Poll: 30 outer against an overbet?

What do you do?

  • Fold

    Votes: 6 16.2%
  • Just call

    Votes: 9 24.3%
  • Raise him all-in

    Votes: 22 59.5%

  • Total voters
    37
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GDRileyx

GDRileyx

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You're on the button in a ring game with 67H. Solid player UTG comes in for 2BB. You call. Flop comes K5H, 4D. He pushes half his stack, 20BB blinds. You have him just barely covered. What do you do?
 
jdeliverer

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No point in just calling - you don't want to be left with a tiny stack. I say raise all in because you are probably a favorite or very close to it.
 
Wes747

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30 outs? If hes betting that much you have to assume hitting a 6 or 7 will not help you. Even counting those 6 I don't see 30? This is more of a question than a comment as I'm not sure.
 
bgomez89

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yeah where's the 30 outs? i see only about 15
 
WVHillbilly

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This question is DUMB.
 
PattyR

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lmao i agree with WVhillbilly

obviously you either shove or fold, you pick, you feelin lucky
and willing to gamble or not.
 
c9h13no3

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Call? With 30 outs (30 outs, wtf? We likely have 14), we're getting pot odds to call and hit the turn. And we'll get pot odds to call the last of his stack as well. So we won't be making a sklansky mistake.

Also, we probably don't have much fold equity either. He's probably calling his last half stack with whatever he has. So shoving isn't all that great.

And sometimes we will hit on the turn, and get to shove in half of his stack with him crushed.

But the real answer here, is who cares? The EV difference between calling and folding isn't all that huge. As long as we don't fold, we'll be pretty happy with our play.
 
GDRileyx

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(9 hearts + 3 threes + 3 eights) x 2 draws = 30 outs. You're 60/93 to hit a straight or flush.
 
RichKo

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opponent could have A2h which would crush yo so hearts aren't technically outs are they...unless YOU had the nut draw?
 
M

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I never like to push 99% of my stack on a flulsh draw. I would fold there and wait for another chance to take all his money.
 
Stu_Ungar

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(9 hearts + 3 threes + 3 eights) x 2 draws = 30 outs. You're 60/93 to hit a straight or flush.

You dont count them like that.

You have 14 outs tops.

12 if you discount the flush as its not the nut flush.

The reason they are not counted like that is you are not calling an all-in. You are not calling a bet which allows you to see 30 outs. You are calling a bet that lets you see 14 outs. (although discounting may reduce that a little)
 
Stu_Ungar

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I think this situation plays out via implied odds.

At this point, you have no fold equity. If you shove he calls.

He is pot committed. He is shoving the turn no matter what.

You aren't quite getting correct pot odds to call (Im assuming a discount on the outs to 12)

But, as we feel he will shove the turn regardless, you are calling the the flop with excellent implied odds. (you make your hand, he will still shove)

Once you call the flop, the pot is such that his shove on the turn gives you correct odds to call (3:1).

So actually it really dosent matter if you call or shove...

However.. there is always the possibility that he is betting because he fears the draw, so there is a chance that if you make your hand he will fold.. (reducing your implied odds) by shoving here he dosent get that option.

So seeing as you will be calling the turn regardless and he will call your flop shove, why give him the option of folding if you make your hand on the turn?

I say shove, although in play I would probably not have calculated it like that so I would call...... just dont fold!!!
 
GDRileyx

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You dont count them like that.

No, you, meaning you StuU, don't count them like that. There are many other ways to count outs than the way you do it.

But, out of curiousity, I'd like to know how, counting the outs your way, you can come up with the correct answer that, with a flush draw on top of an open-ended straight draw, that you are a favorite to win the hand?
 
Stu_Ungar

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No, you, meaning you StuU, don't count them like that. There are many other ways to count outs than the way you do it.

But, out of curiousity, I'd like to know how, counting the outs your way, you can come up with the correct answer that, with a flush draw on top of an open-ended straight draw, that you are a favorite to win the hand?


Its not a case of you say tomato, I say tomatoe... you are not getting 30 outs when calling a non-all in bet. You are getting a maximum of 15
 
B

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No, you, meaning you StuU, don't count them like that. There are many other ways to count outs than the way you do it.

But, out of curiousity, I'd like to know how, counting the outs your way, you can come up with the correct answer that, with a flush draw on top of an open-ended straight draw, that you are a favorite to win the hand?

If you're only counting the 15 outs Stu is speaking of, general rule of thumb is to multiply said outs by 4 so 15X4 - 60% chance of hitting a card that makes your hand (rough estimate but pretty close). Therefore, being a 60/40 makes you the favorite. That is also assuming that your 6 and 7 are no good if they pair up, which they may be. In which case you are even more favored with those additional 6 outs, if they exist.
 
GDRileyx

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It's also a case of you not answering a direct question that proves you wrong. If your method works, you should be able to use it to come up with a correct answer in any instance. In this instance, we know the correct answer already. This hand is a favorite. Now, show me how to use your method to reach that correct answer.

If you can't do it, it proves your method is flawed.
 
Stu_Ungar

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It's also a case of you not answering a direct question that proves you wrong. If your method works, you should be able to use it to come up with a correct answer in any instance. In this instance, we know the correct answer already. This hand is a favorite. Now, show me how to use your method to reach that correct answer.

If you can't do it, it proves your method is flawed.

