Real profit, is there any to be had anymore?

Joeyjojo40

Joeyjojo40

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So, I cant seem to win online. I get caught in a never ending cycle, and this includes live games, where I play well and do ok, then get smashed in the face by variance so badly that I'm either back at zero or down. For example I walked away with $1000 at a 1/2NLHE live casino game one weekend, then dump $750 the next where I had AA cracked 4 times, set over set 3 times, and generally second best all night. This isn't caused by being too LAGG, this is pure cooler awesomeness.

I know the BS people will say, think long term, this happens to everyone, yadda yadda. But I'm looking for a living profit from this. My thinking is that 99% of the people on forums like these say they are positive but aren't. I'm wondering if poker in general is worth the time anymore. Its become a loose idiot fest at low stakes (super chaos) and too overcrowded with well trained people at higher stakes, meaning less profitability.

So, what do you claim to make and at what stakes. And I don't want to see BB/hour, I want real, per month take home dollars as if this was a job for you (it is). And how often are you up one month and down the exact same the next?

And part of me thinks the best move is save up a stake in the muggle-world and skip micro and 1/2 entirely to get out of the idiot-pool. You can be good but its the thunderdome in there. I have a friend, a pro starcraft gamer, who is profitable at 2/5 live. He tried to sit 1/2 with me and couldn't beat it. And never wants to go there again. Isn't that a big red flag?
 
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exostenz

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I wish you all the best I lose on a constant basis because i am still undisciplined. I get lucky against the AA as many times as mine get beaten but I take a little money out now and again but end up putting in more in the long run but I have fun playing
 
Fknife

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It hurts you that much that you have to play with idiots and weak players at lowest stakes?
 
12551255

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Nowadays it's seems so difficult to squeeze out a profit. I gotta admit I'm a little tired of grinding. There are still some fish, but players are getting better and the online sites seem to be favoring the poor players more. I'm still doing good live, just don't get much of a chance to go.
 
Serkish

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after about playing two hrs live at 1/2 i was up $300 and one bad beat just sent me back to what i started with, i feel like sometimes im wasting my time playing 1/2 as well but you have to take good with bad and i think it is profitable if you have a good run
 
Joeyjojo40

Joeyjojo40

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after about playing two hrs live at 1/2 i was up $300 and one bad beat just sent me back to what i started with, i feel like sometimes im wasting my time playing 1/2 as well but you have to take good with bad and i think it is profitable if you have a good run

Yeah, this is kind of my point. If beating 1/2 or micro online means having to rely on lucky runs, then is it really beatable for a profit? Or more theoretically, unless you have some magic system to out-dumbass players at low stakes, is it better to try to skip them as fast as possible. That was my goal, get the F out of 1/2 and move to 2/5. I had a poker coach tell me as much, that at my skill level, if I cant afford 2/5, I should sit 1/2/5, since it has the worst of the 2/5 players and the better range of 1/2 which can be a juicy crowd. But, when I get close to grinding my way out of the 1/2 muck, here comes the variance hammer and I'm back to lameville.

Almost every story I hear from pros is that they hit some lucky big first win, tournament or run of live games, that staked them up the ladder. Grinders I see at 1/2 (I dont count myself among them, I have a jobby-job but want added income from poker, so its not my main thing) are always struggling. Its as if they gave up on the dream and got lazy, grinding out a tiny living from the lowest casino stakes available. *

* Sorry, not meaning to berate grinders at 1/2, just saying from what I see it isnt a particularly easy lifestyle.
 
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No Brainer

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The magic system to beat low level players? Value bet and don't pay them off when they come back at you...

If you think playing poker for a living is easy you should think again. The majority of poker players lose money, its that simple. If there was no rake you would expect 50% of people to win and 50% to lose but when you add the rake in it swings it to make most people lose and a few win. Taking this into consideration to make a decent profit you need to be playing better than 90% of the people you play against which is very tough even at low stakes.

Notice how I don't even mention variance? That's because it is just a part of the game and good bankroll management should ensure that variance is not a problem.
 
Joeyjojo40

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Still waiting to hear real profit numbers :)
 
Dorugremon

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I've been doing just fine on-line, and the games seem as fishy as ever. So far as runbad goes, it happens and I'm just coming off a stretch that lasted almost two years.

So, I cant seem to win online. I get caught in a never ending cycle, and this includes live games, where I play well and do ok, then get smashed in the face by variance so badly that I'm either back at zero or down. For example I walked away with $1000 at a 1/2NLHE live casino game one weekend, then dump $750 the next

You don't give any details here, but I'm sensing discipline problems here. It's extremely difficult to win $1000 at 1/2 NLHE, given that the buy is almost universally limited to $200, even if that max buy makes yours the shortest stack in the game. That, I don't worry about. If I leave with more than I brought, it's a victory.

