Playing the Odd's

I like to play by the odds of winning a hand and tend to play my cards only, mostly in hold-em and fold more winning hands then I should. I'm a half glass empty guy and a tight aggresive player. A 60/40 advantage is still a 40% chance of losing and I tend to underplay these kind of hands. I will also play the 40% angle in reverse especially when big stacked and have found this leads to big success or quick failure. I need to find a middle and can use any advice anyone would be kind enough to give.

Getting a general sense of how the others at your table are playing & then using position to your advantage regardless of the cards you hold would be something I would encourage you to work on.

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Kenzie 96 said:

Getting a general sense of how the others at your table are playing & then using position to your advantage regardless of the cards you hold would be something I would encourage you to work on.

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I agree completely knowing your hand ranking, along with knowing your table is huge in both online and physical play. Yes, sometimes there is a chance that a man next to you will wake up with AA and regardless to how well you played it will make no difference.

I never considered "knowing my table" either I would just play what I had and what the odds gave me. Ever since I started taking notes and paying closer attention I find it easier to play different hands based on odds and what I know about the opponent

I always play pretty loose at the beginning, taking more risks. The longer the tournament goes the tighter I make my play.

TAGs are never "half-empty." You may want to take another look inside, and be totally honest w/ yourself. Weak/tight, probably closer to where you are. I don't mean this, disrespectfully, at all. I used to be the half-empty type also, always afraid of the boogey man.

Your cards will only get you so far, especially in NL. As mentioned, learn your players' tendencies, patterns, steam points, and every other relevant factor in THEIR play. Yes, your play is important, obviously... but you can make 7,3o look like AA to your opponents, if you know what they're thinking, and how they view ("X").

Knowing the numbers: Worth a few bets, here and there.

Knowing the players on your right and left, trying to take your money: PRICELESS!

hornellfred said:

I like to play by the odds of winning a hand and tend to play my cards only, mostly in hold-em and fold more winning hands then I should. I'm a half glass empty guy and a tight aggresive player. A 60/40 advantage is still a 40% chance of losing and I tend to underplay these kind of hands. I will also play the 40% angle in reverse especially when big stacked and have found this leads to big success or quick failure. I need to find a middle and can use any advice anyone would be kind enough to give.

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Whether or not you are underplaying these types of hands depends on the situation.

If you are regularly folding your 60/40 edge toward the end game in a sit and go or multi, then you are underplaying your hands.

However, if you are folding at the beginning of a sit and go or multi when you think you might be 60/40 favorite, you think you could be worse (like 50/50 or even behind), and your entire stack is at risk, then folding to stay alive and protect your stack is probably not a mistake.

In a cash game, you should probably avoid getting your money in as a 60/40 favorite. You can do better than that and there is no fear of being blinded out. You can wait for a better opportunity to get a lot of money into a pot.

As for folding the best hand, if you aren't folding the best hand once in a while, you're not playing good poker. I've actually heard players brag to the table that they never fold the best hand. That means they often call with the worst hand. And folding the best hand a few times in a session is a lot easier on your bankroll than calling with the worst hand a few times in a session.

Here's an example of how you play the odds:

pokerstars GAME #18538714872: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/07/02 - 18:55:05 (ET)
Table 'Paracelsus' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: fpdc ($12.70 in chips)
Seat 2: cajunpoker74 ($9.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Kal3mins ($21.65 in chips)
Seat 4: KyleJRM ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 5: Estoque ($12.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Bozboss ($6.05 in chips)
Seat 7: Supie64 ($7.25 in chips)
Seat 8: XXX123 ($8.40 in chips)
Seat 9: wolmar ($9.70 in chips)
wolmar: posts small blind $0.05
fpdc: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KyleJRM [4s As]
cajunpoker74: folds
Kal3mins: raises $0.20 to $0.30
KyleJRM: calls $0.30
Estoque: folds
Bozboss: calls $0.30
Supie64: folds
XXX123: raises $0.80 to $1.10
wolmar: folds
fpdc: folds
Kal3mins: calls $0.80
KyleJRM: calls $0.80 When it comes to me here, I've got .80 cents more into a $3 pot, plus I'm pretty sure Bozboss, who is loosepassive, will call along with me, so I'll take a shot at a yahtzee flop. If I get it, I think XXX123 will stack to me (no reads on him yet, but at NL10 that's a safe bet) with the big PP he's representing.
Bozboss: calls $0.80
*** FLOP *** [7s 3s 2c]
Kal3mins: checks
KyleJRM: checks
Bozboss: bets $1
XXX123: raises $6.30 to $7.30 and is all-in

