Results without seeing flop

LD1977

LD1977

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Connected to this thread: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/cash-game-issue-would-like-loosen-221851/

I have been looking into my stats and found that for the most part I play postflop relatively profitably but when I don't see flop I am shedding almost 10 bb/100 (!!!) and it is eating my winrate. This is easily noticable if I am card dead - things go to crap amazing quickly and I end up losing heavily.

SB = -42,62 bb/100
BB = -76,92 bb/100
EP = 1.18 bb/100
MP = 2.71 bb/100
CO = 4.94 bb/100
BTN = 6.63 bb/100

Total = -9.54 bb/100 (!!!)

I have 2 questions for people who play 2NL with decent profit (around 10+ bb/100):

1. What are your total results when you don't see flop?
2. Winrates by position compared to mine (= where am I leaking the most)?
 
LD1977

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I managed to get this down to around -7 bb/100 and it seems it can't go much lower for now. Oh well, 3 bb/100 is not bad in just a few days of work.
 
Blobweird123

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Can you explain how to get this value in PT4?
 
WVHillbilly

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I managed to get this down to around -7 bb/100 and it seems it can't go much lower for now. Oh well, 3 bb/100 is not bad in just a few days of work.
Your blind play is atrocious. These numbers:
SB = -42,62 bb/100
BB = -76,92 bb/100

should be about 1/2 what they are from each position ( something in the -25 and -40 range respectively).

What sort of sample are these numbers derived from?
 
LD1977

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I am using HEM2 but the logic should be the same.

I used filter "Did not see flop" and nothing else.

It shows pre flop results which are basically:
- losses when I folded the blinds or folded to 3bets etc.
- wins when I raised and everyone folded + wins when I had BB and everyone folded to me

WVHillbilly - My unfiltered positional numbers are: SB = -15,74 bb/100 and BB = -50,31 bb/100
 
WVHillbilly

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Your blind play is atrocious. These numbers:
SB = -42,62 bb/100
BB = -76,92 bb/100

should be about 1/2 what they are from each position ( something in the -25 and -40 range respectively).

What sort of sample are these numbers derived from?
Forget this. Forgot these were your numbers for when you didn't see a flop. Ignore the above.
 
LD1977

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Seems my BB is pretty weak according to your numbers, but SB owns :D

Sample size is 87k hands.
 
WVHillbilly

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Ok I did the same filter and my blind win (loss) rates when I did NOT see a flop are still a lot less than yours. Mine were -54bb/100 (BB) and -27bb/100 (SB). Work on your blind play.
 
WVHillbilly

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Well since your sample size is decent post your stats (pre and post) for the blinds.
 
LD1977

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Yeah, even since I started readjusting (1.4., meaning like 4 days ago :D) my blinds are horrible.

I mainly focused on stealing more blinds from late positions (therefore playing IP post flop) since I am not really confident in my ability to play well post flop from the blinds if I try 3betting from them and still see the flop with inflated pot :( looks like recipe for total disaster.

After I stabilize my new play style I am going to start looking for the next biggest leak I have... likely exactly pre flop play in the blinds.

I edited the numbers in post #5, now you can see unfiltered stats.
 
Blobweird123

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Well since your sample size is decent post your stats (pre and post) for the blinds.

Do you happen to know how to do this precisely in PT4? Can't see anything resembling "Did not see flop"
 
LD1977

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In HEM2 it is under "More filters" and not default filters. I am sure it has to be possible to make various reports in PT4 too.

Edit: The filter is called "Saw flop" and the choices are Any, Yes, No
 
WVHillbilly

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Do you happen to know how to do this precisely in PT4? Can't see anything resembling "Did not see flop"
I use PT3. In that you go into filters, Misc, Situations. Check Saw Flop and then select NOT.
 
Blobweird123

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I use PT3. In that you go into filters, Misc, Situations. Check Saw Flop and then select NOT.

Blah I guess PT4 doesn't wanna make it easy. Only option is in the Opportunites section if I click on Flop, there is an option "Saw Flop" I leave it checked to "Off" and try to add filter but it shows that there is no filter to be applied. Only thing I can find is if I folded preflop. I would like to see my stats with folding pre and getting folds pre. Gonna take this over to the PT4 thread.
 
