Running bad or running normal?

n3rv

n3rv

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Total posts
955
Chips
0
So last night playing my regular micro speed tables I hit a set on the flop. Villain raises me about half of the pot and I'm convinced he has top pair top kicker. There is a potential flush draw on board as well so I re-raise him etc. till eventually all of the chips are in.

I have a set of 9s with 70% equity against his pair of Kings and a flush draw at 30% - of course the flush makes it. No biggie, it has to make it some of the time, I reload.

About 5 hands later I get AKs all-in against TT, flop comes AKJ so I think my luck is restored... before the river makes a straight. I try to not let this have an effect on me as it is a coin-flip but 2 buy-ins down I tilt a bit and eventually force myself to quit 3 buy-ins down.

So today, as I was getting tilty last night, I moved down significantly lower to 0.01 / 0.02 buying in for £0.60-£0.80 in order to get confidence in my game back.

First table I get a full house 8s over Qs against a donk who keeps betting and of course he has quads. I didn't even go all-in just in case but that was the majority of my stack gone. On another table I get KK all-in against AA and bust another stack.

I'm not concerned with losing the buy-ins as they are so low but I am concerned with my play being able to overcome this kind of variance and be profitable in the long term. The thing is on the 2 hands this morning I had very little equity but I'm not sure there was any other way I could've played them, same with the hands where I had a coin flip and 70% - I could just as easily have been dominated there if you really think about it.

I mean, if this sort of thing isn't running bad, can I afford to start folding the likes of KK, Full Houses, Big Slick, or Sets at these sorts of levels?

Sorry for the rant, thanks in advance for any help.
 
R

RamdeeBen

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 9, 2010
Total posts
7,745
Chips
0
You don't need to move down in stakes just because you lose two hands if you are using some sort of BR management. Buying in as a short stack is pointless to, this won't get your confidence back all you do is lose EV. Why would you want to gain your confidence back if you feel you're making the correct plays?

What you're describing isn't exactly running bad either tbh..I mean you have lost 5 buy-ins? You should be prepared to lose many more than that given variance is high in poker. If you're concerned about how you are playing hands overall though and not just talking about coolers or being out drawn, then post the hands on the forum and get some feedback.

I'm talking about spots you might not even think about (maybe calling pre flop to loose with marginal hands, calling a flops to wide etc etc) which probably effect your overall winrate.

Folding KK, fullhouses, AK or sets isn't going to be winning poker though especially at micros.
 
akaRobbo

akaRobbo

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 8, 2014
Total posts
656
Chips
0
Why did AKs v TT cause you to tilt so much? TT is the favorite pre-flop. Tilting then caused you to lose your third BI, after that, you were so affected by everything that you moved into 2NL?? Tilting is the main problem here, not bad luck. Fair enough you got a bit unlucky at times but that happens, other times you will be the lucky one. If you feel like you're not playing your best TAKE A BREAK.

Good luck mate.
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Total posts
2,635
Chips
0
You don't need to move down in stakes just because you lose two hands if you are using some sort of BR management. Buying in as a short stack is pointless to, this won't get your confidence back all you do is lose EV. Why would you want to gain your confidence back if you feel you're making the correct plays?

This.


OP, post hands in the hand analysis section for feedback. Getting coolered or sucked out on doesn't mean you played the hand well. Sometimes tough losses are unavoidable, but at least they present an opportunity to improve.
 
blueskies

blueskies

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Total posts
3,643
Awards
9
Chips
304
So last night playing my regular micro speed tables I hit a set on the flop. Villain raises me about half of the pot and I'm convinced he has top pair top kicker. There is a potential flush draw on board as well so I re-raise him etc. till eventually all of the chips are in.

I have a set of 9s with 70% equity against his pair of Kings and a flush draw at 30% - of course the flush makes it. No biggie, it has to make it some of the time, I reload.