What do I do here? I've got no real hand...yet. But I've got 9 outs to the nut flush, 3 outs to a straight, and it's possible they're playing KK-JJ and the three aces are clean outs. So I shove, knowing I'll look like an idiot to most of the table if I whiff.

On A Pair Draw said:

In a cash game, you should probably avoid getting your money in as a 60/40 favorite. You can do better than that and there is no fear of being blinded out. You can wait for a better opportunity to get a lot of money into a pot.
.

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No no no no no.

Sorry, but that's the exact opposite of how you play. In a cash game, it doesn't matter if you get stacked, because you should be able to buy right back in no problem.

If you are in a cash game, you should be happy to get your money in as a 51/49 favorite all day long.

Thanks for the advice and I agree with it. I find it a lot easier to read players when I can look at them and see them as they play different types of hands. In internet games I am learning and realize that it is going to take a lot of playing to figure it out.

hornellfred said:

Thanks for the advice and I agree with it. I find it a lot easier to read players when I can look at them and see them as they play different types of hands. In internet games I am learning and realize that it is going to take a lot of playing to figure it out.

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It takes a lot of practice, as I am still learning, but once you have mastered it you will see dramatic improvements in your game.

KyleJRM said:

No no no no no.

Sorry, but that's the exact opposite of how you play. In a cash game, it doesn't matter if you get stacked, because you should be able to buy right back in no problem.

If you are in a cash game, you should be happy to get your money in as a 51/49 favorite all day long.

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I disagree with that. You don't have to flip coins with donks in cash games to make money.

If you could know for a fact that you were 51/49 favorite and your opponent would let you get it in that way a thousand times, then sure, that would be a great strategy for long term cash game success.

However, you seldom know with 100% certainty how far ahead you are. So if you THINK you are 60/40 favorite, you might not be. So you are putting money at risk in marginal situations where, theoretically, you can wait for a MUCH better place to put your money in against the same player....like when you are a 10 to one favorite.

If you flip coins in a cash game regularly hoping for a one or two point edge, you are giving bad players a huge advantage. They get to flip with you, and if they win, which they will do half the time, they get your stack. Now when you get a chance to get it in against that same guy when you are a 10 to one favorite, and you double up through him, you end up even for the night against him. Why would you bother to risk your stack the first time, when you could wait to just stack him the second time.

In general, cash game theory says that you should play tighter in cash games than in tourneys. The blinds are not going up and your ability to reload to the max is infinite. That comment you made about being able to reload any time you lose your stack is one reason you play tighter, not looser. You never get blinded out in a cash game. In a 5/10, you pay 15 bucks a round, and, if you just sat down, your stack goes down to $985 after the blinds pass you....you can pull $15 out of your pocket and reload to $1,000 and wait for the best places to put your money in.


Do you happen to have any sources for what you said? I'm always open to read new stuff, but my years of cash game experience and every poker book I have says you should play tighter in cash games and avoid coin flips.

On A Pair Draw said:

I disagree with that. You don't have to flip coins with donks in cash games to make money.

If you could know for a fact that you were 51/49 favorite and your opponent would let you get it in that way a thousand times, then sure, that would be a great strategy for long term cash game success.

