournament life. I fold TT in MP with 1 limper, ect.
The table orbits a time or two the short stack (M of 3) goes all in again UTG. He doubles up again! Now he has an M of ~8, and I'm at an M level of roughly 5! Crap crap crap.
So the blinds hit me, and I go card dead for an orbit. All of the short stacks that I was counting on to bust out didn't. I'm in 22nd place with 22 left, and I bubble out when I lose a coinflip.
Where should I stop folding? Is this just dumb luck that the short stacks won so many races? Is there some guideline I can use to avoid bubbling out again?