This looks like winner's tilt, and winning big can put you on a steamer as surely as losing big, as hard as that may be to believe. Just because one session went extremely well doesn't mean that you can do no wrong. That's bad thinking and it will lead you into major trouble and setbacks.

I have never unloaded $750 at 1/2. (Once -- just once -- I went $600 but that was a donk-a-thon of epic proportions.) If things aren't working out, I'm out of there after the second buy. After that, I can't guarantee I won't be tilting, so I don't stick around to find out.

where I had AA cracked 4 times, set over set 3 times, and generally second best all night. This isn't caused by being too LAGG, this is pure cooler awesomeness.
How did that happen? Do you have a tendency to get sticky with pocket aces? There are definitely flops that turn this into a very marginal hand that should fold to pressure.

Getting stuck with second or third set when a higher set's out there is going to cost you some chips, no doubt about that. However, are you "marrying" the damn things and not considering your opponent might be playing a higher set? I know I've dropped these hands a lot in cases where the only way the action made sense was for the villain to have that higher set.

Are you sure these coolers aren't of your own making?

Its become a loose idiot fest at low stakes (super chaos) and too overcrowded with well trained people at higher stakes, meaning less profitability.
I don't see how a "loose idiot fest" poses a problem here. Sure, you see more coolers because your idiot opponent shows you some of the strangest hands for some of the most bizarre reasons. However, they keep making those long shot draws against all odds, and their massively -EV play will get them sooner than later. You lose the ability to steal blinds and buy pots with double and triple barrels, but they'll pay off your value bets like an ATM. Nut peddling ain't the most fun way to play, but if that's what it takes to get the money, who cares?

And part of me thinks the best move is save up a stake in the muggle-world and skip micro and 1/2 entirely to get out of the idiot-pool. You can be good but its the thunderdome in there. I have a friend, a pro starcraft gamer, who is profitable at 2/5 live. He tried to sit 1/2 with me and couldn't beat it. And never wants to go there again. Isn't that a big red flag?
If he wasn't beating 1/2 it was because he wasn't adjusting to his opponents. You don't take ( A,K ) and triple barrel a ( Q, 7, 2 -rainbow ) flop that keeps ragging off on the turn and river if you know there's a fishy, FoFfy, sticky player in there who refuses to let go of a ( Q,6-off ) because "me has pair!" You check your whiff down and fold to any bet and wait for the next hand. You keep waiting until you catch him in there with ( Q,rag ) when you're holding ( A,Q ) and get paid off as he whines about his "bad luck"

You play in the "thunderdome" by not giving in to the temptation to join them in questionable plays. You keep throwing 'em away until you get something you like. Never make plays that are predicated on thinking opponents. They're not thinking, they won't appreciate such plays, and you'll usually value own yourself that way. You do very simple, very obvious, plays against such opponents. No need to worry about balancing or anything even remotely like that. They're not paying attention, they won't figure you out, and they surely won't exploit.
 
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DunningKruger

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The buy in at 1/2 NL live is almost universally capped at 100 blinds? I have to disagree with that one.

As for the original post, learn how to beat idiots. Trust me. Don't fear these guys lol. You'll be doing yourself a favour because most poker players in my experience are idiots..... so knowing how to play against them is pretty handy.

Online games are tougher than they used to be, but they're still very much beatable. My pro tip is to play live PLO lol that shit is Cottenelle soft. I played a couple marathon sessions (tonight one of them) drunk out of my face both instances and absolutely crushed it. Low stakes live NLH you get a lot of limping and passive play but everyone just pots and repots in PLO before you even look at your hand. It was heads up for at least an hour and the brosef kept blind repotting my blind button raises. The best part is that we were deeper than Mario's **** in princess Peach's peach at the end of <insert favourite Mario game here>. So deep. Deeeeeeeep.

What were we talking about again. IDIOTS. Don't be one, if it can be helped, but don't avoid them either. Also, the mentality should be to play as a learning exercise to sharpen your skills and also reconnaissance to continually better understand your opponents. If you happen to make any money as well then cool, but that's a bonus.

I'm so insightful at 5am.

Also wait.. sorry still reading random pieces of this topic... your poker coach seriously said to sit 1/2/5 if you can't afford to play 2/5? For realsies? If you need a magic system to beat 1/2 (which is unbeatable because the players are bad) then what do you need to beat 2/5? A non magic system? In my own personal experience I think the players are a little more predictable at 1/2 (not that I play a ton of 1/2) but hey games and populaces do have differences I suppose.