However, you seldom know with 100% certainty how far ahead you are. So if you THINK you are 60/40 favorite, you might not be. So you are putting money at risk in marginal situations where, theoretically, you can wait for a MUCH better place to put your money in against the same player....like when you are a 10 to one favorite.

If you flip coins in a cash game regularly hoping for a one or two point edge, you are giving bad players a huge advantage. They get to flip with you, and if they win, which they will do half the time, they get your stack. Now when you get a chance to get it in against that same guy when you are a 10 to one favorite, and you double up through him, you end up even for the night against him. Why would you bother to risk your stack the first time, when you could wait to just stack him the second time.

In general, cash game theory says that you should play tighter in cash games than in tourneys. The blinds are not going up and your ability to reload to the max is infinite. That comment you made about being able to reload any time you lose your stack is one reason you play tighter, not looser. You never get blinded out in a cash game. In a 5/10, you pay 15 bucks a round, and, if you just sat down, your stack goes down to $985 after the blinds pass you....you can pull $15 out of your pocket and reload to $1,000 and wait for the best places to put your money in.


Do you happen to have any sources for what you said? I'm always open to read new stuff, but my years of cash game experience and every poker book I have says you should play tighter in cash games and avoid coin flips.

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You couldn't possibly be more wrong. Perhaps you are misunderstanding what people are saying. Well, you are right in the results but wrong in the reasoning.

"Coin flips" should be avoided, because if it's truly 50/50, you should be losing to the rake.

But there's never a need to wait for a better spot in a cash game if you have any sort of an edge at all, because the better spot later will be there regardless.

Do you think that if you lose to a bad player when you were slightly ahead, you won't get the chance to be ahead of him 80/20 later? Why not take both?

Any situation in which you are even slightly ahead should be taken in a cash game.

The reason you play tighter in a cash game is because you can afford to wait for situations where you are sure you have an edge, not just situations where you think you probably do. But if you definitely have an edge, it's insanity to pass it up.

"Why would you bother to risk your stack the first time, when you could wait to just stack him the second time."

Here is where you are going wrong. This isn't an either/or situation.

I don't have to choose between the two.

I can take a 51/49 situation with "my stack" now AND the 80/20 situation. I don't have to choose on or the other.

hornellfred said:

I like to play by the odds of winning a hand and tend to play my cards only, mostly in hold-em and fold more winning hands then I should. I'm a half glass empty guy and a tight aggresive player. A 60/40 advantage is still a 40% chance of losing and I tend to underplay these kind of hands. I will also play the 40% angle in reverse especially when big stacked and have found this leads to big success or quick failure. I need to find a middle and can use any advice anyone would be kind enough to give.

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Work on learning agression at the right time. You're never going to know that you are 60/40 or any other ratio to win/lose until after you see the villians hand. Pick your battles, don't let them pick you.

FryGuy14 said:

I never considered "knowing my table" either I would just play what I had and what the odds gave me. Ever since I started taking notes and paying closer attention I find it easier to play different hands based on odds and what I know about the opponent

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I just had to address this. If you don't pay attention to your opponent's play and only play "by the book" you might as well just quit right now! Glad to see Fry is starting to take notes. Using Pokertracker or similar programs with a hud will realy help your game too.

KyleJRM said:

You couldn't possibly be more wrong. Perhaps you are misunderstanding what people are saying. Well, you are right in the results but wrong in the reasoning.

"Coin flips" should be avoided, because if it's truly 50/50, you should be losing to the rake.

But there's never a need to wait for a better spot in a cash game if you have any sort of an edge at all, because the better spot later will be there regardless.

Do you think that if you lose to a bad player when you were slightly ahead, you won't get the chance to be ahead of him 80/20 later? Why not take both?

Any situation in which you are even slightly ahead should be taken in a cash game.

The reason you play tighter in a cash game is because you can afford to wait for situations where you are sure you have an edge, not just situations where you think you probably do. But if you definitely have an edge, it's insanity to pass it up.

