Originally Posted by TimovieMan
1) No. His most likely holding just hit, so he's never folding. And if he had QQ/KK, then he's probably not folding that either.
2) It's definitely not wrong. Check/raising or leading folds his AQ/AK hands and puts you in serious trouble with QQ+. You'd only beat 99/TT (and on the turn, even 99 got there).
3) Given his turn check, he has overcards. Given his preflop 3-bet, he has AK/AQ.
1) If he had Ax / KK / QQ I'd have a hard time folding the river when all of a sudden I lead out.
2) The way the hand developed I felt I played my JJ "cute" risking losing to QQ / KK but my gut sense wasn't to fold to his bet on that flop.
3) The check on the turn told me a lot. All of a sudden I realized that the draws were scaring him & the Ace on the river made me think that he can't beat a draw or an Ace...
However, he did not have AK or AQ.
Originally Posted by Sneaky Feet
Check/raise the flop with pocket jacks on this board. He could have anything including low suited connectors that he's bluffing with preflop. When the 3rd club comes on the turn your hand just turned into a bluff catcher so check/call turn, check/call/fold the river depending.
So how much is too much on the river to fold? Isn't a small bet after a big pre-flop raise a sign that this guy is playing cute and trapping?
Originally Posted by lukeellul92
Sounds like AK maybe a loose AQ 3bet. I feel like QQ+ would keep barrelling turn here.
He could have also had tens in this spot as well. Depends on his 3bet %% etc .
Still feels like AK with a %100 Cbet on just about any flop, with zero plan for the turn.
River is worst card in deck for our exact hand and I'd probably just check this down tbh. If your read is he can't beat an A, then you need to bet and rep that.
He hadn't been three betting much at all so I gave him credit originally for AKs/AA/KK/QQ/AQs. When the draws hit and he checked it was clear he had no draw, so the only hands left were KK and QQ in my mind.
When the ace hits the river, I was pretty sure I could take the pot which is why I did bet.
Thanks guys for the feedback. So to end the story...
He folds the river showing KK. Why he showed I'm not sure (I never do, bluffing or not. Free info is powerful at a cash game or tournament)
Made me smile that my read was correct & his read on me was not only wrong but enough to get him to lay down the winner. It also made me realize how bad he played the KK's. He had no idea where he was in this hand after my call on the flop & every card after that made his hand look more and more inferior.
You have to play premium pairs more stronger than this if you're going to avoid getting bluffed off on the end. And if you lose your bearings on where you think you are in the hand, you're in trouble.