Poker math

D

Desiatpoker

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+EV or - EV
Player 1 - unknown card
Hero with - 56o

Pot $57, board 7 8 A rainbow
Hero with open ender 8 outs
Player one bets $13-- pot now $70,
It should look like this
13:70= ruffly 5:1 20%
8/47 unseen cards 5.8 or 1:6 16%

But according to 4 and 2 rule I have 32% by river.
I'm confused here. If I'm getting 5to1 pot odds and I have 1 in every 6 cards to come I'm behind here right? But according to pot I need 20% equity for even play.
I dnt know where I'm wrong can anyone please correct me here and help me understand.
Thanks team
 
KristaK

KristaK

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hi hi
please what means "4 & 2 rule?"
thanks

(oh wait i know... yes multiply the outs times 4 for approximate percentage to attain the success and the on river its multiply by 2
sorrie i knew that)
 
Poker_Mike

Poker_Mike

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Desiatpoker said:
+EV or - EV
Player 1 - unknown card
Hero with - 56o

Pot $57, board 7 8 A rainbow
Hero with open ender 8 outs
Player one bets $13-- pot now $70,
It should look like this
13:70= ruffly 5:1 20%
8/47 unseen cards 5.8 or 1:6 16%

But according to 4 and 2 rule I have 32% by river.
I'm confused here. If I'm getting 5to1 pot odds and I have 1 in every 6 cards to come I'm behind here right? But according to pot I need 20% equity for even play.
I dnt know where I'm wrong can anyone please correct me here and help me understand.
Thanks team
Click to expand...


Your thinking is spot on for quick poker logic.

You only failed to consider that your (8/47 unseen cards 5.8 or 1:6) 16% runs twice for the two more cards coming. So 16% x 2 = ~32% because your 4/2 rule is by the river.

You are definitely getting pot odds here by the river and possibly even implied odds if you can get a full double up of your stack if you hit your straight.

In fact if your opponent does NOT have a pair then a 5 or 6 would also likely be outs for you. But, yes even without a pair - your opponent is likely ahead here.

But personally I'm not crazy about your hand because even if a 9 comes and you raise my turn bet and maybe I have AK - I have to consider folding and not paying off my opponent on an 78A9 board. So you would not get implied odds from me with some of your outs.

Also, if you miss on the river then you only have 6-high and you have to consider a bluff if the pot is big enough. But would your bluff make sense to motivate your opponent to fold?

Good luck !​
 
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