TBH I really dont know what you are on about, largely because I don't think you really do either.

The villain has not gone all in, so you are faced with 3 decisions

fold
call
raise

you have 15 outs... count them, list the .. whatever. 9 hearts 3 threes 3 eights.

Now you are not drawing to the nut flush so the 9 hearts should be reduced to 6 to account for this. In total you have 12 outs. which translates to just under 3:1

The pot is 24.5BB and you are faced with a call of 20BB

your 12 outs mean that you are getting 1.25:1 (not enough for a pot odds call)

However we feel that the villian has committed himself to the pot meaning that should you hit he with shove the remaining 20BB

Therefore your call of 20BB stands to win you a pot of 44.5BB if you hit on the turn. So you are being offered implied odds of 2.25:1

Really this is not quite enough, but its close and if you increase your outs to 15, it is marginally good.

If you call the flop bet the pot is now 44.5 The villain is expected to shove his last 20BB so the pot becomes 64.5BB and you have to call 20BB giving pot odds of 3.25:1 meaning that you are getting slightly more than the 3:1 required to call so its an easy call.

The slight mistake of calling the flop bet is cancelled out buy the slight increase in odds on the turn.

The only issue is why has the villain raised so large on the flop?is it that he may fold the turn if a scare card comes (one of your outs)

If this is the case then you don't really have the required implied odds to call as pot odds offer you just 1.25:1 not the 2.25:1 that were implied.

To remove this possibility raise him all-in. At this point he is definitely pot committed, he has to call.

If you call, then there is no way that you can fold on the turn as just explained but there is still a possibility that he may. The all-in prevents this and ultimately has you putting the same amount of money in as you would otherwise.


You have to consider the hand in this way rather than simply assuming that you have 30 outs because your opponent has not raised all-in.
 
blankoblanco

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jesus christ gdrileyx. an "out" is a poker term which means a card that will give you the best hand, or at least the likely best hand

you can say you have "15 outs on the flop". you can say you have "15 outs twice". but you cannot say you have 30 outs. the definition of the term "out" in poker is not subjective, you're just wrong, get over it
 
GDRileyx

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Blah, blah, blah. I can't answer a simple question, so I just run off at the mouth to camoflage the fact that I'm not answering the question. Blah, blah, blah....
...
 
R

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You probably haven´t 30 outs..... :confused::confused:
 
califantasy

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jesus christ gdrileyx. an "out" is a poker term which means a card that will give you the best hand, or at least the likely best hand

you can say you have "15 outs on the flop". you can say you have "15 outs twice". but you cannot say you have 30 outs. the definition of the term "out" in poker is not subjective, you're just wrong, get over it

I hate to get involved in other people's wars, but this is 100% correct. Saying there are other ways to count outs, is like saying there are other ways to screw in a lightbulb. There probably are other ways to screw in a bulb, but they aren't widely accepted, and sound retarded to anyone else who is familiar with the subject.

That said, you won't know how many outs you have until you have an idea of what he has. Do you know his range? Do you know he is drawing dead if you make your draw on the turn? Counting the heart that pairs the board is a mistake if you put him on a set, and counting the flush cards is a mistake if he is on a bigger flush draw. If you put him on AK[no heart], you are a fav, and should stick it all in, since you likely win more than half the time in the spot, and pot odds make it correct. There is still a slight chance he was making a move at the pot, and might even fold to the raise (very rare). Also, you mentioned it was a ring game, so you can always reload if he gets lucky. If you put him on KK or A4 hearts, muck now, and pick a better spot to lay your trap.

IMO, best thing to do is put him on a hand (or a couple of hands), and run it in the free calculator on cardplayer.com and make your raise/fold decision from there. I leave it running on my desktop, and find it invaluable when I'm faced with a tough decision.
 
WVHillbilly

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You're an idiot.

Read the above post by blanko for the definition of an out.

Now apologize to Stu.

Just how big of a favorite do you think you are in this hand?

What range are you assigning the villain?

Do you know what a range is? (Hint in this context it has nothing to do with deer or antelope).

Why in the **** are you sitting in a ring game with a half stack?

Why is a "Solid player" also sitting with a half stack?

Is this whole post just some ZOMGPOKERISRIGGED BS because I lost when I basically 53% equity.
 
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Chiefer

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I can't believe that there is an argument over the definition of an out. It's a pretty clear and defined poker term.
 
TPC

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Riley, What is your problem!?!?!? He is trying to help you. The way you count outs is dumb and wrong!!! Listen to Stu, he knows what he is talking about!!! If you want to disscuss a topic, talk about it. You don't have to be a jerk!!!!!
 
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cardplayer52

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You're on the button in a ring game with 67H. Solid player UTG comes in for 2BB. You call. Flop comes K5H, 4D. He pushes half his stack, 20BB blinds. You have him just barely covered. What do you do?

i don't see that many outs. i count an out as a cards that will win it for me. the way this hand is played i would guess he has at least top pair here. so as far as counting a 6 or 7 as an out is just not smart IMO. i never count more than 8 out for a flush if i think they may have a set already. so 8 flush outs i'd count and another 6 outs for a str8 so i would say you got 14 good outs here. or 28 if you count them like that 2 draws. IMO the best way is just count them and use a chart as to the odds of hitting. 47(unknown)-14(outs)=33(non-outs) / 12(out) = 2.75 to 1 against i fold.
 
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