Outs and pot odds. Suited connectors and draws.

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davidhoyle107

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Seeing as most suited connectors won't hit even when they do land a draw, would it make sense to play them at all? If I have a suited connector, let's say 98. A k comes up on the board with a flush draw, no pair. Villain raises half pot, call or fold. In this situation, one would have to fold. With only 9 outs, our chances of getting rebet are high, and chances of hitting less than 50. Well be losing more than winning calling down. Therefore, we should only play strong hands so as to have a chance of hitting a straight draw, high flush draw, plus 6 high outs. That could make it worth calling if we hit top pair the turn or river.
 
SPANKYSN

SPANKYSN

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Yes, I agree with you, however, there are times when you can play low to mid suited connectors and get value, depending on your position at the table, player stacks and relative placement vis a vis the bubble in a tournament, or just changing up your game from time to time to avoid collecting only the blinds when you hit AA on the button.
 
HennieP

HennieP

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People often get pot odds vs win odds wrong. If you have 9 outs you only have 18% chance to hit your card on the turn and 36% to hit your card by the river IF there will be no further bets. In other words if you're all in on the flop you have a 36% chance to win with 9 outs (rule of 2 and 4). If you're not all in you only have 18% chance to hit on the turn and if betting continues another 18% on the river to hit.

Why is this important? Because if you subtract the pot odds from your win odds you know if it's a profitable call or not. So if you call 50% pot odds and you have 18% chance to make your flush on the turn it means -32% profitability. In other words you're giving away 32% of your chips every time you make this call here.
 
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braveslice

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So odds basics: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/pot-odds/

We face half pot bet, what are our pot odds?
(1/2pot)/(2pot) = 25%

With only flush draw what is our card equity:
9 outs = 18%

Do we have direct odds? No because to call odds (pot odds) are larger than card equity.

Do we have implied odds?

If we call the flop we lose EV=0.18*1.5pot-0.82*0.5*pot = 0.27pot-0.41pot = -0.14pot

That is to say, to gain enough implied odds we need to win 14% of the original pot size during 2 streets to break even. Making calling flop no brainer in most cases.

If we face one pot size bet, EV = 0.18*2pot-0.82*1*pot = 0.36pot- 0.82pot = -0.46pot

Now this warrants a bit thinking, and decision should be make according the villain we are playing against. Given the new pot size is large on the turn = 3pot = turnpot, we need to win half turnpot size bet on later streets about every 6th time. If villain has A this goal should be easy.
 
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davidhoyle107

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So odds basics: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/pot-odds/

We face half pot bet, what are our pot odds?
(1/2pot)/(2pot) = 25%

With only flush draw what is our card equity:
9 outs = 18%

Do we have direct odds? No because to call odds (pot odds) are larger than card equity.

Do we have implied odds?

If we call the flop we lose EV=0.18*1.5pot-0.82*0.5*pot = 0.27pot-0.41pot = -0.14pot

That is to say, to gain enough implied odds we need to win 14% of the original pot size during 2 streets to break even. Making calling flop no brainer in most cases.

If we face one pot size bet, EV = 0.18*2pot-0.82*1*pot = 0.36pot- 0.82pot = -0.46pot

Now this warrants a bit thinking, and decision should be make according the villain we are playing against. Given the new pot size is large on the turn = 3pot = turnpot, we need to win half turnpot size bet on later streets about every 6th time. If villain has A this goal should be easy.
One thing people forget is that normally you have more odds than what's on the table. If I have 18%, and I land the turn, they'll normally raise or at least call a raise. This gives us bette3 implied odds to call.
 
HennieP

HennieP

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I'm sorry but I don't see how you call here. You have 18% chance to get your card on the turn. This means you have a 82% chance to NOT get your card on the turn. So if you play this exact scenario 5 times you will only hit your flush on the turn 1 time (theoretically). The other 4 times you will either have to pay again to see the river or fold. The same odds remain true for the river if you miss the turn. You again only have a 1 out of 5 chance to catch your card.

If we go on 25% pot odds to call and subtract that from our win odds we still have a EV of -7% on the turn and again on the river if we miss the turn. So you end up losing chips in the long run by making these calls.
 
andreigabor

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So odds basics: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/pot-odds/

We face half pot bet, what are our pot odds?
(1/2pot)/(2pot) = 25%

With only flush draw what is our card equity:
9 outs = 18%

Do we have direct odds? No because to call odds (pot odds) are larger than card equity.

Do we have implied odds?

If we call the flop we lose EV=0.18*1.5pot-0.82*0.5*pot = 0.27pot-0.41pot = -0.14pot

That is to say, to gain enough implied odds we need to win 14% of the original pot size during 2 streets to break even. Making calling flop no brainer in most cases.

If we face one pot size bet, EV = 0.18*2pot-0.82*1*pot = 0.36pot- 0.82pot = -0.46pot

Now this warrants a bit thinking, and decision should be make according the villain we are playing against. Given the new pot size is large on the turn = 3pot = turnpot, we need to win half turnpot size bet on later streets about every 6th time. If villain has A this goal should be easy.
Your reply will really help me a lot. Thank you !
 
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MrTerek

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I'm sorry but I don't see how you call here. You have 18% chance to get your card on the turn. This means you have a 82% chance to NOT get your card on the turn. So if you play this exact scenario 5 times you will only hit your flush on the turn 1 time (theoretically). The other 4 times you will either have to pay again to see the river or fold. The same odds remain true for the river if you miss the turn. You again only have a 1 out of 5 chance to catch your card.

If we go on 25% pot odds to call and subtract that from our win odds we still have a EV of -7% on the turn and again on the river if we miss the turn. So you end up losing chips in the long run by making these calls.


U can fold every time when u get FD, your choise...
 
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Diamiaen

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When you want to play suited connectors you should always try to play small pots to hit straight/flush.
When you get into situation that you have flush draw and someone raises half pot, it's not worth calling cause you are calling 50% of pot bet to hit 25% chance for flush.

In my opinion that call can be good only when u are big stack and playing more looser style.
 
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