quite a noob concept question

gtothec

gtothec

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hi all
merry xmas
im probs just over thinking and missing something dead simple but i cant help but find myself asking the same question as regards to playing against sets

the issue im having (im sure like a lot of ppl) is that u can usually put your opponents on a range of hands but i just cant understand how u can ever get away from eg:
queen high rag board
u hold aces so you put your call-y opponent on a range of queen hands as he is just happy calling every bet u make.
before u know it you've got it all by the river with your kk aa aq type hands, feeling all smug with yourself only to be shown a set of 4's or something like that.
now i know this is variance and he is about 8/1 to flop a set blah blah blah

my issue with this is...
if u only get paid for a pre flop raise then they fold their small pp's to a flop bet
when u win, you win small (fairly consistent)
but when u lose, you lose massive.

i just cant see how you can get away from these types of hands unless you start playing stupidly nitty and not getting any value from your big hands?

btw i play a lot of 6 max zoom (for my sins)

any thoughts would be hugely appreciated :)
 
Arjonius

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You're only looking at part of the opponent's range. When someone calls your pre-flop bet, you can't put him on just small and mid pockets where he's set-mining. So when you look at your win or loss rate in those situations, you have to include the rest of his range.

Also, it's not as if the pockets will never put more in the pot when they miss. Players have been known to continue in various situations; e.g. when the flop is all low giving them an overpair or second pair, when they flop a draw, etc.

Plus every once in a while, you get a set over set situation where he stacks off to you.
 
IPlay

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I had a set of 8's and villian had a set of king's, these things happen. Would be interesting to know the odds of set over set, anybody?

What you want to ask is how many times villian is showing up in that spot with a set vs AQ KQ JQ, which all get over played in the micros. If you suspect something though, just try to keep the pot small and use damage control
 
gtothec

gtothec

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yeah i get set over set is just purely a cooler
and after reading this first reply i started to realise its prob just a down swing as its happened 6 times today where i hold an over pair to a raggy board and stacked off to a small flopped set.
although it still feels like u only get action with over cards or tptk when youre crushed

im sure its just a bit of a downswing at the mo. its just scaring me a little how much money im losing to something that a lot of player agree is just something that cant be helped lol
 
IPlay

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yeah i get set over set is just purely a cooler
and after reading this first reply i started to realise its prob just a down swing as its happened 6 times today where i hold an over pair to a raggy board and stacked off to a small flopped set.
although it still feels like u only get action with over cards or tptk when youre crushed

im sure its just a bit of a downswing at the mo. its just scaring me a little how much money im losing to something that a lot of player agree is just something that cant be helped lol

People have got 6 sets against you in one day? That is almost unbelievable, 10 hour+ session? Either way, if it really was 6 sets against you and you stacked off everytime, it sounds like you are overplaying your TPTK. Also, if you are trying to say you had an overpair to the board all 6 of those times then you are just plain lying.
 
loafes

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People have got 6 sets against you in one day? That is almost unbelievable, 10 hour+ session? Either way, if it really was 6 sets against you and you stacked off everytime, it sounds like you are overplaying your TPTK. Also, if you are trying to say you had an overpair to the board all 6 of those times then you are just plain lying.

I don't find it unbelievable.

I guess one solution is to maybe excersize some pot control in these situations, but for the most part I'd just consider them to be coolers.
 
rdm4k

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hey dude, it may be.

Anyway you must consider villain range plus the boad texture so you can operate "the guess" which in last instance let you make a move instead of another.
Poker is the game of un-complete information so you have to build up the knowledge using the weapon on your hand.
So you use reads on the opponents, cards you have, board, etc to refine the picture and act.

When you play a strong hand vs another we use to call it cooler which often it is the fine line that devide the winning players to the looser, I mean the ability to recognize situations and get the right decision.

