Real-world variance

Variance is discussed quite often in this forum but is rarely specific and usually just stated as a basic reality in poker. How often do you, personally, experience extended downswings? And how long does an extended downswing usually last? I'd like to hear from the guys who basically play cash for a living and rely heavily on poker for their yearly income, but any opinions or experiences are appreciated.

I used to play at least 5 days a week in $ 1 - $ 2 no limit live here in So Cal,mostly Hollywod Park Casino but after almost 2 months of downswing & an experienced of collusion ( cheating players ) I quit playing Cash Game and switch to Live Tournament .
In my experienced its almost impossible for collusion because tournament players are being move randomly from one table to another table.
Last June 8 2013 ,I won my First Live tournament, $ 7600 first place, $ 165 - buy in.
I'm very happy that I was able to win a tournament after those downswing,now that I have a job I will not play live cash game for 5 days a week,maybe once a month or if theres no live tournament but as much as possible i'm not into it anymore,Only live tournaments if i could.
Just hang in there ,maybe take a break from poker for a while just to break the jinx.
Goodluck & i hope you get your groove back.

I don't depend on it, but I do play a lot of hands, many more than an average recreational player would. My downswings tend to be breakeven/slightly losing stretches tbh, and they can last for many tens of thousands of hands.

There are a ton of variables to this, I played cash for income around 6 years. One thing I can say is that Live poker games, it is possible to actually detect more accurately your opponents hand (if you are good at this), and as such, you shouldn't ever see a downswing larger than 10 buy ins.

Cafeman, where do you play currently?

^^ It's hard to go on a downswing that large playing live, but live play is generally less aggressive overall (even though the difference is shrinking). At the core it's really just that live players are kind of bad. The greater your edge the less likely you'll end up dropping that many buy ins. That it takes so much longer playing the equivalent number of hands also makes it more difficult seeing streaks of that nature.

DunningKruger said:

^^ It's hard to go on a downswing that large playing live, but live play is generally less aggressive overall (even though the difference is shrinking). At the core it's really just that live players are kind of bad. The greater your edge the less likely you'll end up dropping that many buy ins. That it takes so much longer playing the equivalent number of hands also makes it more difficult seeing streaks of that nature.

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What about what Fortmax was saying? Is it normal to go on a 2 month downswing playing live?

I have to admit the only post I read was the one I replied to, but having read the post now by Fortmax yes that can certainly happen (especially if you're playing against colluders). I know someone who had a ~30 bi downswing live, but there are other people who've yet to go over 10. As always it's just the game you're in and your play style, your edge, etc etc but yeah it does happen. Also, and this is probably a different topic, but running bad live seems to be a lot more frustrating and a lot more tilting for some ppl - perhaps due in part to the pace of the game. This can affect your play and turn a "downswing" into something more.

OldschoolSteinhausen said:

Cafeman, where do you play currently?

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50NL 6max on stars lifer.

had many 50k+, a couple 100k also...

Playing 1-2 NL I have lost $1800 in a week but ended the month breaking even. 2-5 NL I have lost $5k in a week but always bounce back when the month is over.