This is a discussion on Probability question.... within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; For any given card on the flop, a K for example, what is the probability that another K will be dealt on the turn or 


#1




Probability question....
For any given card on the flop, a K for example, what is the probability that another K will be dealt on the turn or river?????? given that a full nine table exists.........
A very pertinent question if I had pocket Qs.............. I think the answer is about 8 in 16 maybe 8 in 13........ 
#2




The number of players at the table doesn't matter. It only matters how many cards we know.
Presuming this is some variety of holdem, and the card in question didn't pair you, there are three remaining Kings. We know our 2 cards and the 3 cards on the board, so there are 47 unknown cards, 44 of which will not pair the card in question. 44/47*44/47 gives us the odds of "notKing" hitting twice, or roughly 87%. So roughly a 13% chance of that card pairing in the next two cards. 
#3




Thanks,
Now, for the question I meant to ask.....
For that same K that came up on the flop, and a full table of nine players, what is the probability that one of the other players has a K ?????????? So, I sittin' here with pocket Qs, what is the probabiliity that some other player has Ks? TIA 
#4




re: Poker & Probability question....
Thats digging into the very meat of poker.
Several considerations. What hand you put your opponents on, and have they proved to you they can pull off a bluff? 3rd consideration....do you have alternate plans? 
#5




Quote:

#6




Thanks Guys, but.....
there IS a specific probability that someone (of the eight other players) has a K....
You guys are answering me with the 'people' considerations not the 'number' considerations......... I'm just trying to establish a probability in my mind.....then, armed with the odds, can take a strategic move.... TIA 
#7




18 cards, each drawing to 44/47 (pool of cards that isn't a king). 44/47 to the 18th power is 30.5%.
So there's roughly a 70 percent chance that someone was dealt a king at the full ring. Wait, I don't htink that's right, because each of the 18 cards takes away from the pool. So it's 44/47*43/46*42/45...etc. 
#8




re: Poker & Probability question....
Quote:

#9




Thanks
I figured about eight out of 13 as the probability = 62%....therefore close.......
I'm not a 'people person (hell, i'm an electrical engineer) so therefore have to work the numbers side of the game a little more...... I know this means I'm not very good at it but its pretty good fun and costs me only about $2. per week............... Thanks again......... 
#10




Quote:
If you are fine just having it as a side hobby and having fun and not being that good than you can ignore most of this, but if you really want to get better you should visit the forum, read some of the hand analysis posts and see the numbers really being applied the way they should be, to a likely range of hands, rather than assuming everyone has a random hand. 
#12




re: Poker & Probability question....
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
kind of like calulating the current through one of eight +/10% resistors in parrallel to ten decimal places.... sure you can do it... but just how much value is there in the answer? Quote:
maybe the guy has k9os and paired his king..... maybe the guy has ppAces, maybe the guy paired two cards on the flop, maybe the guy has ppJ's and his read says that you'll fold to a bet... what matters is what you think he might have ( i.e. what do you put him on )... or better yet, what is the best hand he could have and can you still beat it given your two cards, the flop, turn and river? What do you think might beat his hand.... hitting a set? a full house? a flush? Once you've determined all of these things in you mind, now you can use math to calculate your odds of winning this pot! Under the articles tab above you'll find this: Poker Odds for Dummies  Poker Odds Made Simple! This has some really good "math stuff" in it for us folks who just plain love the numbers.... plus it will help you frame your way of thinking so that you can apply the math 