WVHillbilly

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Blah I guess PT4 doesn't wanna make it easy. Only option is in the Opportunites section if I click on Flop, there is an option "Saw Flop" I leave it checked to "Off" and try to add filter but it shows that there is no filter to be applied. Only thing I can find is if I folded preflop. I would like to see my stats with folding pre and getting folds pre. Gonna take this over to the PT4 thread.
Check the Saw Flop Option, add it, and then highlight it and select Not.
 
LD1977

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Positional stats

These are my positional stats:

Total stats:

Total positional stats


Since April 1st:

Since April 1st

I know the stats are very nitty and passive but that is mostly influenced by my attempts to add more tables - unfortunately I was less than successful for quite a while :D

These days I can play up to 10 tables pretty decently as far as speed and concentration goes (except when I take notes during play, it gets a bit hectic) but I am still leaky :rolleyes: I increased the pre flop aggression somewhat but plan to gradually get it up more.

I know results still seem pretty shitty but I am running 5,5 BI under EV since starting on a new approach April 1st (that is karmic "reward" for working on my game I suppose :D). With this included my win rate is around 7 bb/100 while playing 5-10 tables, which is a MASSIVE increase compared to previous negative win rate when trying that.

As you can see I am racking up the volume too :cool:
 
WVHillbilly

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That vpip/pfr gap for someone playing as tight as you are should be no more than 2%. If you're open limping, stop. If you're limping along, stop. Open for a raise. Isolate limpers. Your tight range is crushing theirs. The only calls you should be making are with small/medium pairs against strong ranges to set mine.

You don't show your cbet stats but cbet often.

Drop tables. I know you think you can play 10 tables easily but you can't. You need to do a lot of work on the most basic parts of your game before you should even consider adding tables. I'd say 6 as a max. Use your free time to take notes and study just how horrible your opponents are. Note the lines they take. Figure out how to best exploit them.

I also don't know what your standard open size is but with your tight game I'd open for 4x everywhere. There is more there even just preflop (3betting more, opening up more in LP, being more aggro postflop since you're going to have the best hand so often) but the basics above should make a huge difference.

You don't need to try to do everything at once, just take one aspect and do it until you're comfortable and then work on the next thing. Do things to MAKE yourself do these things (ie try to play an entire session only raising or folding, never calling). Falling back on old habits (and with as many hands as you've played badly, you're bound to have some bad habits) is easy. DON'T look at short-term results. Figuring out how your winrate looks since April 1st is meaningless. Just ignore the results for a while (I assume your BR is sufficient to to this btw) and concentrate on the changes. You CAN beat the crap out of 2nl while still doing lots of things horribly. Just focus on the basics and you'll be fine.
 
LD1977

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My BR is 190$ right now (160$ + 30 T$) so I can play comfortably. I am following a super tight BR strategy (justified since I am a sucky beginner) and do not plan to move to 5NL until I get to 500$ AND can easily multitable 2NL profitably. When I start 5 NL I will do it 2-4 tables at a time until I figure out what adjustments need to be made.

Exception can be made with ring game tickets just to test the water (right now I am using them to check out how Rush plays).

Limping:
- I limp 22-66 and sometimes 77-99 in EP and I call raises with all pairs below QQ (following the "20x rule") and AK unless I know the raiser opens wide. If the table is 3bet/4bet happy with a few aggro players then I very rarely (experimentally) limp power pairs too (KK, AA).
- In exceptional cases I limp from LP instead of opening (when there are like 5 limpers ahead and I hold T9s or something similar).
- I sometimes complete SCs and Axs from SB if there are many limpers.

My cbet is pretty high but as you say my range is pretty powerful against limper ranges, especially since I open SCs and all PPs in LP so I can credibly fire at a lot of boards :D also I play IP most of the time so that helps a lot.
- Standard cbet size is half pot regardless if I missed or not, but I pot sometimes on FD boards since fishes LOVE to chase flushes for any price whatsoever. Sometimes from EP I check raise people for extra fun and profit :D it also makes them more vary of autobetting every time I check (that is getting on my tits).

