The paradox of the "4 and 2" rule

CistaCista

CistaCista

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As a beginning player, i read about the "4 and 2" rule everywhere I turned, and soon adopted it into my game. As you know, the rule says that when deciding to call, you can more or less multiply your outs by 4 on the flop, by 2 on the river, so see if you have pot odds.

Here is the paradox: when you have the betting hand, it is NOT advised to use the 4-2 rule. General advise is make a pot-sized bet, which often falls well within the 4-2 rule.

An example:
Hero has TPTK after the flop and bets the pot, which means villain would have to chip in 33% of the pot. Villain has a flush draw, and by using the 4-2 rule he sees he has 36% chance of winning. Ergo he calls.

I started this topic in the Learning forum, as I thought someone could easily tell me what to do. Turned out differently.
It seems to me now that the 4-2 rule has little merit and we are closer to a 2-2 rule. In other words, on the receiving end we should call MUCH fewer hands on the flop than what for instance I have done so far.

The reason is mainly that when calling the flop, you will also have to call on the turn - unless you are already allin. And therefore you will end up paying more than the 33% of the final pot. You can call it "reverse" implied odds(?).

What do you think?
 
adognamedboo

adognamedboo

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for the most part multiplying your outs to give you what you believe to be a winning hand should be 2.1 times the available outs on the river and doubling that for the turn..As a rule say for a flush draw post flop is 39% which isn't string enough to bet more than 33% of the pot post flop..That amount of a bet also gives seasoned players the idea that you want them to call. This may cause a fold from the other players and won't damage you too badly if you don't catch. If you catch then bet the pot. If you dont catch then betting a remaining player almost half in will cause a fold more often than not..
 
benevg

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the rule of 2 (for calling bets on the turn) is generally used at all times, since it is usually fairly straightforward - you are either getting the right odds, or you are not.

the rule of 4 is only fully applicable if you are not going to be putting any more money in on the turn (i.e. if one of the players is all-in or nearly so). then, you know your odds of hitting by the end of the hand. this situation appears more often in tournaments, due to the more short-stacked nature of the game there. in cash games, where everyone is relatively deep-stacked, this rule cannot be so widely used.

if you are facing a big bet on the flop, with a good chance that the turn will bring another bet, you are usually better off folding on the spot. of course, there are other things you could (and perhaps should) consider, like if you are in position, the option to just float, but those are more strategy-based decisions, and not mathematics-based ones.
 
Samango

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The reason is mainly that when calling the flop, you will also have to call on the turn - unless you are already allin. And therefore you will end up paying more than the 33% of the final pot. You can call it "reverse" implied odds(?).

I know that I brought up the subject to you, of implied odds and reverse implied odds in your other thread, but, just as benevg has done with his point about strategic reasons to float a bet on the flop, these are actually just pointing out some of the reasons why you might deviate from the strict mathematical 'expressed odds' of the 2&4 rule

For the purposes of understanding the odds of the 2&4 rule better and how you would apply it to 1 street or 2, it is probably best to treat these deviations as seperate issues for study

I would say that you have got a good handle on it now, but don't dismiss the 4 rule completely, it is still useful to know your odds of completing a flush on the flop even if you have to treat each bet on each street seperately
For instance if you are short stacked and facing a bet post flop, this could be key in deciding whether to push all-in
 
Sven Deuceman

Sven Deuceman

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inversaplied odds?@ op, tell ya i was thinking this same thing this morning in a hand.
 
Stu_Ungar

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The 4 part of the 2 4 rule only applies if you see both the turn and river for one bet
 
B

buster999

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4 is for the odds of hitting on two streets
2 is for one street.
 
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