The right pot odds for a flip coin situation

yraikel · Jul 18, 2009

We already know that pot odds should larger than the draw odds. But how about in a flip coin situation? Example: Suited Ace King vs. pocket 8. There is $30 in the pot and the pocket 8 makes a $250 raise pre-flop. Should you call with your cards? Assume you know you are facing a smaller pocket pair. The odds are very close to 50% but what about the pot odds? We know that in order to make that call you should have at least 2:1 in the pot so there should be a minimum of $500 in the pot (but there is only $130 now)

The flip side of this thought is simple: In a coin flip situation (ignoring the 48% vs. 52% details.. to me this is a 50% shot,) if the pot has any money there (even $10 for the sake of the argument) – you should make the call. In other words – if you invest $100 with a 50% chance to win -and return a $110 plus your investment when you do win, run this a thousand times you will be making a great investment. However, a $110 in the pot asking for a $100 call does not suffice for our 2:1 pot odds.

What am I missing here? I appreciate your thoughts

slgalt · Jul 18, 2009

Your question is totally confusing. If there's 30 in the pot and a guy bets 250 pre, then there is 280 in the pot. And 2:1 is 33% not 50%. Also, do you mean cash or tourney. Cash game, implied odds are more important, and maybe what you are getting at.

Here's a useful article:
http://uk.pokernews.com/poker-strategy-theory/texas-holdem/pot-odds-basics.htm

spunka · Jul 18, 2009

30$ in the pot + raise 250 = 280$ you have to pay 250 to win 530 this is under 50% so if you consider this and equal flip 50/50 you should call.

However PP is around 55/45 favorit so this is a very close decision.

after that come the EV calcs this is what will happends on future streets also reffered to as implied odds, now things really starts to get tricky

(you also win your own money, as when you put your money in the pot, it's not yours anymore)

ziggymom · Jul 18, 2009

yraikel said:
We already know that pot odds should larger than the draw odds. But how about in a flip coin situation? Example: Suited Ace King vs. pocket 8. There is $30 in the pot and the pocket 8 makes a $250 raise pre-flop. Should you call with your cards? Assume you know you are facing a smaller pocket pair. The odds are very close to 50% but what about the pot odds? We know that in order to make that call you should have at least 2:1 in the pot so there should be a minimum of $500 in the pot (but there is only $130 now)

The flip side of this thought is simple: In a coin flip situation (ignoring the 48% vs. 52% details.. to me this is a 50% shot,) if the pot has any money there (even $10 for the sake of the argument) – you should make the call. In other words – if you invest $100 with a 50% chance to win -and return a $110 plus your investment when you do win, run this a thousand times you will be making a great investment. However, a $110 in the pot asking for a $100 call does not suffice for our 2:1 pot odds.

What am I missing here? I appreciate your thoughts

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yraikel · Jul 18, 2009

Thanks a lot for the responses! I appreciate the welcome ziggymom and sorry for the lack of introduction.

slgalt, the article is great - thank you. You are correct as 2:1 is 33% and not 50% and that was the source of my confusion. To clarify: I had AJs in a 5,10 NL holdem. I raised in position pre flop to $30 and was re-raised to $130. At that point it was heads up. Baed on his prior play I figured he had a smaller pp (and was right - 99) and threw my hand. The pot was 168 (with blinds) and would give me 1.68 pot odds. Because I figured it is about 50% chance I wanted to see a minimum of 200 in the pot to make that call. Obviously I was wrong because win odds of a coin flip (I now understand) is actually 1:1 and not 2:1.

However, this also implies that pre flop you should always call any bet in heads up when you get approx 50% shot (or in this case about 47%) because you will always get enough pot odds (even if just the blinds are there prior to the raise) - and that still doesn't make sense to me. It may be the right choice mathematically but it is obviously a gambler move no?

MainEventOrBust · Jul 19, 2009

yraikel said:
Example: Suited Ace King vs. pocket 8. There is $30 in the pot and the pocket 8 makes a $250 raise pre-flop. Should you call with your cards? Assume you know you are facing a smaller pocket pair.
What am I missing here? I appreciate your thoughts

He is shoving preflop and you are assuming he has a small pair?

He could have you slaughtered with AA or KK, or you could have his AQs totally dominated. Or you could both have AK.

In a cash-game, I instacall here, since AA and KK are usually going to put in a smaller raise for value, instead of shoving. In a tourney, I might pass on the bet if we are early on and blinds are low, since I'll likely play with this maniac for a couple of hours, and probably find a much better spot to felt him.

Infamous1020 · Jul 19, 2009

MainEventOrBust said:
He is shoving preflop and you are assuming he has a small pair?

He could have you slaughtered with AA or KK, or you could have his AQs totally dominated. Or you could both have AK.

In a cash-game, I instacall here, since AA and KK are usually going to put in a smaller raise for value, instead of shoving. In a tourney, I might pass on the bet if we are early on and blinds are low, since I'll likely play with this maniac for a couple of hours, and probably find a much better spot to felt him.

AK also has blockers to AA and KK

TinaPete · Jul 19, 2009

Hello, Depending on the game , my stack and the player would I make the choice to call or not , because aces dont always show.. thats just my style...Good luck at the tables ...Tina

Makwa · Jul 19, 2009

You got some good replies OP, but you will get better if you post questions in the appropriate forums. This one should go under Strategy, mebbe a mod will put it there.

cardplayer52 · Jul 19, 2009

you only need 1:1 odds or better for a coin flip. so do you call $250 my answer no. you shove your stack back at them. if you get called your still 50%(using your eg 50% not 47%) to win the pot. 1:1. but there will be a % of time the 88 will fold. of that % of time you win 100%. this is how you win a coin flip. its called fold equity.

Tammy · Jul 19, 2009

Welcome to Cardschat. Gonna move this to Strategy so you can get more feedback.

widowmaker89 · Jul 19, 2009

A word of advice, and dont take this the wrong way, do not play 5/10 cash games, you will get crushed. Comming here is a good start, read up on some bankroll management articles and strategy and hand analysis posts and you will learn a lot.

Mase31683 · Jul 19, 2009

??? Who's the villain playing with 13bb in a 5/10.....

dresturn2 · Jul 28, 2009

lmfao.....well.......if he showed u ace king and u could afford to lose the money then its entirely up to u.......if i had the money i would do it lol

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The right pot odds for a flip coin situation

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