I write extremely quickly so I take lots of notes, and I mean LOTS... can do this super easily with 5 tables, easily up to 8. 9th-10th are a bit borderline.

The idea behind multitabling is to prepare myself for the future and also to clean up my game. Thing is, I can crush 2NL pretty brutally if I only play one table (20+ bb/100) but this is 100% exploitative approach and it can't be expanded so there is no future in that.

I need to have a good technical game and that means I need to put in volume so I can analyze stats and draw conclusions.
Plugging major technical leaks is priority No. 1 and I can't do that if I am focused on exploiting random fishes.

Open bet size is usually 4x in EP/MP and 3x in LP +1 per limper but capped at about 7x with premiums.

I am still learning about my opening ranges, or to be more exact I am opening them gradually.
 
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WVHillbilly

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You're calling WAY too much. Position and initiative are the 2 most powerful things in poker, use them. Yes, even at 2nl.

I wouldn't worry about opening your range just yet. Learn to play your current tight range well first.

You don't always (nor should you) have to cbet 1/2 pot. In fact, if you're going to set 1 default value (you shouldn't imo) go with 2/3 pot (again because your range is tight and you generally have the best hand). I would recommend varying between 1/2 pot and full pot based on all the usual stuff (opponents, position, cards, board texture, villain type(s), etc.).

I really hope I'm not wasting my time in this thread because honestly your response above seems like "Thanks BUT this is the way I play.". The way you play is NOT good. I mean really not good. Not trying to be a dick, just trying to get through to you on this one.
 
LD1977

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I took the trouble to explain the logic behind everything I do exactly so you can explain which parts are wrong.

"Calling WAY too much" clashes with advice about set mining. I don't feel confident 3beting small/medium pairs and folding them is way too nitty considering how great sets are (unless the "20x" rule prevents calling). Same goes for AK, I read a lot about this and opinions are divided on the issue (3bet or flat).

Also calling with speculative hands against many limpers is not my own invention but advice I am following from forums, articles, books etc. It sounds logical since folding out 4-5 people who already limped is an extremely rare event in 2NL (yes I tried).

I know my VPIP/PFR gap is too big but I simply don't know how to close it without breaking above 2 advices/rules of play. I did explain exactly what I am calling with so you can give feedback if you want. I need EXACT advice about which of my current calling hands are mistakes (experiment with premiums from EP are like 0.05% of my total limps so that is not the issue) and not simply "you are calling too much". When I teach kids chess I do not tell them "you need to be more active" but explain to them what are the strategic goals and tactical advantages of activity, exactly how to create activity and which rules to follow (there is a line between proper activity and over aggression).

Cbet sizing I am unsure of at this moment. I experimented with it and when I was varying it it seemed that half pot on average gives best results. If I varied according to hand strength people eventually started reading that and then it was trouble. I plan to work on this more in the future.
 
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WVHillbilly

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A great way to start is just to stop limping completely. You can add it back later in certain VERY RARE circumstances but for now just stop totally. Call opens when you're getting the right price to set mine only. Stop calling completely with SCs and Ax hands except on the BTN. Fold or raise everything else. For now stop calling with AK. 3bet it every time.
 
LD1977

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Now we are talking :D Thx, will try that and see how it goes.
 
Blobweird123

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Check the Saw Flop Option, add it, and then highlight it and select Not.

Why did I not understand this without PokerTracker Rep's picture guiding me in the software thread? LOL Thanks WVH you nailed it and I was just being an idiot :p
 
LD1977

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OK here is an update:

1) As mentioned in the opening post, over first 67k hands played I was losing -9.54 bb/100 preflop
2) Since then, over next 19k hands I have reduced the bleeding to -6.34 bb/100

My total win rate went from 3.16 bb/100 (yes I know, horrible) to 6.57 bb/100 (still pretty bad, it would be much better if I spewed a bit less). Almost entire increase can be attributed to preflop change.

Meaning, this type of thing was a pretty significant leak overall and it seems to be somewhat plugged at the moment.

P.S. I took WVHillbilly's advice about 3betting AK and despite mostly flipping when called I am getting quite a few folds... will not analyze this yet, not enough hands to be sure about the effect.
 
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WVHillbilly

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So exactly what changes did you make?
 
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