Originally Posted by dcor
First off, this is only 12k hands. I think the standard is around at least 30k. So see if variance sorts this one out on its own first. I will say though, one thing that stands out to me is your Agression Factor. Its way way too high. As well, your graph shows this by the ol' red line. Whats going on here is you are taking down the pots, but more than likely taking down the pots on the flop and turn when people are willing to fold. They, on the other hand, are getting value from you when you fire on the river and they have you beat. Most likely from overvaluing your hands. Most people are in the negative on the red line....(just an FYI.) But all that really matters is that you are ahead on the green line. I would recommend turning down the agression a little and also....so far from what I'm seeing, it doesnt seem to be a great strategy to open from the sb 100% of the time against nits....you are -12bbs from this position.
Yep, not many hands it's pretty hard to put decent volume in at my current situation.
IMO the AF is ok, better too agg than passive IMO, however maybe I do stab too often on the river. Looking at AF on different streets may help me determine that (can post if anyone's interested). I try to do the 'bet with air/nut hands/strong SDV hands and check back the middle pairs/weak SDV hands'.
As for opening from the SB i'm pretty confident in this. For starters, if I folded every SB my bb/100 would be -50, so opening is gaining me ~32BBs/100. Also mathematically if someone in the BB folds 40% of the time you can open 100% range in the sb profitably (assuming you don't pay them off post flop).
Extending this, if SB and BB fold 20% each to steals (so 40% combined) you can open any BTN 100% of the time to be neutral EV too.