(sry if i vent been too clear, may be the champagne of 2nitye :D )

this is an example of very good fold:

and there are even better, much much better folds on that type- Just youtube it
 
gtothec

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i wasnt lying about the 6 times. im more than happy to show the hh. it was a 5 hour session yesterday playing 6-9 25nl fr.
i do admit however i am probably playing tptk and overpairs clearly too aggressively and should defo exercise more pot control.

now i look back at it i think some tilt/auto clicking played a big part of me losing more than i should've yesterday.

as it happened i finished the session in the green with a healthy winrate of 8bb/100

i also believe that another reason for my post and me feeling so hard done by is that usually in a long session you will get as many sets as everyone else so it all balances out however yesterday i dont caught many flops with my pp's

thanks for everyones help on the matter though :)
 
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thebigslade

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Would be interesting to know the odds of set over set, anybody?

If there is no flush draw, you're about a 19-1 dog on the flop if villain has a higher set.
 
Arjonius

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People have got 6 sets against you in one day? That is almost unbelievable, 10 hour+ session?
It's very believable. If we use 8 to 1 as the odds of flopping a set, that means on average it happens one time in each nine hands where the opponent has a pair. Let's assume only one opponent for the sake of simplicity. So if you see the flop 54 times when the opponent has a pocket pair, he'll average hitting his set 6 times.
 
abzdolc

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rdm4k, thank's for this video, it was fun)
 
IPlay

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Odds of getting pocket pair is 16 to 1, and after that you hit a set 8 to 1

So lets say every 16 hands you get a pocket pair, then 1 in 8 you get your set That means you need to get a pocket pair 8 times to hit your set and on average it is 16 hands per pocket pair so 16 x 8=128 hands for a set. Now lets factor in that he said he has had a high pocket pair such as QQ KK or AA everytime which is 73 to 1 and this has happened 6 times in 5 hours and the odds become astronomical.
 
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I had a set of 8's and villian had a set of king's, these things happen. Would be interesting to know the odds of set over set, anybody?

What you want to ask is how many times villian is showing up in that spot with a set vs AQ KQ JQ, which all get over played in the micros. If you suspect something though, just try to keep the pot small and use damage control

once i was defeated early in a mtt holding pocket tens, it was against one villain, i 3x raised preflop he 3bet i check, the flop came T-K-2 (rainbow) so was sure i had the nuts, so the villain cbet i check raise and he shove and i payed,
he appeared holdin pocket kings, so i had the secon best hand among all possible, only losing with one and this one was there, what is sad is that if no T were showed in flop i´d problably fold, but well two sets among the only two players playing in just three cards in board, and holding the second one was very frustrating
 
gtothec

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odds of of one opponent having a pp may be 16-1 but when u consider there are 8 other ppl at the table its much less

i reviewed it again and it was actually 3 times with overs and twice with tptk (ak)

however i will say that iplay you are completely missing the point of the OP

i was simply asking in a round about way if there is anyway to avoid sets against overpairs/tptk and if not would it be more +EV in the long term to not go for the throat when holding what i used to believe were strong hands.

regardless of the details, the question was answered brilliantly by everyone so thank you all for your input
:)
 
RodneyC86

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odds of of one opponent having a pp may be 16-1 but when u consider there are 8 other ppl at the table its much less

i reviewed it again and it was actually 3 times with overs and twice with tptk (ak)

however i will say that iplay you are completely missing the point of the OP

i was simply asking in a round about way if there is anyway to avoid sets against overpairs/tptk and if not would it be more +EV in the long term to not go for the throat when holding what i used to believe were strong hands.

regardless of the details, the question was answered brilliantly by everyone so thank you all for your input
:)

If you are calling raises anywhere on turn or river with tptk from passive or fish-type preflop loose players, stop it

From what I gather, preflop passive fish love to put regs on AK and will not raise you unless they know your AK is toast given a board.

Yet they refuse to believe you have AK when they hold king rag on K high board. Such funny peoples
 
gtothec

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poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP3: $10.84 (43.4 bb)
CO: $25.41 (101.6 bb)
BTN: $11.03 (44.1 bb)
SB: $36.95 (147.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $28.77 (115.1 bb)
UTG+2: $14.28 (57.1 bb)
MP1: $32.44 (129.8 bb)
MP2: $25.43 (101.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with As Qd
UTG+2 raises to $0.75, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) Ac 5d 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1, UTG+2 raises to $2.75, Hero raises to $4.50, UTG+2 raises to $13.53 and is all-in, Hero calls $9.03

