question about implied odds?

P

peskey123

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ok i apologise for a lack of hand history but there was this hand i had yesterday where there was this maniac who was playing 69/12/12 (vpip/pfr/af) i know.. absolute maniac...

anyway he raised my big blind from the button and i had 910s... so i call... flop A67 rainbow. i check to him, he does his usual continuation size of the pot. now the question... can i call with two outs here (i do think he has an ace here from prvious showdowns)... he is deep stacked as am i with 100BB each. and i do think i can get the maximum out of him if i hit..
 
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watchtowel

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Isn't it 4 outs you mean?
 
_dogmeat

_dogmeat

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First of all, 69/12 is not exactly a maniac, it's your typical loose/passive fish (well, at least PF, with an AF of 12 he's a real maniac post).
Second of all, 100BB stacks is not deep, it's average.

With that out of the way, let's get to your question. You have terrible immediate pot odds to call - you only have around 15% chance of hitting your straight, or around 1:6. You should play this like you would play any pocket pair or small suited ace - hit hard or get out.

As you describe it, though, you have good implied odds, given that you'll be able to stack him if you hit your straight.

You should average around +$1 with that move. If he was really deep stacked (200BB+), your EV would have been way higher. But since you're both sitting only with 100BB, your gain isn't that big.

Also, how likely is he not to realize he's beat with such an obvious straight on the board?
 
timboslice4

timboslice4

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First of all, 69/12 is not exactly a maniac, it's your typical loose/passive fish (well, at least PF, with an AF of 12 he's a real maniac post).

exactly not really a maniac, i think you should look for a better spot. He plays more than half the hands so you will definitely find a better situation. Is the play profitable though probably not. When you think you can get a guy all in it doesn't mean you can. as far as his stats go it doesnt look like he is that aggressive just very loose.
 
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