Pondering this one...could I get away?

J

joeyvegasboi

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Hey Everyone,

Im on the cutoff with AKo. Hi Jack opens to 3xBB, I re raise him, he calls.

Flop comes K 10 5 rainbow I bet he raises I call.

Turn comes Ace he goes all in....

So I have 2 pair with Aces and Kings and dude pushed all in about a little over pot sized bet at this point.

Now unless he is just playing wild, only thing I really beat is a bluff. He could have a weaker ace but Im not really buying it. But its possible. He could have JQ for the straight but cause of pre flop and flop action Im not really thinking he has that so then the only other hand he has is a flopped set (although I block kings and Aces so probably only 10's or 5's)...

If I fold here I am probably never going to be making money as against a standard range I have high 70%+ equity.

The problem is his push is so polarized its either a bluff or he has it and being the board is so hot he probably wouldn't think a random pocket pair bluff could get through right?

He pushed into me on a hot board like this so you have to think unless he has Ax or AK as well for the chop, or just a stupid bluff, you are probably beat.

I haven't played many hands with him at this point yet either.

He flips over 10 10 for a set of 10's.

What do you all think? Did I view any of this in an improper manner? Could I of realized on such a hot board where I only really beat bluffs mostly (besides for a poor Ax shove) I could lay down top 2?

In the long term is this play only profitable if you hit sets as well cause what else is he really pushing with? Or is top 2 here a great bluff catcher.... Im unsure and a bit confused. Mightve just been a bad beat. Any advice would be appreciated!!! Thanks.
 
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da22duke

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I don't think its a horrible play and certainly one that is hard to get away from. I find his raise on the flop interesting. On a rainbow board where he hits a set I'd think he would have flat called the flop.
 
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kozong

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hands that beat us on flop & not 4b pre are sets & 2P, i guess im folding vs known villain
but vs unknown im going for broke too
 
ScooperNova

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Hard to fold, especially considering the moves I see online and that it was an unknown.
 
Q

quant1986

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It would depend on effective stack, stack to pot ratio.

JQ he could have played this way but his turn bet suggests he is willing to committ even if you have JQ. I agree you are right you are beating bluff most of the time or split with AK. If the turn Ace makes backdoor flush available , i may be inclined to call when < 100 bb vs unknown
 
Sil3ntness

Sil3ntness

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What did you reraise him to? How much did you bet on the flop? These are important questions to further analyze your situation. But yeah usually if someone raises on the flop they have like 2 pair or higher unless they are a maniac or don't know what they're doing. Against an unknown opponent though, I'd be wary of someone that raises me on the flop and continues their aggression on the turn.
 
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franknavin

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My first reaction is he could have AQ , A10, or AK. 1010 less likely
 
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cs_rlewis

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As played this a cooler I wouldn't worry about it. Ak is way at the top of your range. He could also do this with K10, which there 6 combos compared to TT which there are 3.
I had someone do this exact same move with KQ, I snapped called with my pocket aces.
If your unsure of what do then you should get a program like flopzilla which can analyse all the types of hands he could have in that spot and then analyse what hands you beat and what hands you dont, then you can work out if your call is profitable in the long run.
More importantly you should focus on the things you can control.
For e.g. was your 3 bet large enough? If it's on the small size you are giving good odds for junky hands to call.
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

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cooler next hand good luck.:eek:
 
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pauloandre100

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Very difficut to fold, only if you had a note of that player.
 
elflake

elflake

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That's a hard fold, and if his all-in is less than 50 BBs I make a crying call. There are some players I could fold to there but I know how they play.
 
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