The Read vs The Cards

CRStals

CRStals

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Was this the right read or a donk bet?

.02/.05 NL
Stack is $5.70
Villian is at $5.08 and to my immediate left

First in & I raise 3BB with JJ
Villian re-raises to 7BB total
All fold to me - I call.

Pot =$0.77.
Flop comes 7c4c3d

I check
Villian bets $0.45
I call

Turn comes 9c
I check
Villian checks

River Ah
My read on him is that he can't beat aces and that he either has me on a weak ace or the draw. So I bet $1

1) Right river bet?
2) Right to check/call on the flop and turn?
3) What did he have?
 
TimovieMan

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1) No. His most likely holding just hit, so he's never folding. And if he had QQ/KK, then he's probably not folding that either.

2) It's definitely not wrong. Check/raising or leading folds his AQ/AK hands and puts you in serious trouble with QQ+. You'd only beat 99/TT (and on the turn, even 99 got there).

3) Given his turn check, he has overcards. Given his preflop 3-bet, he has AK/AQ.
 
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Sneaky Feet

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Check/raise the flop with pocket jacks on this board. He could have anything including low suited connectors that he's bluffing with preflop. When the 3rd club comes on the turn your hand just turned into a bluff catcher so check/call turn, check/call/fold the river depending.
 
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lukeellul92

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Sounds like AK maybe a loose AQ 3bet. I feel like QQ+ would keep barrelling turn here.

He could have also had tens in this spot as well. Depends on his 3bet %% etc .

Still feels like AK with a %100 Cbet on just about any flop, with zero plan for the turn.
River is worst card in deck for our exact hand and I'd probably just check this down tbh. If your read is he can't beat an A, then you need to bet and rep that.
 
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freestocks

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A 8 and calling the river bet.
 
CRStals

CRStals

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1) No. His most likely holding just hit, so he's never folding. And if he had QQ/KK, then he's probably not folding that either.

2) It's definitely not wrong. Check/raising or leading folds his AQ/AK hands and puts you in serious trouble with QQ+. You'd only beat 99/TT (and on the turn, even 99 got there).

3) Given his turn check, he has overcards. Given his preflop 3-bet, he has AK/AQ.

1) If he had Ax / KK / QQ I'd have a hard time folding the river when all of a sudden I lead out.

2) The way the hand developed I felt I played my JJ "cute" risking losing to QQ / KK but my gut sense wasn't to fold to his bet on that flop.

3) The check on the turn told me a lot. All of a sudden I realized that the draws were scaring him & the Ace on the river made me think that he can't beat a draw or an Ace...

However, he did not have AK or AQ.

Check/raise the flop with pocket jacks on this board. He could have anything including low suited connectors that he's bluffing with preflop. When the 3rd club comes on the turn your hand just turned into a bluff catcher so check/call turn, check/call/fold the river depending.

So how much is too much on the river to fold? Isn't a small bet after a big pre-flop raise a sign that this guy is playing cute and trapping?

Sounds like AK maybe a loose AQ 3bet. I feel like QQ+ would keep barrelling turn here.

He could have also had tens in this spot as well. Depends on his 3bet %% etc .

Still feels like AK with a %100 Cbet on just about any flop, with zero plan for the turn.
River is worst card in deck for our exact hand and I'd probably just check this down tbh. If your read is he can't beat an A, then you need to bet and rep that.

He hadn't been three betting much at all so I gave him credit originally for AKs/AA/KK/QQ/AQs. When the draws hit and he checked it was clear he had no draw, so the only hands left were KK and QQ in my mind.

When the ace hits the river, I was pretty sure I could take the pot which is why I did bet.

Thanks guys for the feedback. So to end the story...

He folds the river showing KK. Why he showed I'm not sure (I never do, bluffing or not. Free info is powerful at a cash game or tournament)

Made me smile that my read was correct & his read on me was not only wrong but enough to get him to lay down the winner. It also made me realize how bad he played the KK's. He had no idea where he was in this hand after my call on the flop & every card after that made his hand look more and more inferior.

You have to play premium pairs more stronger than this if you're going to avoid getting bluffed off on the end. And if you lose your bearings on where you think you are in the hand, you're in trouble.
 
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lukeellul92

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Yep, he lost the hand when he checked the turn... Also his 3bet Pre is way too small.. Oh well. Easy money for you!
 
CRStals

CRStals

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Yep, he lost the hand when he checked the turn... Also his 3bet Pre is way too small.. Oh well. Easy money for you!

I agree that he lost it the moment the club draw hit on the turn and he slowed down. When a card like that hits & I'm holding a premium pair I don't think I ever slow down. Might be -EV short term but I think the moment you showed weakness like that you get lost & eventually have to fold.

Pre-flop though I was first in with JJ and he went up 4BB more. I think that was too small - but he didn't go to 3BB pre.
 
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johnnygadget

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I'm a noob, but it sounds to me like you're all playing by rules, and you think everybody else plays by the same rules. Maybe it's just my inexperience, but it seems like judging someones hand by the amount of their raise isn't as straight forward as you're making it sound. I don't know these betting rules that you seem to be following, I haven't read those poker books, so judging my hand based on these rules will lead you wrong, because I'm not following them, and neither was the villain it sounds like.
Where do I find these rules? I know there are other threads here that give references to good books to check out, but are there any books you would recommend I take a look at to learn how to balance reading players vs reading cards?

