re: Poker & River bets: 1 in 5 is all you need to make more money.
Originally Posted by Emperor IX
What do you think about a 2/3 pot bet? It's what I would probably do, but I want some other insight, seeing as it's stronger than a minbet and probably not a bluff..
How often do you get called with that bet? 1/3 of the time?
Your expected value
would be $6(.66) + $14(.33) = $8.56 That is better than the two that I showed previously. This just goes to show that these little bets are losing the average person money because of fear of the no calls.
Here is where I am at so far with my experiment. I am running at 27% calling so far for the pot size bets. $6(.73) + $18(.27) = $9.24
I don't know the percentages of callers on the pot size bet till I get a couple thousand hands under my belt at this level. I just wanted to show that you could be losing money by not betting more on the river than these little "please, you have to call this" bets.
The other trick is you are putting more pressure on your opponent the larger you bet is. This can push out hands that are equal or maybe even slightly better than your, thus you get called less. You will also maximize the mistakes of the players who do call you when you have them beat.