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I think you are dealing in absolutes, when you never know for sure if you really are slightly ahead. If you think about typical 60/40, 55/45, or 51/49 situations in cash games, you’ll see that putting your stack in jeopardy there is usually the wrong move. They are usually marginal situations where you COULD be way behind, which are always avoided by good cash game players. Let me give you two examples from my own play and you can tell me if you would have put all your chips in the middle.

• Last Saturday I was playing 2/5 at about 3am and the table was very loose. There was one player in particular who was flashy with a lot of gold around his neck and on his fingers, and he kept pulling out a wad of $100 bills the size of my fist to re-buy every time he stacked off, which was often. He kept buying in short and then shoving all in with ace high or 20 if it was limped to him…this lost him his stack several times, but he doubled up a few other times.

I was the first to limp in with 88 in middle position. The rest folded to the blinds and the SB limped. Flashy action man was on the BB and he shoved for something like $180. I was 95% sure that he had 20 or something like A9 or AJ, because that’s the kind of hand he had shoved with before and because when he picked up KK a while back, he played it slow, like morons always do. HOWEVER, there was a chance he would be shoving with 99, TT, or JJ in that same position. So in my mind, there was a 5% chance that he could have me over a barrel. I folded, so did the SB, and flashy action guy showed me KJs….I would have been a 51% favorite to win the hand with $5 of dead money in the pot. Bad fold?

Now if I was on the BB and he was on the SB and everyone folded and he shoved his KJs and turned the cards face up, you would be right. I should call with 88 and take my 51% advantage to the bank.

But you always have to weigh the possibility that you are behind against your level of surety that you are slightly ahead. That’s risking your stack in marginal situations is wrong in cash games.

• Two days ago I was playing another loose 2/5 game and I picked up AQ on the BB. Everyone folded to the button and he raised it up to $50. I had seen him button raise with crap hands all night and again, I was a little better than 90% sure that I had the best hand. And I was 100% sure that if I shoved he would have called because he only had $200 behind his 50. The reason I was 90% sure was that there is a 2% chance at a full table that he had AA or QQ and a greater chance that he had KK or AK. But even if I was wrong, I wouldn’t be that far ahead anyway if he had a K in his hand, which was likely. So I let him have my blind. He lifted up his cards to look at them before he mucked and he had KT…I would have been 58% to win if I had shoved all in.

Again, I had to decide if my level of surety that I was a slight favorite was greater than the chance I was behind to take the risk. Marginal situations should be avoided, so I fold and wait for a better spot to get my money in. Later on I stacked him anyway and he went home.



At any rate, if you have any articles or can point to any books that don’t say you should avoid marginal situations in cash games, I’d be glad to read them and get back to you on my thoughts. Everything I have read says both my plays were good plays.

If his range was as you described it (88+,A9s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo) and you had 88, you were slightly behind his range (46.5-53.5) and it would have been a bad call.

Again, yes you should play tight in cash games. But if know your villain's range of shoving is the above, and you have TT instead of 88, and you fold, then you are losing expected value.

"Tighter" in cash games means tighter, not waiting for the nuts. In a tournament situation, you might find yourself open shoving 97s if the blinds, stack sizes, position and such warrant, which is something you'd never do in a cash game.

adventurebound said:

Work on learning agression at the right time. You're never going to know that you are 60/40 or any other ratio to win/lose until after you see the villians hand. Pick your battles, don't let them pick you.




I just had to address this. If you don't pay attention to your opponent's play and only play "by the book" you might as well just quit right now! Glad to see Fry is starting to take notes. Using Pokertracker or similar programs with a hud will realy help your game too.

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I know this should be in a different thread. I started using PT3 but I have no I dea of what I am supposed to be looking at or what infomation on the HUD will actually help my game. Can someone give me a link or direct me to a place with a video or something? I got Stoxpoker free PT3 tutorial but it didn't show me how to use the program. It only featured the updates.