River Folds

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billatx

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I was looking for that question ,but i found nothing that answers it at the web.

Who can help me to get an idea?

Given the fact that opponent makes a normal 3BBs open raise and then 3/4 pot bets,how often should i be folding the RIVER BET when i've got a borderline holding assuming that he is almost never bluffing?
 
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MrEncryptor

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If this opponent rarely bluffs and he regularly bets 3/4, he sounds like a solid player. If this is the case, my best recommendation for a borderline hand would be:

1) always make sure you've got position on him
2) if the turn didn't improve your hand, consider folding in the face of a bet

I think it would be costly to go to the river with this kind of player.

It's also important to be the aggressor, not the caller -- either you bet, fold, or raise, you should rarely call.
 
micromachine

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That's quite a general question. How borderline are we talking here?

It will depend on a whole host of factors including how loose/tight he is, his table position, his perception of you and board texture.
 
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billatx

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KEEP IT SIMPLE.
When having taken all factors into consideration ,the hand has gone to the river and you are 50-50 about calling the river bet.

How much ''sure'' do you have to be that you are loosing, to fold.That's what i'm asking.

Or how much ''sure'' do you have to be that you are winning to call?

How often should you call at those situations?
 
micromachine

micromachine

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Poker isn't simple!! So general questions often can't be answered.

I could say - you have to be over 51% "sure" that you are winning to call because then you will make money in the long run - but that doesn't really help does it?
 
Cafeman

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The equation is:-

amtcall/(amtpot + amtcall)

So let's say the pot is $10, and our opponent bets $5. That's $5 for us to call (amtcall) to win a $20 pot (amtpot + amtcall).

In the above scenario using the equation, we have to be good AT LEAST 25% of the time to make that call break even. Put another way, if we believe that we are good > 25% of the time, we should at least call.

How we arrive at thinking our hand is good >25% of the time is the tough part. That involves hand reading, opponent specific reads/tells, a crystal ball, etc.
 
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billatx

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The equation is:-

amtcall/(amtpot + amtcall)

So let's say the pot is $10, and our opponent bets $5. That's $5 for us to call (amtcall) to win a $20 pot (amtpot + amtcall).

In the above scenario using the equation, we have to be good AT LEAST 25% of the time to make that call break even. Put another way, if we believe that we are good > 25% of the time, we should at least call.

How we arrive at thinking our hand is good >25% of the time is the tough part. That involves hand reading, opponent specific reads/tells, a crystal ball, etc.
A normal sized bet would be rather 8 than 5 .So our hand has to be good 30% of the time.
Adding that people at small stakes,where i play almost never bluff river,let's suppose they bluff 10% of the time,so we are good only 10 % of the time ,supposing they wouldn't bet a worse TPTK kind of hand,what i extract is that i should never call when i'm not sure that i win.
Right?
 
Cafeman

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let's suppose they bluff 10% of the time,so we are good only 10 % of the time
This assumes that the times they value bet, we can never beat them? They only value bet the stone cold nuts?

However, if our read is that they bluff the river 10% of the time and all we have is a 'bluff catcher' (say 3rd pair), then folding would be best yes.

I think if you could give an example of a hand (along with stakes/reads/etc.) it would help with the conversation.
 
Arjonius

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The pot odds math is straightforward, but that's not the only relevant factor. Another is the opponent. What's marginal vs one person can be a pretty easy fold against another, and a fairly easy call against a third because they have different styles and ranges.
 
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