While reading the OP, I thought for sure the guy was holding an A with a 10+ kicker. I would not have bet and would have lost the pot for sure. How did you feel when you decided to bet big on the river? Were you just hoping that he wasn't holding an A, or did you already have a decent gut feeling that he wasn't? What exactly helped you decide it was a play to make? Were you judging by your BR? I mean was the decision like, I can take the hit if I lose so why not try to make him fold, because the pot is worth X and it's worth it to risk X from my BR? or what?
 
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CRStals

CRStals

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I'm a noob, but it sounds to me like you're all playing by rules, and you think everybody else plays by the same rules. Maybe it's just my inexperience, but it seems like judging someones hand by the amount of their raise isn't as straight forward as you're making it sound. I don't know these betting rules that you seem to be following, I haven't read those poker books, so judging my hand based on these rules will lead you wrong, because I'm not following them, and neither was the villain it sounds like.
Where do I find these rules? I know there are other threads here that give references to good books to check out, but are there any books you would recommend I take a look at to learn how to balance reading players vs reading cards?

While reading the OP, I thought for sure the guy was holding an A with a 10+ kicker. I would not have bet and would have lost the pot for sure. How did you feel when you decided to bet big on the river? Were you just hoping that he wasn't holding an A, or did you already have a decent gut feeling that he wasn't? What exactly helped you decide it was a play to make? Were you judging by your BR? I mean was the decision like, I can take the hit if I lose so why not try to make him fold, because the pot is worth X and it's worth it to risk X from my BR? or what?

My gut told me that when the club draw hit on the turn, and he slowed down, coupled with with the bet pre flop, and based on his prior play, he didn't have Ax, and he put me on the draw that hit. He hasn't been three betting with Ace high, but did three bet QQ several hands earlier. I felt I played the hand as if I had Ax suited, and leading out like I did it wanted to look like a value bet. I never make decisions based on my bankroll. If I'm at a table, I know I could lose all of it in one hand. If I'm afraid to lose that, I don't play at that limit.

Not everyone playing at .02/.05 plays recklessly.

I found your first comment interesting. Your right that not everyone plays by a set of rules when it comes to betting. However, people tend to set their own rules and stick to them and this player had three bet only once before with QQ. It's possible he changes it up and three bets with Ax, and if he did in this case and calls I learn my lesson. He hadn't done that yet, so I went with what I knew and led out. Thankfully I was right.
 
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johnnygadget

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That's great. Thanks for explaining how you processed the situation. I totally get this statement 'people tend to set their own rules and stick to them', but I hadn't realized this before, it's just so... kinda genius, it just gave me an epiphany. Deduce the hard evidence to discover their rules. Discover their rules then maybe I can decode their hands with relatively high accuracy. This sounds really obvious, but until now i just hadn't thought about it that way exactly.

I can use deductive reasoning to kinda learn someones poker rules even if they don't play according to popular rules.
If a learn all the 'popular' poker rules, like by reading popular material for instance, then I can probably recognize if someone is playing by the book, or a book, and use that to understand their moves and decode what their hand is.
If their playing doesn't seem to correspond with any of the well known rules I can still probably discover their personal rules, because everybody has some rule that they are likely to stick to, even if it's just to be chaotic. Knowledge...

on the flip side I can try to give an impression of following the same rules, and hope they notice and start trying to predict my plays based on that disinformation. I'm not ready to play with such control, but hopefully I can get there.

'I felt I played the hand as if I had Ax suited, and leading out like I did it wanted to look like a value bet.' I see how you were able to use the flopped cards as objective evidence to make it seem like you raised with Ax suited and then made consistent play to further seat that notion in your opponents reasoning, causing him to backdown and give you the pot.
 
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beckyg89

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test him on the flop to get a better idea of where youre at

Was this the right read or a donk bet?

.02/.05 NL
Stack is $5.70
Villian is at $5.08 and to my immediate left

First in & I raise 3BB with JJ
Villian re-raises to 7BB total
All fold to me - I call.

Pot =$0.77.
Flop comes 7c4c3d

I check
Villian bets $0.45
I call

Turn comes 9c
I check
Villian checks

River Ah
My read on him is that he can't beat aces and that he either has me on a weak ace or the draw. So I bet $1

1) Right river bet?
2) Right to check/call on the flop and turn?
3) What did he have?

I like to check raise this flop to fold out AK AQ, if he calls I like checking down folding to any significant bets.
 
Aaron Soto

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1) Given that you call his 7x raise you are representing an Ax or Pocket Pair
2) I believe you made the right move by check/call the flop
3) Given that he checked the turn he showed weakness, this tells me A/x, K/Q,
4) There is a possibility of AA, KK or QQ. I do think he bet each street though.
5) That was a mistake to represent the Ace on the river. First off, if he has an Ace there is no way he is folding. There is so many hands that have you beat here. Two-pair, flush, QQ,KK,AA, Ace/x
6) Check/Call the river. On this river you are risking getting re-raised and risking your $ in the pot.

My guess: He has Pocket QQ or AJ

(I have not read what he had so I'm going to read that now :) )

Good Bet. Seems to me your opponent really played KK incorrectly.
 
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