What were we talking about again.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Thinking you're gonna jump to a more skilled player pool and make more money than when you play against terribad players is delusional. Unless the rake in your 1/2 games is unusually high, I assure you it is a very beatable game.

My advice: work on your mental game, and avoid playing against 1/2 players according to how they SHOULD play but rather how they ACTUALLY play.
 
PokerFunKid

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Bankroll management and mental game are very important. Don't play if you don't feel like it. Don't start a MTT if you don't want to play for a long time. Stop and take a break when you think it is needed. Play at a level you're comfortable at. Always try to play every hand the best way you can and try to become better. Analyse your own play and try to find out where you can get better. Also gameslecting is important. Select the games you think you're the most profitable in.
 
Oksana Karaulova

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I always have bad luck (
permanently leaving in the negative, while when I play with good hands ((
Some crossings (
 
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On a decent month I'll make $1000 playing about 15hrs/week. .25/.50 is my jam.

But it goes all sorts of ways. Last night I lost $400 in twenty minutes. I had some tables of .5/1 open. Raised KTs from the BTN. Flop is AKT, Turn completed a flush draw. River popped another K. We both end up all in - villain was slow playing AA for a better full house. Two hands later, I ran KK into AA. Two hands later caught 2 pair against a flush + over cards holding, all the chips went in and the draw completed. Then I titled off another $100.

Shit sucks.

I had a $150 hand two nights ago. I had KT. Flopped A Q J. Heads up match. PFR checks to me, I bet. He calls. Turn was a blank. Villain checks again, I bet, he min raises me. I tank shove. He calls with AQ. Perfect right? Q hits on the river. I lose $150.

Shit sucks.

So, for this week I'm currently about -$600. And these kinds of things happen so often it feels like the RNG has some kind of bug in it. BUT, it's because people don't think about value in relative terms. I tried to bet someone off pocket 7s on an A K board, and I bluffed off like $30. These fools just constantly call with anything, and unfortunately that means that they will assuredly get there some times (and then go give your money to the next player). Thing is, it's for all your chips in all ideal situations.

Shit sucks.
 
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euchreob

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I really hate it when i lose my stack to a fish and then he gives my money to everyone at the table.
 
Karozi615

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Honestly, it depends on where you are IMO. I think with the traffic on a site like pokerstars you could definitely be successful if you are both good and reasonable about your expectations. If your trying to play in the United States its a bit different.

The reason being is that online poker doesn't really exist. The market is very small and sketchy and the player pool is scaled towards people who really really want to play. This means new players aren't going to be inclined to sign up.

Meanwhile pokerstars signs on professional athletes and can advertise freely, which attracts new players.


Another thing is that its hard to make money when you don't put in a lot of volume. If your playing once a week you could conceivably lose 8 weeks in a row and play very well every session, that's just reality. I would recommend that you stop taking it so seriously and just play recreationally, if you turn a profit its all the better for you.
 
rawbad

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I have been playing all my life im 50 now I play online a lot it is so hard to keep bankrolls with online games it seems I make more money on monthly live games or going to casino so to answer your question yes keep going it takes a lot of time to keep big bankroll enough to pay bills with but GOODLUCK
 
Dorugremon

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Raised KTs from the BTN. Flop is AKT, Turn completed a flush draw. River popped another K. We both end up all in - villain was slow playing AA for a better full house.

Raising KT-s from the button is pretty standard. However, KT is a big RIO hand, and flops lots of dangerous two pair/trips. I'd play bottom two on a AKT board very carefully, especially when AK makes the top two. QJ has you nutted right there, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, JT, any Qx or Jx combo has gut shot possibilities and redraws to higher two pairs. Given the board, I'd've probably been gone when the possible comes in. No way would I stack off in this scenario.

"Two hands later, I ran KK into AA".

Oh well...

Two hands later caught 2 pair against a flush + over cards holding, all the chips went in and the draw completed.
Don't worry about it: all the money went in good. This is what you want: fish who fall on love with these draws and chase them for -EV. Sometimes, they get there. That's why we have fish to play against that makes the game profitable. If they never won one, they'd decide that roulette or Craps or blackjack (all -EV games) would give them a better deal.

Then I titled off another $100.

Shit sucks.
Never be the author of your own misfortune. If things go that badly, it's time to leave. A bet, or buy-in, saved is as good as a bet or buy earned.

I had a $150 hand two nights ago. I had KT. Flopped A Q J. Heads up match. PFR checks to me, I bet. He calls. Turn was a blank. Villain checks again, I bet, he min raises me. I tank shove. He calls with AQ. Perfect right? Q hits on the river. I lose $150.

