I thought of this thread today when playing a hand. Some background, the BigBlind has a history of making large over-bets pre-flop and post-flop. He's done this too often for it all to have been for value. For that reason I suspect that he's likely to see over-bets as "bluffy" and weak.
Holdem No Limit ($0.05/$0.10)
1: Hero $7.74
2: BigBlind $11.12
3: UTG N/A
4: Button N/A
*** BLINDS ***
Hero Posts Small Blind $0.05
BigBlind Posts Big Blind $0.10
*** PREFLOP ***
Hero Hole Cards:
UTG Folds
Button Folds
Hero Calls $0.05
BigBlind Checks
I limp the SB pre-flop, when it's probably a raise against most other players, because the BB is very likely to 3-bet large and I'll be unable to call. I expect my limp to be raised, but I can likely call most of his raises. He doesn't raise, which is unexpected, but a cheap flop with a small pair is always nice.
*** FLOP ***
Pot ($0.20)
Hero Bet $0.40
BigBlind Calls $0.40
Well, this is a good flop, but we're very deep. The SPR is over 38. It is very unlikely that I can get stacks in with normal pot sized bets. So, let's plan for 2x-Pot, 2x-Pot, ~Pot and see how we do. I think we'll get called down with any Ace. He's also really aggressive and might try and take the pot away, but I don't expect that because he usually is the aggressor and I haven't seen him play when someone else is leading.
*** TURN ***
Pot ($1.00)
Hero Bet $2.00
BigBlind Raises $6.00
Hero went All In $7.24
BigBlind FoldsI expected to get called here by most A-x hands, and be able to shove $5.24 into the $5 pot on the river. But, the BB clearly read this as a bluff and put in the third bet for me. I stick the rest of the money in and the BB quickly folds.
*** END OF FOLDED GAME ***
Hero won $12.28 from Pot 1
Hero had $1.24 returned from uncalled Pot 2
Over-bet for value, for sure, in these games. I might have been able to make $2.60 with normal pot-sized bets, maybe even less because he might have folded to normal bets. Instead, I get $6.50 when he gets confused and spazzes out. In retrospect, I might have got the last little bit of money by calling the turn raise and giving him one more shot to bluff.