About 5 hands later I get AKs all-in against TT, flop comes AKJ so I think my luck is restored... before the river makes a straight. I try to not let this have an effect on me as it is a coin-flip but 2 buy-ins down I tilt a bit and eventually force myself to quit 3 buy-ins down.

So today, as I was getting tilty last night, I moved down significantly lower to 0.01 / 0.02 buying in for £0.60-£0.80 in order to get confidence in my game back.

First table I get a full house 8s over Qs against a donk who keeps betting and of course he has quads. I didn't even go all-in just in case but that was the majority of my stack gone. On another table I get KK all-in against AA and bust another stack.

I'm not concerned with losing the buy-ins as they are so low but I am concerned with my play being able to overcome this kind of variance and be profitable in the long term. The thing is on the 2 hands this morning I had very little equity but I'm not sure there was any other way I could've played them, same with the hands where I had a coin flip and 70% - I could just as easily have been dominated there if you really think about it.

I mean, if this sort of thing isn't running bad, can I afford to start folding the likes of KK, Full Houses, Big Slick, or Sets at these sorts of levels?

Sorry for the rant, thanks in advance for any help.

Sometimes you won't be able to win no matter what. That's just the way it is.

I've had days where I lose 6 or 7 all ins where I am at least 2:1 fav when the stacks go in. (Usually 75%+) I.e. sets lose to runner runner strs, TPTK lose to two pairs when villain's inferior kicker pairs on the river, etc.
(I only single table and play no more than 200 or 300 a day max, usually much less, so those kinds streaks are fairly "unlucky." Less than 1% prob of losing ALL those showdowns.)

If those are the only types of hands you lose, then you should be a winner overall. People who don't fold will have days when they can't lose. If you run into them during these times, you will be destroyed no matter what, but hopefully the next time luck will be different.

The problem rises when those hands cause you to tilt. So monitor yourself and quit when you start to feel indignant or angry.
 
Y

Yadoula

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 14, 2014
Total posts
33
Chips
0
im a good steady winner, £50 an hr for 3 years, and I can still have downswings that last 50,000 hands.
 
n3rv

n3rv

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Total posts
955
Chips
0
Apologies guys, this thread should really be in the "Beats" or "Learning Poker" section as much as the "Strategy" one.

Sometimes you won't be able to win no matter what. That's just the way it is.

I've had days where I lose 6 or 7 all ins where I am at least 2:1 fav when the stacks go in. (Usually 75%+) I.e. sets lose to runner runner strs, TPTK lose to two pairs when villain's inferior kicker pairs on the river, etc.
(I only single table and play no more than 200 or 300 a day max, usually much less, so those kinds streaks are fairly "unlucky." Less than 1% prob of losing ALL those showdowns.)

If those are the only types of hands you lose, then you should be a winner overall. People who don't fold will have days when they can't lose. If you run into them during these times, you will be destroyed no matter what, but hopefully the next time luck will be different.

The problem rises when those hands cause you to tilt. So monitor yourself and quit when you start to feel indignant or angry.

Thanks, I have significantly reduced my tilt - I don't mind losing hands I have played badly... the problem I am having is that the days you have mentioned, when you do get the stack in with a good play and lose more than you win... that is just normal variance for me and has been for a while - I don't have faith that even 100 buy-ins can overcome it.

For example, today again these are the times I had my full stack in:

Hero vs Villain - Flop - % - Win/Lose
AK vs AT -7AKr- 98% - W
KK vs AJo -25Jr- 78% - L
QQ vs KK -PF- 19% - L
AA vs 7h6h -84ThAh- 70% - L

I am consistently losing 3/4 of my stacks when I go all-in regardless if the equity is in my favour or if the play is good or if the HUD stats are as tight as possible.

I just doubt that the variance will eventually switch in my favour enough even if I continue to get it in 70%+ 3/4 of the times but I will test it for 100 stacks and see.

im a good steady winner, £50 an hr for 3 years, and I can still have downswings that last 50,000 hands.

Hi Yadoula, thanks for the perspective.
 
Last edited:
Top