Shit sucks.
No it doesn't. You got it in good; the fish drew out against the odds. He had four outs, and his call wasn't +EV. These are the plays you want him to be making. That he got there SUX for you, but look at it from the fish's PoV: he won the pot, therefore he convinces himself he did something right. He'll keep doing it with no regard to how -EV that was, and you'll get it back with interest.

So, for this week I'm currently about -$600. And these kinds of things happen so often it feels like the RNG has some kind of bug in it.
That's Vera Variance at work. Vera is Lady Luck's uglier, nastier sister. I've been seeing a lot of these accusations, especially against poker stars, and I can't say one way or the other as I don't play there. Some even make a certain sense, such as steering the occasional big win to the biggest losers to keep them playing. I've seen live poker rooms "burn out" when the fish stop coming either because they got broke, or decide poker's not for them, or for any number of reasons. The venue I mostly play hasn't offered a PLO game in months: all those insane PLO players either went broke (or were comitted :D ) However, at Carbon, the deals and run-outs look pretty much the same as at live. I'm sure they're not pulling any fast ones when it comes to the RNG.

It's variance, and sometimes you see some of the damnedest things. Two sessions of live back, I counted pocket aces dealt around the table eight times. There were two straight flushes dealt, and a set of quads. This in a game where alternating decks were used, and with an auto shuffler that shuffled the previous deck in play. Stick around poker tables long enough and you'll see something weird eve when you think you've seen it all.

BUT, it's because people don't think about value in relative terms. I tried to bet someone off pocket 7s on an A K board, and I bluffed off like $30. These fools just constantly call with anything, and unfortunately that means that they will assuredly get there some times (and then go give your money to the next player). Thing is, it's for all your chips in all ideal situations.

Shit sucks.

Hope they never figure out relative value. Also, don't barrel sticky players. Wait until you get a hand, then value bet the hell out of them.
 
akran75

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my real profit is couple of thousand dolars.but I must emphasize that I went from frerolola.No deposit
...cash game,i think I think I'm on a budget, just do not have the nerves for that game, but still often play.many time sit on table with 100 Bb,go on 400..500 BB,and I I do not know to give up,and ofcourse then lose..
//tournament is for me the only way for money..
 
Rattletrap

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Thinking you're gonna jump to a more skilled player pool and make more money than when you play against terribad players is delusional. Unless the rake in your 1/2 games is unusually high, I assure you it is a very beatable game.

My advice: work on your mental game, and avoid playing against 1/2 players according to how they SHOULD play but rather how they ACTUALLY play.

/ Thread.
 
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I've felt this way as well but what it comes down to is bankroll management lol I play solid for a few hours then blow up and full-bank-roll a higher stake looking for a quick score.

Usually it doesn't work haha
 
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Poker is a game. If you want to make a living the best way to do that is to have a steady job.
If your making a living off poker, then good for you. But most cant count on making money playing a game. Im sure millions would love to be able to make money playing football or basketball.. but how many people actually do?
Just my two cents. Your quest should simply to get as good at the game as you can, and to have as much fun with it as you can. If your quest is to make a living off it, you could run into a lot of stress. Not saying you wont succeed or anything.

Oh.. And on the topic of idiots in poker.. Theres no such thing! Anyone at the table with chips is a threat to your chip stack. Thats just my way of looking at it.
 
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pigpen02

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The best way to make a living at poker is to host a poker TV show or run any sort of gaming establishment. If you want to play to make a living, the amount you win must be lost by others plus some. If there were a sure way to get as good as others, nobody would win.
 
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the answer to this question depends on your lifestyle and how much money you make currently.

can you grind out a livable income online? it depends on your definition of livable. if you're making 60k a year right now, the chances of you making that much online is so incredibly low because the games are harder.

are you a min wage paycheck to paycheck kinda guy? sure, you can grind out your daily wage once you put lots and lots of time learning the game.

i hate questions like this because it depends on the person. id say the strategy nowadays is to get good online, go to local casino where the live games are so incredibly soft you can make some decent cash grinding em out.
 
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SenorMath

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I think we all guys need to stop complaining about bad luck. This is such a mental thing. It can destroy you from inside. I truly know it is hard to deal with bad beats and lots of good players sometimes have trouble with it as well. But you really need to be honest to yourself, did you play the hand truly perfect, if yes, than it's just a cooler. If you find something where you could have done better by bet sizing or whatever. Or was it a wrong open preflop? All things that could have caused your loss. If you did nothing wrong and your opponent is a total idiot in poker, you should be happy, you could easily win it back.

The cooler thing is also something psychological. You will never forget a bad beat and it might trace you for the next few hands, or the rest of the evening. But when you have set over set, it is really likely that you don't even know it anymore at the end of the session. Only if you really give it your best to remember. You will suckout on people sometimes as well and you should just focus on playing in a way that people can pay off their bad hands to you
 
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