Turn: ($28.66) Td (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($28.66) Js (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $28.66 pot ($1.29 rake)
Final Board: Ac 5d 2c Td Js
Hero showed As Qd and lost (-$14.28 net)
UTG+2 showed Ah Ad and won $27.37 ($13.09 net)

can someone plz just give this a look over.
is this a serious leak in my game or can i just chalk it down to just a cooler etc?

many thanks
 
Karozi615

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What are you doing on the flop? I will never understand why people min raise- it's not a good move, what is that bet trying to accomplish? What do you get value from? You set yourself up to get crushed. You should not have gotten stacked this hand. You should have called the flop bet, and then considered folding the turn bet if you didn't improve. You obviously want to get to showdown but the problem is that when you get it in on the flop, your ALWAYS behind.

what can your opponent have on the flop that (your beating) and will give you action?
You can beat: AJ
your crushed by: AK and all sets/ 2 pairs. You have a slight bit of showdown value and position. You are losing money here for sure (and it IS a cooler) but you can't commit 100+ big blinds on that flop and go broke with AQ. He could have had AJ just as easily. It's really a matter of relative hand strength vs absolute hand strength. It's a nice flop for your hand but you only have TPTK.
Most of the time you should win a small pot in this spot, but if the pot becomes inflated you are certainly losing.
So to conclude: in this specific spot you win a small pot with limited value about 80% of the time. 20% of the time your opponent has something big and gives you action, and if the pot is inflated you will get crushed. It's a matter of situational poker, you should have just FOLDED to the 4bet.
 
gtothec

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first off i wanna say looking back i defo played this horribly and should defo have folded to the 4bet. hindsight is a wonderful thing.
i suppose at the time im thinking "great a 4 bet, lets get all the money in with my tpgk"

ok so in future i'm gonna try and play tptk small ball style and then as soon as the ppl play back ive gotta be folding 80% of the time?
i find it kinda hard to put him on 55 or 22 due to the raise pre. is that also bad thinking?
the only two pair he can honestly have there is a2 which if he does have that then shouldnt i be happy stacking off against a worse hand as a general rule?

i do agree with the min raise comment. its not usually my kind of thing either. although when i think about it now it sort of polorizes his range slightly (call- possible flush draw/gutshot/overpair raise-stronger holdings kk/ak etc)

thank you for helping :)
 
IPlay

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Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP3: $10.84 (43.4 bb)
CO: $25.41 (101.6 bb)
BTN: $11.03 (44.1 bb)
SB: $36.95 (147.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $28.77 (115.1 bb)
UTG+2: $14.28 (57.1 bb)
MP1: $32.44 (129.8 bb)
MP2: $25.43 (101.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with As Qd
UTG+2 raises to $0.75, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) Ac 5d 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1, UTG+2 raises to $2.75, Hero raises to $4.50, UTG+2 raises to $13.53 and is all-in, Hero calls $9.03

Turn: ($28.66) Td (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($28.66) Js (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $28.66 pot ($1.29 rake)
Final Board: Ac 5d 2c Td Js
Hero showed As Qd and lost (-$14.28 net)
UTG+2 showed Ah Ad and won $27.37 ($13.09 net)

can someone plz just give this a look over.
is this a serious leak in my game or can i just chalk it down to just a cooler etc?

many thanks

Why the min raises? I can understand a raise, but a min raise? What was that going to accomplish? Also, when he 3bets it is a fold or flat call and proceed with caution.
 
gtothec

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agree with the min raise being a sucky move.
my thoughts are always "if im calling a three bet here then folding on the next street when he barells again as far as im aware its pretty much do or die and id rather be the first to shove"
 
WVHillbilly

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You're overplaying your TP hands (at least in the HH posted). I mean I understand flatting pre (although 3betting and even folding!!! should be considered) but why are you trying to play such a big pot post? What do you think he's 3betting you with on the flop that you beat? What do you think he's 5betting you with that you beat? The answer to both is absolutely nothing!
The Ac is on the board so he really has no flush draws.

Look at the rest of your hands like this and see if you're not being too willing to commit all your $$ with TP. Against certain opponents it can be fine but against nits/regs it's not going to be profitable (and isn't Zone basically all nits and regs?).
 
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